FRAMING THE PROBLEM AND THE PROBLEM STATEMENT

The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021 75

MILITARY PLANNING

The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021 75

by Lieutenant Colonel Matthew Prescott

United States Army

Advis or y Te am

NATO Joint Warfare Centre

HEN MILITARY HEADQUARTERS do not properly understand

the operating environment or do not correctly frame the problem,

it oen leads to an oversimplication of the root causes that are

driving instability in a region. As crisis response planning continues,

this oversimplication leads to headquarters developing generic

military response options, predictable operational designs, and

limited operational actions to aect the relevant conditions needed

to reach the military end state. is article argues that framing

the problem is the most important step prior to an organization

developing their method of achieving success in an operation.

Photo by NATO

►►►

FRAMING THE

PROBLEM AND

Crucial to the Operational Planning Process

THE PROBLEM

STATEMENT

76 The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021

"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"

"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."

"I don't much care where."

"Then it doesn't matter which way you go."

The conversation between Alice and the Cheshire Cat

Alice's Adventures in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll

Introduction

A recurring challenge seen throughout the

lifespan of an exercise developed by the Joint

Warfare Centre (JWC) is a training audience's

diculty with understanding the strategic and

operational problem(s) created as part of the

exercise scenario. Exercise scenarios are com-

plex and cover both contemporary military

and non-military challenges within the operat-

ing environment. When military headquarters

do not properly understand the environment

or do not correctly frame the problem, it of-

ten leads to an oversimplication of the root

causes that are driving instability in a region.

As crisis response planning continues, this

oversimplication leads to headquarters de-

veloping generic military response options,

predictable operational designs, and limited

operational actions to aect the relevant con-

ditions needed to reach the military end state.

Although many nations and military

services have dierent processes for plan-

ning military operations, conducting mission

analysis is oen considered the most impor-

tant step. is article argues that framing the

problem, traditionally a doctrinal step in mis-

sion analysis, is the most important step prior

to an organization developing their method of

achieving success in an operation. e natu-

ral next step, following an organization fram-

ing the problem, is the development and ap-

proval of a problem statement that states what

the organization is trying to accomplish, thus

providing a focus to ensure planning eorts

are aligned in the same direction. Currently,

in NATO doctrine this is problematic because

developing a problem statement is not a formal

step at any echelon (strategic, operational, or

tactical). With no compass to steer an organi-

zation towards the desired end state, develop-

ing a comprehensive approach and maintain-

ing unity of eort to solve complex problems

will remain extremely dicult.

is article has three aims: 1) inform NATO

military practitioners on the importance of

framing the problem, 2) describe why NATO

should consider incorporating the develop-

ment of a problem statement as a doctrinal

step in mission analysis, and 3) reinforce that

framing the problem and the development of

the problem statement should occur at all ech-

elons to increase understanding, synergy, and

unity of eort across the joint force.

Framing the Problem

Across Echelons

In today's increasingly complex and multi do-

main military operations no echelon, from a

squad to a joint force command headquarters,

will have a single problem to solve. Having a

clear understanding of the major challenges and

problems that are present within an operational

►►►

WRITING A PROBLEM STATEMENT

ABOVE: Warfare development syndicate at the JWC Vision 2025 workshop. Photos by JWC PAO

The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021 77

►►►

environment begins at the start of planning

activities and remains throughout execution

of an operation.

Although subordinate units

should trust the analysis provided by their

higher headquarters, this does not negate the

need for each echelon to understand the op-

erational environment and analyze the major

challenges from their perspective.

Initial strategic guidance normally pro-

vides a description of the unacceptable con-

ditions in an environment. However, the root

causes of these conditions may not be clearly

articulated to operational and tactical level

headquarters. erefore, the rst task of each

headquarters is to understand the problem in

order to visualize potential solutions.

Achieving understanding requires two

activities: framing the problem and mission

analysis. Each echelon in NATO doctrine has a

dierent name and sequence to understand the

environment and frame the problem during

the NATO Operational Planning Process. At

the strategic level, understanding comes dur-

ing the "develop a strategic appreciation of the

crisis" step and involves contribution from the-

atre component commands. At the operational

level, military organizations "frame the opera-

tional level problem" during mission analysis.

Within Phase 1 at the tactical level, military

units "understand the situation and problem."

To develop a thorough understanding of

the problem, NATO doctrine stresses the need

for each echelon to provide feedback on their

understanding and appreciation of the stra-

tegic environment during the initial stages of

planning. is feedback enables SHAPE to de-

velop recommended military response options

that provide the best military advice to politi-

cal decision makers. As the military progresses

into execution of an operation, each headquar-

ters across all echelons must have processes in

place to continually evaluate their understand-

ing of the environment and reframe their as-

sessment of the problem. rough vertical and

horizontal information sharing, each echelon

has a responsibility to report changes in the

environment to increase shared understanding

and enable any adjustments to the plan.

Framing the Problem

Albert Einstein is famous for stating that, "if I

were given an hour to solve a problem, I'd spend

55 minutes thinking about the problem and

ve minutes thinking about the solution." e

information needed to understand the prob-

lem depends upon how one denes it, and the

solution depends upon how one understands

the problem, or how one answers the question:

what is causing this problem?

Taking deliberate

steps to frame the problem serves as a baseline

for learning throughout a headquarters.

Framing the problem begins with col-

laborative sta analysis, but does not fully take

shape until the commander is integrated into

the process. e goal of framing the problem

and developing a problem statement is un-

derstanding all essential and relevant actors,

tendencies, tensions, potentials, and trends in

the operational environment. rough com-

mand group and sta analysis and dialogue,

a headquarters must understand and analyze

the complex contextual situation in the envi-

ronment and develop a logical well-structured

working hypothesis.

Developing this logic starts with asking the

right questions. Some example questions to

analyze and answer with the command group

are the following:

• What is the dierence between the

unacceptable state of an operational

environment and the desired end state?

• What is preventing the command from

reaching the desired end state?

• What needs to change versus what

doesn't need to change?

• What conditions do other actors want

to achieve that are unacceptable to us?

• What are the threats, opportunities,

and challenges?

• What identied tensions will preclude us

from achieving our end state conditions?

• What are the similarities between other

actors' desired end-state and ours that

may oer opportunities for synergy?

• What risks will we impose on the

environment if we do (or do not)

achieve our desired end state

conditions?

“Framing the

problem begins

with collaborative

staff analysis, but

does not fully take

shape until the

commander is

integrated into

the process.”

WRITING A PROBLEM STATEMENT

ABOVE: An advisory team meeting during STEADFAST DEFENDER 2021. Photo by JWC PAO

78 The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021

Asking and answering the right questions

through analysis and collaboration enables a

headquarters to determine what military and

non-military actions are achievable and what

is not. As questions about the environment

are answered, it is common for headquarters

to develop link diagrams, a system-of-systems

analysis, and graphically depict trend analyses

on maps to visually display areas of tension

and opportunities throughout an operating

area. rough analysis of the environment and

critical thinking, framing the problem enables

learning and a shared understanding across

the sta.

Other steps needed to properly frame

the problem from each echelon is reviewing

historical analysis, reviewing previous les-

sons identied, as well as reviewing strategic

and political guidance. Mission command and

clarity of ones' mission are only achieved once

guidance and direction is provided. However,

sometimes strategic and political level guid-

ance does not provide the level of clarity a

subordinate headquarters requires. When this

occurs, planners must look beyond the initial

direction and guidance and analyze other rel-

evant sources to enable subordinate echelons

to clearly understand the higher headquarters'

desire. Additional guidance may come from

political speeches, transcripts from NATO

Summits, strategic strategy documents, and

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more recently posts on ocial social media

sites. Taking the time to deliberately frame the

problem provides a headquarters the valuable

analysis needed to transition into the other

steps of mission analysis. With compressed

timelines common during planning activities,

headquarters should develop and rehearse the

processes they will use to frame the problem.

e sta and command group can then prac-

tice their process to ensure it is t for purpose

and developed in a timely manner.

In summary, framing the problem attempts

to answer the question: what is the organiza-

tion trying to accomplish? e advantages of

framing the problem as one of the initial steps

in mission analysis enables a headquarters to

focus the majority of their eort in determin-

ing the relevant and essential aspects that need

to be solved to reach the military end state.

e output of framing the problem should be

a well-dened problem statement approved by

the commander. e problem statement then

provides a focus that fuses planning eorts to-

wards solving the problem.

Once this step is completed, the com-

mander takes ownership of the problem state-

ment, which helps facilitate a commander's

dialogue with higher and subordinate head-

quarters to ensure understanding and consen-

sus across the joint force.

Developing a

Problem Statement

ere are three key inputs to assist planning

groups as they transition from mission analy-

sis to course of action development: a prob-

lem statement, mission statement, and com-

mander's intent. As stated earlier, the problem

statement describes the key issues that must

be solved in the operational environment to

reach the desired end state. e mission state-

ment describes what problem an organization

needs to solve and why. Lastly, commander's

intent describes the methods the organization

will use to solve the problem statement and ac-

complish the assigned mission.

During the mission analysis brieng, all

evidence and analyses presented to the com-

mand group is in direct support of the problem

statement. Just as each echelon has a mission

statement, they also require a problem state-

ment. Developing a problem statement is cur-

rently not a step during mission analysis in

NATO doctrine or the SHAPE Headquarters

Comprehensive Operational Planning Direc-

tive (COPD); however, the development of a

problem statement is becoming more main-

stream and desired by NATO military com-

manders. For example, students conducting

the NATO School's Strategic Operations Plan-

ning Course develop and brief their problem

statement to the lead senior mentor, who repli-

cates the commander.

ere is no directed length for a problem

statement, so it is incumbent upon the sta to

know how their commander likes to receive in-

formation. However, there are three character-

istics that make an eective problem statement

that should be described in narrative form:

• e ideal or desired conditions

• e current reality in the environment

• e consequences, or "so what" if no

action is taken

If possible, the problem statement

should also describe the timeframe needed to

solve the problem so that it best conveys the

headquarters' understanding of the problem.

Developing a problem statement takes

practice, experience, and command group

involvement. rough practice and collabora-

tion with the command group, a sta learns

how to convey only the essential information a

ABOVE: Coordination with the higher headquarters during the exercise planning process; a virtual visit to the JWC

by Admiral Joachim Rühle, SHAPE Chief of Sta, hosted by Rear Admiral Jan C. Kaack. Photo by Chris Hill

WRITING A PROBLEM STATEMENT

The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021 79

commander needs to know to understand the

environment and approve the problem state-

ment. e commander will then use the prob-

lem statement as one of the key documents to

develop their commander's intent. e key is

to identify the essential problems associated

with the relevant operational variables, ex-

amine relationships among the problems, and

then synthesize the analysis into a narrative

that aids the commander's thinking, and in-

forms the overall planning process.

To assist the reader, below are some examples

of problem statements.

WRITING A PROBLEM STATEMENT

BELOW: (From left) Yongsan Garrison,

Republic of Korea, photo by Lee Min-hw.

Yorktown Campaign by John Trumbull,

oil on canvas (1820). Brigadier General

Douglas K. Clark, JWC Deputy Commander

and Chief of Sta, during the rst All Hands

Call in 2021, which was held virtually on

February 5, as one of the largest internal

information exchange and teambuilding

events via the Internet. Photo by JWC PAO

►►►

EXAMPLES OF PROBLEM STATEMENTS

Blue text depicts the ideal or desired conditions. Black text describes the current realities in the environment. Red text depicts

consequences, or the "so what". Lastly, underlined portions emphasize key points in the problem statement.

Korean Peninsula

Modern Day

Problem Statement

U.S. Forces Korea and the Combined

Forces Command seek to maintain a

stable balance of power on the Korean

Peninsula, one that deters North Korean

provocations, defends South Korean

territory, and allows South Korea to

prosper economically. North Korea,

however, actively attempts to undermine

these goals. As a result of its crumbling

economy, its inability to feed its own

people, and its reliance on illicit means

of maintaining control of its population

through propaganda and coercion, North

Korea engages in a calculated effort to

raise tensions in order to win foreign

concessions. It does this, primarily, by

actively developing nuclear weapons,

expanding the range of its ballistic

missiles, and committing occasional acts

of violence against the south. Even if

the Alliance succeeds in deterring North

Korea from conducting a major attack,

the continuance of such provocations and

other acts of deance serve to destabilize,

not only the Korean Peninsula, but the

larger region as a whole.

General George Washington

Yorktown Campaign (1781)

Problem Statement

Although the Continental Army retains

possession of large areas in the 13

Colonies, American stagnated efforts to

regain key terrain have resulted in poor

morale, indecisive recruiting efforts, and

a loss of faith in the American Congress.

This is mainly due to historical poor

coordination between the French Navy

and American Land Forces and limited

supplies and funding for the Continental

Army. The hub of British Power remains in

New York City and their naval superiority

has enabled them to secure key port cities

throughout the colonies to maintain their

economy of force missions. However, with

British General Lord Charles Cornwallis'

forces now conducting an operational

pause on the Yorktown Peninsula, there

is an opportunity to isolate and defeat a

large British Army in Virginia if the French

Navy can dominate the Chesapeake Sea

area and land forces can reach Yorktown

in time.

Return-to-Work (COVID-19)

June 2020

Problem Statement

Due to the Joint Warfare Centre's (JWC)

reduced manning regulations since

mid-March 2020, any gap in information

and knowledge management within

the organization will affect its mission

performance, while the Centre continues

to adapt to the global crisis. During this

period of teleworking, conditions and

priorities within the JWC programme

of work have changed. As the JWC's

pre-pandemic programme of work

activities return, there is a need to inform

and recalibrate the staff on the revised

programme of work through clear

direction and guidance. Additionally,

once conditions allow the JWC to

resume programme of work activities,

there will remain multiple national, higher

headquarters, and host nation regulations

that must be adhered to.

80 The Three Swords Magazine 37/2021

Developing a problem statement pro-

vides a headquarters the compass they need to

ensure planning eorts are focused and headed

in the same collective direction to solve the

problem. During mission analysis and course

of action development, the problem statement

ensures that: 1) the mission statement is ad-

equately written with the correct essential tasks

and purpose to achieve the military end state, 2)

commander's intent and direction and guidance

describe the methods the organization will use

to solve the problem statement and achieve the

assigned mission, and 3) the development of the

operational design describes the conceptual ap-

proach for how the organization will solve the

problem statement and achieve the needed con-

ditions to reach the military end state.

Conclusion

Although the initial strategic guidance a sub-

ordinate headquarters receives is prompted by

symptoms that are unacceptable to the NATO

Alliance, the dynamics of the root problem re-

quire more analysis across all echelons. ere-

fore, the rst task of each headquarters is to

understand the problem in order to visualize

possible solutions.

ENDNOTES:

1 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Allied Joint

Doctrine 5 (AJP-5) Allied Joint Doctrine for the

Planning of Operations (Brussels, Belgium: NATO

Standardization Oce, 2019), 4-1 thru 4-2.

2 Training and Doctrine Command Pamphlet 525-

5-500, The U.S. Army Commander's Appreciation

and Campaign Design (Fort Monroe, VA: U.S. Army

Training and Doctrine Command, 2008), 21.

3 North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Allied Procedural

Publication 28 (APP-28) Tactical Planning for Land

Forces (Brussels, Belgium: NATO Standardization

Oce, 2018), 2-1.

4 TRADOC PAM 525-5-500, 14.

5 Ibid., 25.

6 Maj. Erik K. Kober, "Bridging the Planning Gap:

Linking Conceptual Army Design to Military Decision-

Making" (Master's Thesis, U.S. Army Command and

General Sta College, 2010), 45.

7 U.S. Army War College, Campaign Planning

Handbook (Carlisle Barracks, PA: United States

Army War College, 2020), 69.

8 Marine Air Ground Task Force Sta Training Program

Pamphlet 5-0.2, Operational Planning Team Leader's

Guide (Quantico, VA: MSTP Center, 2017), 29-30.

9 Problem Statement provided by the Joint Forces Sta

College: Joint and Combined Warghting School –

Strategy and Campaign Design ("Dene the Problem"

lecture).

10 Problem Statement provided by the author during a

Yorktown Campaign-Battleeld Sta Ride.

11 Problem Statement provided by the author as part

of the JWC COVID-19 Operational Planning Team.

12 Joint Forces Sta College, The Joint Sta Ocer's

Guide (Norfolk, VA: National Defense University,

2019), 3-40.

“Developing a

problem

statement

provides a

headquarters

the compass

they need to

ensure planning

efforts are

headed in the

same collective

direction.”

Framing the problem is relevant to all

levels of war (strategic, operational, and tac-

tical) because all levels view the environment

through dierent lenses. Framing the problem,

with an approved problem statement narrative,

enables commander dialogue across echelon

to clearly dene the needed actions to solve the

problems and reach conict resolution.

If NATO does adapt their doctrine to

include the development of a problem state-

ment as part of framing the problem, NATO

organizations will likely improve the additional

outputs required during mission analysis and

course of action development. is will also cre-

ate more opportunities for headquarters' sta

and command group interaction, which is an

integral part of developing a problem statement.

Presently, the diculties in properly

framing the problem have led many NATO

commands during recent JWC exercises to

oversimplify the problem leading to predictable

military response options and an operational

design with little hope of creating favorable

conditions to reach the military end state. In to-

day's increasingly complex environment, where

peace, crisis, war, and stabilization are oen

blurred, oversimplifying the problem presents

increased risk to your operation and inade-

quately organizes the processes needed to drive

the commander's decision-making process.

Framing the problem and the develop-

ment of a problem statement are key steps

in mission analysis. e problem statement

forms the foundation for which all solutions

WRITING A PROBLEM STATEMENT

are developed.

When these steps are com-

pleted correctly, a military headquarters better

understands the complexities throughout the

environment, is able to develop a plan with a

reasonable chance of success, and puts pro-

cesses in place to better adapt planning when

eects are not achieving the desired results.

With a problem statement in-hand, a head-

quarters has the focus they need to ensure

planning eorts head in the right collective

direction to solve the problem. As such, a well-

dened problem statement is crucial to the op-

erational planning process.



ABOVE: Wargaming at the JWC. Photo by JWC PAO