ACCIDENTS
WILL HAPPEN
A review of military drone crash data as the UK considers
allowing large military drone flights in its airspace
Drone Wars UK is a small British NGO established in 2010 to undertake research and advocacy around the
use of armed drones. We believe that the growing use of remotely-controlled, armed unmanned systems is
encouraging and enabling a lowering of the threshold for the use of lethal force as well as eroding well
established human rights norms. While some argue that the technology itself is neutral, we believe that drones
are a danger to global peace and security. We have seen over the past decade that once these systems are
in the armoury, the temptation to use them becomes great, even beyond the constraints of international law.
Asmore countries develop or acquire this technology, the danger to global peace and security grows.
Published by Drone Wars UK
Written by Chris Cole
June 2019
Designed: Chris Woodward
www.chriswoodwarddesign.co.uk
Drone Wars UK
Peace House, 19 Paradise Street
Oxford, OX1 1LD
www.dronewars.net
[email protected]
Note: The term ‘drone’ is used interchangeably with ‘Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)’
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Contents
Executive Summary 5
1 Introduction 7
2 Drone Crash Data 9
2.1 An overview of the data
3 Analysis by operators 13
3.1 The United States
3.1.1 US official crash statistics
3.1.2 Where US drones have crashed
3.2 Europe
3.2.1 The UK
3.2.2 Other European countries
3.3 Other countries
4 Examining the causes of drone crashes 23
4.1 Mechanical failure
4.2 Electrical failure
4.3 Engine failure
4.4 Pilot error
4.5 Lost link
4.6 Other causes
5 Comment: Opening of UK airspace
to large military drones 33
5.1 Recommendations
Drone Crash Dataset 2008–2019 37
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5
• The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is procuring up to twenty-six of the newest version
of the Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) from US manufacturer General
Atomics. While the company calls the new armed drone ‘SkyGuardian’, the UK
hasdecided to name it ‘Protector’. The MoD intends this NATO Class III UAV to
bein service from around 2023 and wants it to be able to fly within UK airspace.
• While there has been a great deal of public and parliamentary debate about the
increasing use of small drones and their impact on public safety and security –
particularly after the incursions at Gatwick and Heathrow airport – there has been
so far little public or political discussion about the implication of opening up UK
airspace to large military drones.
• Drone Wars UK has compiled a dataset of more than 250 crashes of large
(NATO Class II and III) military drones that have occurred over the past decade
(2009-2018). The information has been drawn from official investigation
reports, freedom of information requests and press reports. Due to the secrecy
surrounding the use of these systems, it is highly likely that other crashes have
occurred that are not contained in the data.
• The majority of crashes in the dataset are of US drones, reflecting the
dominance of the US in using these systems. Out of the 254 accidents in the
database, 178 (70%) were being operated by various branches of the United
States military (with an additional two being operated by US civil security
organisations). The vast majority of these were drones manufactured by General
Atomics. Drones operated by nineteen countries appear in the crash dataset.
After the US, the UK appears most frequently with 14 crashes.
• 64% of the crashes took place while the drone was in mid-flight, while 20%
occurred at the point of landing. 8% crashed during the take-off phase, with a
small number of crashes (1%) taking place while the drone was taxiing along
the runway. For 7% of the recorded accidents, it is unknown at what stage the
crash occurred. The causes of approximately half of the crashes in the dataset
are given and include mechanical failure, communications problems (‘lost
link’), engine failure, weather problems and pilot error. While non-state groups
regularly claim responsibility for crashed drones, we attribute between five and
nine of the crashes in the dataset to being shot down.
• While some are keen to see the use of UAVs normalised, the number of crashes
indicates that the development of this technology still has a very long way to
go. Flying large aircraft remotely is extremely complicated and recent official
investigations into the crashes of British Watchkeeper drones found that the
complexity of the systems themselves was a factor in the crashes.
• To aid further discussion on this issue, Drone Wars is making a number of
recommendations including calling for an open, public review of the need
to use Protector in the UK for training purposes; that the independent Civil
Aviation Authority rather than the Military Aviation Authority have responsibility
for granting Protector permission to fly in UK airspace; and for the civil liberties
and human rights implications of the use of Protector drones for surveillance
purposes within the UK be investigated by MPs.
Executive summary
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In July 2018, US drone manufacturer General Atomics remotely flew one of its
SkyGuardian unmanned aerial vehicles from North Dakota across the Atlantic
and into a US air base in the Gloucestershire countryside. The drone was put on
static display during the Fairford air show that weekend and then boxed up for
itsreturn journey to the US in a cargo plane. The point of the innovative flight
wasnot, it seems, its appearance at the air display, but rather its appearance
inUK airspace.
SkyGuardian is the US company’s name for latest version of its armed Predator
drone, which the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is choosing to call ‘Protector’. Up to
twenty-six of the drones are being procured by the UK to replace its current fleet
of Reaper drones from around 2023. A key feature of the new drone is that unlike
its predecessors, it is being built to standards (from a construction point of view)
that will allow it to be certified to fly in UK airspace. However, that does not mean
that regulators will automatically grant it permission to do so. The July 2018
SkyGuardian flight into the UK required the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to put
Introduction
Despite the notion
gaining ground
that ‘the future is
drone’, airspace
regulators
across the globe
continue to have
serious concerns
about opening up
skies to remotely-
controlled systems
due to safety
issues
A Heron-1 operated by the Indian Air Force crashed soon after take-off in a residential
area on Dec 13, 2013. “We were inside the house, when we heard an explosion like noise.
We rushed out and saw the aircraft,” a resident told The Hindu. Credit: The Hindu
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in place extensive measures to ensure that no other aircraft were in the vicinity
of the drone’s flight path. Despite the notion gaining ground that ‘the future is
drone’, airspace regulators across the globe continue to have serious concerns
about opening up skies to remotely-controlled systems due to safety issues.
In some sectors where remotely controlled and autonomous technology is being
developed – such as self-driving cars in the automotive industry – the civil sector
is leading the way. However, in the aviation sector, where remote-control and
autonomy is seen as hugely important for the future transport of goods and
passengers, civil industry has taken a step back and is encouraging the military to
take the lead. The MoD’s plans to fly Protector drones within the UK is being seen
as an important test case and is being watched carefully throughout Europe and
beyond.
Over the next 18-24 months politicians, regulators and industry will deliberate on
allowing Protector to fly within the UK as part of a wider question of opening up
UK air space to large military and civil drones. While the debate on small drones
being flown within line of sight (LOS) and their impact on security has begun
– particularly in the wake of the closure of Gatwick airport in December 2018 –
discussions on flying large UAVs beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) is largely taking
place behind closed doors.
This short briefing shines a light on the number of large military drone (NATO
Category II and III) crashes that have taken place over the past decade. Drone
Wars UK has long been involved in researching the use of these systems,
including tracking accidents, primarily to examine their proliferation but also to
aid consideration of safety issues. We have compiled details of more than 250
such crashes that have occurred in the past decade and the dataset is being
published in this briefing in order to aid discussion and encourage debate.
As well as some initial analysis on the data we also make a small number of
recommendations to aid discussion.
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Drone Wars UK’s drone crash dataset contains details of just over 250 large
military drone accidents that have occurred over the past decade. The full
list appears as an appendix to this report and is also available online at
www.dronewars.net/dronecrash2009-2018.
While there continues to be disagreement within the military and beyond about
the classification of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), most adhere to the
NATO system which divides them into three broad categories based on weight.
Class I includes micro, mini and small drones, all under 150kg. Class II are
drones that weigh over 150kg but less than 600kg, often referred to as ‘tactical’
drones. Finally, Class III drones are those, including the US Predator and Reaper,
that weigh over 600kg.
Table 1: NATO UAV Classification
Class Category
Normal
Operating
Altitude
Normal
Mission
Radius
Example
Platforms
Class I
<150kg
Micro <2kg Up to 200ft 5 km (LOS) Black Hornet
Mini 2–20kg Up to 3000ft 25 km (LOS)
Scan Eagle,
Skylark, Raven
Small >20kg Up to 5000ft 50 km (LOS)
Luna,
Hermes 90
Class II
150-600kg
Tactical Up to 10,000 ft 200 km (LOS)
Watchkeeper,
Sperwer, Heron-1
Class III
>600kg
Medium Altitude,
Long Endurance
(MALE)
Up to 45,000 ft
Unlimited
(BLOS)
Reaper,
Hermes 900
High Altitude, Long
Endurance (HALE)
Up to 65,000 ft
Unlimited
(BLOS)
Global Hawk
Strike/Combat Up to 65,000 ft
Unlimited
(BLOS)
Source: Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Terminology, Definitions and Classifications, Ministry of Defence, JDN 3.10
Our dataset details crashes of Class II and Class III UAVs. These are primarily
operated by military forces, but crashes of such systems being operated
by companies that develop them, or by civil security forces (such as US
Department of Homeland Security), are included.
Drone Crash Data
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The information comes from three primary sources: official accident investigation
reports, responses to freedom of information requests (including those resulting
from an investigation by The Washington Post) and individual press reports.
While each entry in the dataset includes a link to a source for further information,
the vast majority of crashes have multiple sources. However, it is acknowledged
from the outset that the dataset is unlikely to be complete and it is highly likely,
due to the secrecy surrounding the use of these systems, that other crashes will
have occurred which have not been publicised.
Before examining the information by operator and then by cause, it is worth
taking an overview of the data.
2.1 An Overview of the Data
There are 254 drone crashes detailed in our dataset. Thirty-five (14%) are Class II
with 219 (86%) being Class III drones. For a full list of the type of drones included
in the dataset and their Class, see Figure 3 below. The vast number of US drone
crashes in the database reflects the dominance of the US in using these systems.
Out of the 254 accidents in the database, 178 (70%) were being operated
by various branches of the United States military (with an additional 2 being
operated by US civil security organisations).
Table 2: Class II and II Military UAV Crashes 2009-2018, US vs Non-US
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
Non-US
2 8 6 8 7 6 12 9 6 12 76
US
24 19 23 27 21 21 25 6 8 4 178
Total
26 27 29 35 28 27 37 15 14 16 254
While a cursory glance at the dataset would appear to show that the number
of US drone crashes have declined over the past three years, official aviation
mishap statistics issued by the Pentagon show that in fact they remain relatively
stable. What appears to be happening, then, is that the public reporting of US
crashes at the time they occur has declined (see section below on US crashes). It
is worth noting that the number of UAV crashes reported in the broad statistical
information issued by the US about its military aviation crashes closely matches
the data we have gathered about US crashes (at least up to 2016), demonstrating
the overall validity of the dataset.
Figure 1: Drone Wars UK Dataset crashes by year: US vs Non-US
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
US Non-US
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 20182014
In 2009 only two
other countries
besides the US
had crashes of
these types of
drones. In 2018,
nine countries
appear in the
data alongside
the US. Overall
19 countries had
crashes of large
drones
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The crash data also reflects the increasing proliferation of large military drones
over the past decade. In 2009 only two other countries besides the US had
crashes of these types of drones. In 2018, nine countries appear in the data
alongside the US. Overall 19 countries had crashes of large (Class II & III) drones.
In addition, we have included drone crashes when they were being operated by
manufacturing companies, and two drones which crashed in 2014 while being
operated by the UN. There is some dispute about whether a small number of the
drones that crashed were being operated by the Syrian armed forces or whether
they were in fact being operated by Iran. We have attributed these as ‘Syria?
Iran?’ in the dataset.
Table 3: Class II and III Military UAV Crashes by Operator, 2009-2018
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
Australia
2 2
Canada
1 1
China
1 1
Companies
1 1 1 3
Ecuador
1 1
France
1 1 2
Germany
2 1 3
Greek
1 1
India
1 1 1 3 1 2 2 11
Iran
1 2 3
Israel
1 3 2 2 8
Italy
1 1
Nigeria
1 1
Pakistan
1 2 1 3 1 8
Saudi Arabia
1 1
Syria? Iran?
1 2 1 4
Turkey
1 1 1 2 2 7
UAE
1 1
UK
1 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 14
UN
2 2
Unknown
1 1
US
24 19 23 27 21 21 25 6 8 4 178
Total
26 27 29 35 28 27 37 15 14 16 254
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Figure 2: Number of Operators appearing in Drone Crash Dataset, 2009–2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 20182014
After the US, the UK has had the largest number of drone crashes reflecting its
long involvement in operating this type of system. Other states with a significant
number of crashes include India, Pakistan, Israel and Turkey.
From the data, we can see that the majority of drone crashes (64%) occur while
the drone was in mid-flight, with 19% taking place during landing and 9% during
take-off phase. Further details on the causes of crashes are in Section 4.
Figure 3: UAVS by Type and Class in the Drone Crash Dataset
Falco
GIDS Uqab
Heron-1
Nishant
S-100 Camcopter
Searcher-II
Seeker 200
Shahed-123
Spewer
Watchkeeper
A160T Hummingbird
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Class II
Class III
Anka
Bayraktar
CASC CH-3
Global Observer 1
Hammerhead
Hermes 450
Heron TP
I-GNAT
K-Max
MQ-1 Predator
MQ-170 Sentinel
MQ-5B Hunter
MQ-8B Fire Scout
MQ-9 Reaper
Global Hawk / Triton
Shahed-129
Wing Loong 1
MQ 1C Gray Eagle
MQ-1B Warrior
Unknown
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3.1 The United States
The fact that the United States is the most prolific user of armed drones is
reflected in the crash data. Out of 254 accidents documented in the database,
178 (69%) were being operated by the United States. Importantly, while it
appears from the dataset that the number of US drone crashes has declined in
the past three years, official statistics issued by the Pentagon contradict this, with
the decline apparently due to reduced public reporting of drone crashes, rather
than a drop in the number of crashes itself.
3.1.1 US Official Crash Statistics
Before further analysis, it is worth noting that the various branches of the US
military issue statistical data regarding aviation crashes (or as they call them
‘mishaps’) which include some US UAV crashes.
1
Drone Wars UK has compiled
this information into the following tables. However, it is important to note several
issues. Firstly, the statistics cover the US Federal Fiscal Year, which begins on
1October of the previous calendar year and runs through to 30 September
(so, for example, FY 2015 runs from 1 October 2014 to 30 September 2015).
Secondly, the statistics do not cover all Class II or Class III UAVs, although the
main ones are included. Finally, the US military divides aviation accidents into
various classes. For an unmanned aircraft, a ‘Class A’ Mishap, is one that costs
$2 million or more (over $1 million prior to FY10), a ‘Class B’ mishap is one that
costs more than $500,000 but less than $2 million ($200,000 to $1 million prior to
FY10). For our purposes we are including only Class A mishaps as lesser damage
is likely to mean that the accident was not that serious. Helpfully, the US Air Force
also gives statistics for aircraft that were destroyed (but not, unfortunately, other
branches). These statistics are set out below in Table 4a – 4d.
1 See US Air Force Safety Center: https://www.safety.af.mil/Divisions/Aviation-Safety-Division/Aviation-
Statistics/; US Army: UAS Class A-C Mishap Tables published in FlightFax: Newsletter of Army
Aircraft Accident Prevention (various issues), https://safety.army.mil/ON-DUTY/Aviation/Flightfax;
US Department of the Navy: Class A Aviation Mishaps: https://www.public.navy.mil/NAVSAFECEN/
Documents/statistics/execsummary/Mishap_Stats.pdf
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Table 4a: Official US Air Force Category II and III UAV Class A Mishap statistics,
FY2009–2018
Year Predator (MQ-1) Reaper (MQ-9) MQ-4 Global Hawk Total
Class A
Mishap
Destroyed
Class A
Mishap
Destroyed
Class A
Mishap
Destroyed
Class A
Mishap
Destroyed
2009
13 10 4 1 1 0 18 11
2010
7 6 1 1 0 0 8 7
2011
12 11 2 0 1 1 15 12
2012
9 9 4 3 0 0 13 12
2013
9 9 3 2 0 0 12 11
2014
8 7 4 4 0 0 12 11
2015
7 6 11 9 0 0 18 15
2016
7 7 5 5 0 0 12 12
2017
4 4 6 5 1 1 11 10
2018
0 0 2 2 1 1 3 3
Total
76 69 42 32 4 3 122 104
Table 4b: US Army Category II and III UAV Class A Mishaps FY 09 -18
Year (MQ-1)
Class A Mishap
Hunter (MQ-5)
Class A Mishap
Total Class A
Mishap
2009
N/A N/A N/A
2010
2 3 5
2011
2 3 5
2012
5 1 6
2013
5 2 7
2014
6 1 7
2015
3 1 4
2016
12 2 14
2017
10 5 15
2018
3 1 4
Total
48 19 67
Table 4c: US Navy Category II and III FY09-18
Year MQ-4 Triton
Class A Mishap
2009 0
2010 0
2011 0
2012 3
2013 1
2014 2
2015 0
2016 0
2017 0
2018 1
Total 7
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Table 4d: Combined US official statistics on Category II
and III UAV Mishaps FY 2009–2018
MQ-1 (Predator
/ Gray Eagle /
Warrior)
MQ-9 (Reaper)
MQ-5
(Hunter)
MQ-4
(Global Hawk/
Triton /BAMS)
Total
2009
13 4 N/A 1 18
2010
9 1 3 0 13
2011
14 2 3 1 20
2012
14 4 1 3 22
2013
14 3 2 1 20
2014
14 4 1 2 21
2015
10 11 1 0 22
2016
19 5 2 0 26
2017
14 6 5 1 26
2018
3 2 1 2 8
Total
124 42 19 11 196
In order to compare the official US sets of figures with our dataset, we have
re-tabulated the public detail we have collected about US drone crashes in our
dataset into US Fiscal Year (i.e. from 1 October of previous year to 30 September)
and these are summarised in Table 4. While numbers are broadly similar (the
details of MQ-9 Reaper drone crashes for example are very close) it should be
remembered that the US official statistics detailed only include Class A mishaps.
The Drone Wars UK dataset is based on crash details that have appeared in
public and these are likely to also include a small number of crashes that were
designated as Class B. Since 2016, public details of US drone crashes are much
scarcer, particularly as The Washington Post has ended its work on crashes of US
Army/Special Forces drone crashes. In addition, the public details in our dataset
include crashes of US drones that are not included in the official statistics such as
RQ-170 Sentinel, K-Max, S-100 Camcopter and the IGNAT.
Therefore, while an apparent decline in US drone crashes in the dataset since
2016 appears to be due to lack of public information (rather than a lack of
actual crashes) official figures released for FY2018 show only 8 US military drone
crashes compared to a five-year average of 23. This may indicate an actual
decline or that the statistics given for 2018 are only an interim figure which
will be updated as official crash investigation reports are released often 18-24
months later. Of relevance here too perhaps is the retirement by the US Air Force
of the MQ-1 Predator in March 2018, although variants of it are still in use by the
US Army.
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Table 5: US Category II and III UAV Crashes in DWUK Dataset FY 2009–2018*
MQ-1
(Predator /
Gray Eagle /
Warrior)
MQ-9
(Reaper)
MQ-5
(Hunter)
MQ-4
(Global Hawk
/ Triton /
BAMS)
Other Class II
& II UAVs*
Total
2009
16 4 3 1 1 25
2010
11 1 3 3 18
2011
16 3 3 1 1 24
2012
15 5 1 5 26
2013
13 4 3 20
2014
15 4 1 2 22
2015
11 10 1 22
2016
7 6 13
2017
3 2 1 1 7
2018
0 1 2 3
Total
107 40 11 6 16 180
*Note these figures have been adjusted to match the US Fiscal Year (1 Oct – 30 Sept) and therefore includes five
crashes from calendar year 2008. Where details are unclear whether the drone crash involved a Predator or a
Reaper, it is included in ‘Other’ along with crashes of RQ-170 Sentinel, K-Max, S-100 Camcopter and IGNAT. Does
not include Predator and Reaper operated by the US Department of Homeland Security and the US Custom and
Border Patrol respectively.
In addition, it is possible, using the official US Air Force statistics, to compare
crashes of unmanned systems with traditionally piloted aircraft. For the 10 years
between US FY 2009 and 2018, the USAF reports 118 Predator and Reaper
drone Class A mishaps. By contrast, it reports 88 Class A mishaps for all eight of
its bomber and attack aircraft.
Table 6: USAF Bomber and Attack Aircraft vs Unmanned Predator/Reaper Class A
Mishaps FY 2009–2018
B2 B1 B-52 A-10 F-15 F-16 F-22 F-35 Total
MQ–1 /
MQ–9
2009
1 2 3 1 7 17
2010
1 1 3 5 8
2011
1 2 1 5 1 10 14
2012
2 3 4 3 12 13
2013
1 1 1 7 1 11 12
2014
2 1 1 4 12
2015
3 6 1 10 18
2016
1 2 5 1 9 12
2017
1 1 1 4 1 8 10
2018
1 1 1 2 5 2 12 2
Total
0 4 5 5 17 39 15 3 88 118
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3.1.2 Where US drones have crashed
An examination of US drone crashes by location shows the extent of US drone
warfare over the past decade with US crashes taking place in 18 different
countries. In addition, the location of more than a dozen crashes have been
classified by the Pentagon. From the available data, it is clear that Afghanistan
has been the centre of US drone war over with 43% of US crashes taking place
there. While US drone crashes in Afghanistan (as elsewhere) appear to have
declined in the past three years, again this is likely to reflect the absence of
USinformation releases on its UAV crashes since 2016, rather than a decline
inactual crashes.
What will surprise many is that more than a fifth (38) of the US drone crashes
inour database have taken place within the United States itself. Our analysis
of these crashes shows that 58% were on training flights and 26% were taking
partin test flights, with the remainder being either operational missions or
movement of aircraft from one base to another.
Other centres of US drone war are also clear from the crash locations, with Iraq,
Yemen, Somalia and Libya all featuring. What may be surprising, considering
the number of US drone strikes that have taken place there, is the low number
of crashes in Pakistan. However, crashes in Pakistan are likely to be within those
forwhich details have been classified by the Pentagon.
Other countries featured include locations where US drones are based near
theatres of war, such as Djibouti, Kuwait, Niger and the Seychelles. A US
A160THummingbird drone crashed in Belize while it was testing ‘foliage-
penetrating radar’.
What will surprise
many is that more
than a fifth (38)
of the US drone
crashes inour
database have
taken place within
the United States
itself. Our analysis
of these crashes
shows that 58%
were on training
flights and 26%
were taking part
in test flights
A US MQ-9 Reaper crashed in Nevada, Dec 5, 2012. Accident
Investigators attributed the accident to crew error. Credit: USAF
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Figure 4: Location by country of US drone crashes
Yemen
US
Turkey
Syria
Spain
Somalia
Seychelles
Pakistan
Off coast Africa
Niger
Mali
Libya
Kuwait
Italy
Iraq
Iran
Djibouti
Classifed
Belize
Afghanistan
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Table 7: Location of US Class II & III UAV crashes, 2009–2018
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total
Afghanistan
11 8 10 15 10 10 9 1 1 1 76
Belize
1 1
Djibouti
4 1 1 3 9
Iran
1 1
Iraq
6 3 1 1 4 1 16
Italy
1 1
Kuwait
1 1
Libya
1 1 1 3
Mali
1 1
Niger
1 1
Off coast Africa
1 1 2
Pakistan
1 1
Seychelles
1 1 2
Somalia
1 1 2
Spain
1 1
Syria
1 1 2
Turkey
1 1 1 3
US
6 6 4 4 6 5 2 1 2 2 38
Yemen
1 2 1 4
Classified
1 3 1 2 2 1 3 13
Total
24 18 23 28 21 24 22 6 8 4 178
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3.2 Europe
Six European countries appear in the dataset, reflecting the growing number
of European countries operating such systems. This is likely to increase over
the next few years and several more European countries, including Spain,
The Netherlands and Belgium are in the process of acquiring large military
unmanned systems.
Figure 5: European operated drone crashes
0
3
6
9
12
15
Italy UKTurkeyGreeceGermanyFrance
3.2.1 The UK
After the United States, the country with the largest number of military drone
crashes in the dataset is the UK, with 14 accidents. The UK began operating the
unarmed Israeli Hermes 450 drone in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2007, with take-off
and landing being handled by contractors. Although it is understood that a total
of 10 UK operated Hermes 450s crashed in Afghanistan, three were outside the
time frame of this report as they occurred before 2009.
2
In 2007 the RAF began
operating the Reaper in Afghanistan with the first strike taking place in May
2008. In April 2008 a UK Reaper crashed in Afghanistan and was subsequently
destroyed in a UK airstrike but that is again outside the time frame of this report.
Two other UK Reaper crashes were revealed in a 2015 FoI response.
3
Both of
these aircraft were repaired.
The UK signed a contract with Israeli company Elbit Systems in 2005 to develop
a new British unmanned aerial vehicle based on the Hermes 450 named
‘Watchkeeper’. The development of the drone was plagued with problems and it
missed multiple in-service deadlines. It was finally deployed operationally for the
first time to Afghanistan in the weeks before the UK deployment came to an end
in December 2014. Five Watchkeepers have crashed in the UK since 2014.
In April 2019, the Defence Safety Agency released Service Inquiry reports into
the two separate Watchkeeper crashes that occurred in 2017. The detailed
reports give important insight into the difficulties of flying unmanned systems
2 Defence Minister Andrew Robathan MP, told Parliament that 8 Hermes 450’s had crashed between
2007 and 2012. https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmhansrd/cm130124/
corrtext/130124c0001.htm
3 MoD FoI Response of 29 June 2015. See https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/
uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/470011/20151021-Incidents_ScanEagle_Hermes_
Watchkeeper.pdf and https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/
attachment_data/file/470023/20150629-AttachmentScanEagel_Hermes_Reaper.pdf
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and both are well worth reviewing.
4
The report into the fourth Watchkeeper
crash (on 24 March 2017) was also tasked to look at similarities with previous
crashes. It noted that while the specific causes of the crashes were different,
there were common themes. These included “incomplete understanding of
the full system and how sub-systems integrate” by both the MoD and Thales
(the company which developed and maintains Watchkeeper in conjunction
with Elbit Systems); the “need to improve collection and analysis of data”
from flights; and the “plethora and complexity of information” that needs to
be understood by operating crews, which it says “would challenge the most
competent manned-aircraft pilot.”
5
Table 8: UK Category II & III UAV accidents 2009-2018
Date Type Tail No. Where Source Note
Jun 13, 2018 Watchkeeper N/A Aberporth Press Destroyed
Mar 24, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed
Feb 3, 2017 Watchkeeper N/A Irish Sea Press Destroyed
Nov 2, 2015 Watchkeeper WK006 Salisbury Press Destroyed
Oct 16, 2014 Watchkeeper WH031 Aberporth FoI Withdrawn in
Jan2015
Oct 4, 2013
Hermes 450
ZK517 Afghanistan
FoI Retired in 2014
Sep 5, 2013 Hermes 450 ZK518 Afghanistan FoI Repaired and
retired in 2014
July 22, 2012 Hermes 450 ZK506 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
Mar 31, 2012 MQ-9 Reaper ZZ203 Afghanistan FoI Repaired
Oct 2, 2011 Hermes 450 Zk515 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
Jun 3, 2010 Hermes 450 ZK512 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
May 21, 2010 Hermes 450 ZK516 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
May 2, 2010 MQ-9 Reaper ZZ202 Afghanistan FoI Repaired
Jun 2 2009 Hermes 450 ZK513 Afghanistan FoI Destroyed
3.2.2 Other European Countries
Besides the UK, five other European countries have large drone crashes in the
database: France, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Turkey.
A French Sperwer operated by the army crashed into a house in Northern
Franceduring a training exercise in 2016. Very fortunately, no one was injured.
An unarmed Reaper, operated by the French air force crashed in Niger as it
returned to Niamey airport in late 2018.
Three separate crashes of Heron-1 drones operated by the German military in
Afghanistan occurred in 2010 and 2011. The first, in March 2010, occurred while
the drone was taxiing on the runway, the pilot appeared to lose control and the
drone crashed into another aircraft.
6
The other two crashed in mid-flight and
4 Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK042) Unmanned Air Vehicle over Cardigan
Bay in West Wales on 3 February 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/service-
inquiry-report-into-the-loss-of-watchkeeper-wk042-unmanned-air-vehicle-over-cardigan-bay-in-west-
wales-on-3-february-2017; Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK043) Unmanned
Air Vehicle over Cardigan Bay in West Wales on 24 March 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/
publications/service-inquiry-report-into-the-loss-of-watchkeeper-wk043-unmanned-air-vehicle-over-
cardigan-bay-in-west-wales-on-24-march-2017
5 Ibid. See section 1.6.14
6 David Cenciotti, New video of drone crashing into a C-160 cargo plane in Afghanistan raises concern
over German UAVs safety, The Aviationist, 16 July 2013, https://theaviationist.com/2013/07/16/heron-
vs-c-160/
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were subsequently destroyed by air strikes.
7
Italy has been operating unarmed Predator and Reaper drones since 2004. One
crashed into the Mediterranean during a training flight in 2010 when operators
lost contact with the drone.
Turkey has a number of crashes included in the dataset since it developed its
indigenous drones the Anka and the Bayraktar. Some have crashed during
testing, but since they have become accepted into service a number have also
crashed on operations against Kurdish groups both within Turkey and in Syria.
Table 9: Other European drone crashes
Date Operator Drone Location of crash
Nov 2016 France Sperwer France
Nov 2018 France Reaper Niger
Mar 2010 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan
Dec 2010 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan
Nov 2011 Germany Heron-1 Afghanistan
Sep 2018 Greece Sperwer Greece
Jan 2010 Italy Reaper Italy
Mar 2011 Turkey Heron-1 Turkey
Sept 2012 Turkey Anka Turkey
Dec 2013 Turkey Anka Turkey
Aug 2016 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Turkey
Oct 2016 Turkey Anka Turkey
Feb 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Syria
Jun 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Turkey
3.3 Other Countries
Besides the US and European countries, twelve other countries appear in our
dataset, along with the UN and crashes of drones operated by companies.
Figure 6: Non-European/US drone crashes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Companies
UN
Unknown
UAE
Saudia Arabia
Pakistan
Nigeria
Israel
Iran? Syria?
Iran
India
Ecudaor
China
Canada
Australia
7 Gerhard Hegmann, German army drone Heron crashes in Afghanistan, Welt, 11 November 2013,
(Translated) https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article121775327/Bundeswehr-Drohne-Heron-zerschellt-
in-Afghanistan.html
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As the number of
nations operating
large armed
drones increases,
we are likely to
see an increasing
number of
conflicts in which
multiple states are
operating armed
drones, making
accountability for
strikes immensely
difficult
Of note is the large number of crashes of Indian-operated drones. While all the
types crashed are of the smaller Class II, the number of different types of drones
as well as the overall number (the third highest in the dataset) is significant.
Israel and Pakistan both have 8 crashes in the dataset but have a very different
history with drones. Israel has a long history of using large drones – longer
perhaps than the United States – and has exported a significant amount. Its
drones are in regular use against Palestinian targets in Gaza as well in Lebanon
and Egypt. It is perhaps surprising there are not more Israeli crashes in the
dataset.
Pakistan has a number of the smaller Class II drones in service and most crashes
are of this type. However, stung by continued US drone strikes in their territory,
Pakistan vowed to obtain and put into service a larger, Predator type armed
drone. It subsequently obtained Wing Loong UAVs from China, one of which
crashed in June 2016.
The dataset records three crashes of drones being operated by the Iranian
armed forces: two in Iran and one in Iraq. Four other Iranian drones are recorded
as crashing, three in Syria and one in Israel, although it is not clear if these were
being operated by Syrian or Iranian forces at the time. All of these four were
reported as being shot down – two by the US, one by Israel and one by Turkey.
Table 10: Countries with drone crashes by multiple states
Location
ofcrashes
States operating drones
Australia
Canada
France
Germany
Iran
Iran? Syria?
Israel
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
UAE
UK
US
Unknown
Total
Afghanistan
1 1 3 9 76 90
Iraq
1 16 17
Israel
1 5 6
Niger
1 1 2
Pakistan
8 1 9
Syria
3 1 2 6
Turkey
6 3 9
Yemen
1 1 4 1 7
In addition to crashes by states, the dataset records two drone crashes by the UN
and three by companies. The two UN crashes both occurred in the Democratic
Republic of Congo where the UN were undertaking peacekeeping missions.
Two of the company-operated crashes were on test flights, one (in 2011) in
the US where AeroVironment was testing its Global Observer 1 UAV, and one
in Italy (in 2016) where Piaggio were testing its Hammerhead drone. Both
drone development projects were brought to an end by the crashes. A 2012
demonstration flight of a Schiebel S-100 Camcopter by the company in South
Korea ended in tragedy when the drone crashed and killed an engineer and
injured two others.
Three states have been the location of crashes by two or more other nations:
Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen. As the number of nations operating large armed
drones increases, we are likely to see an increasing number of conflicts in which
multiple states are operating armed drones, making accountability for strikes
immensely difficult.
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Analysis of the data enables us to gain a good understanding of when, on
average, drone crashes take place. 64% of the crashes took place while the
drone was in mid-flight, while 20% occurred at the point of landing. 8% crashed
during the take-off phase, with a small number of crashes (1%) taking place while
the drone was taxiing along the runway. For 7% of the recorded accidents, it is
unknown at what stage the crash occurred.
Figure 7: When drone crashes happen
Unknown
Take-off
Mid-flight
Landing
Taxiing
1%
64%
8%
20%
7%
Alongside this, there are some details of the cause of the crash for just over half
(56%) of the crashes. While these details primarily come from official US accident
investigation reports either published online or obtained though Freedom of
Information requests – and are therefore heavily skewed towards US drone
crashes – the reasons are likely to be common across all drone crashes.
Although the reasons for the crashes are often summarised for brevity’s sake
(i.e. ‘mechanical failure’ or ‘lost link’) it should be noted that behind these broad
categories there are often multiple and complex causes for the crashes. It is
A brief look at the
causesof drone crashes
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also of note that there is no one single or main causes of crashes, but rather a
multitude of different reasons. Here, we look at some causes for the crashes and
include edited excerpts from US crash investigations where these broad causes
are given, with a link to the full report for further details.8
4.1 Mechanical failure
The most common reason for crashes (22%) is attributed to mechanical failure.
This includes failures of particular pieces of equipment such as a turbo-charger
or a propeller, to pieces of wings or tails becoming detached.
Examples:
8 November 2015 MQ-1B Predator Kuwait Mid-flight: Mechanical
At approximately 16:38, the recovery crew took handover of the aircraft
from the mission crew. The aircraft was returning early due to an Outside Air
Temperature sensor failure. The handover was uneventful. Over the next 15
minutes, the aircraft began a descent for landing and the crew started working
through appropriate checklist procedures for descent and arrival.
Evidence showed that the left tail and tail insert fell off the aircraft and
consequently the aircraft became uncontrollable. The aircraft entered an
unrecoverable spin and the impact destroyed the aircraft. The Abbreviated
Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of the evidence
that the cause of the mishap was the failure of the left tail clamp and/or left
tail clamp bolts. The loss of the left tail insert and the attached left tail surface
resulted in an unrecoverable departure from controlled flight, and the aircraft
crashed en route to the intended base of landing. The estimated cost of
aircraft and munitions is $5.3 million. [Full report]
27 June 2013 MQ-1B Predator Afghanistan Landing: Mechanical
On 27 June at 01:18 the aircraft departed Jalalabad air base. The crew flew the
aircraft uneventfully until 08:24 when the aircraft experienced a turbocharger
failure. The crew ran the appropriate checklist and initiated a return to base.
Between 08:45 and 09:01 the crew handed over to the launch and recovery
crew. The Air Traffic Control Tower reported winds within technical order limits
with variable headings and gusts. However, as the aircraft passed the location
of the runway threshold there was a very strong gust of wind, which resulted
in unsafe landing conditions. The pilot executed a go-around but was unable
to sustain flight. At 09.05 the aircraft impacted the ground approximately 800ft
past the departure end of the runway at Jalalabad.
The Accident Investigation Board found that that a combination of
turbocharger failure and a strong wind gust caused the mishap to occur. The
aircraft and one Hellfire missile (AGM-114) was destroyed upon impact with
the loss valued at $4,511,499.00. [Full report]
8 Note regarding US accident report: A ‘launch and recovery’ crew located where the drones are based
launch and land the drones via line of site communications before handing over to a mission crew
located in the US, which then operate the drone via satellite. All times given are ‘Zulu time’ (i.e. GMT).
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4.2 Electrical failure
13% of the crashes (for which we have cause details) are attributed to electrical
failures. These include failure of on-board power generators and various servo-
motors as well as the failure of wiring and cables bringing power to particular
pieces of equipment.
Examples:
4 Feb 2015 MQ-9A Reaper Off coast of Africa Mid-flight: Electrical
The aircraft took off at 05:30Z on 4 February 2015 and had an uneventful sortie
until approximately 08:35, when the aircraft’s starter-generator failed. The crew
reversed the flight direction of the aircraft and began its return flight to base.
The crew turned off several pieces of equipment that used electrical power
in an attempt to maximize battery life. At 10:32, the crew reported that the
batteries had 24 volts of power remaining when the aircraft was approximately
thirty miles from base. Based on the inability to guarantee complete control
of the aircraft during approach and landing, the crew was ordered by the
Joint Forces Air Component Commander to purposefully fly the aircraft into
international waters. At 11:33, the aircraft responded to pilot commanded
inputs and impacted the water. The Abbreviated Accident Investigation
Board found by a preponderance of evidence that the cause of this mishap
was a starter-generator failure. Loss of government property is valued at
$13,203,658.00. [Full report]
17 Aug 2017 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Electrical
The aircraft executed an unrecoverable flight manoeuvre after the aircraft was
transferred from the launch crew. The majority of the aircraft was destroyed
from a fire at the impact site.
General Atomics completed analysis on the cockpit data log recordings
and found the cause of the rapid unrecoverable manoeuvre was a failure
of an electrical cable that resulted in a loss of power in the left tail flight
control surface. This loss of power moved the left tail electrical components
to the maximum trailing-edge-down deflection, resulting in a non-flyable
configuration. The estimated cost of the aircraft and environmental clean-up
cost was $5,380,813. [Full report]
A British Watchkeeper drone on a training flight crashed at
Boscombe Down airfield on 2 November 2015. Credit: MAA
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4.3 Engine Failure
Engine failure is another primary reason given for drone crashes with 27% of the
crashes for which we have causes attributed to engine failure. However, these are
often caused by an oil or fuel leak or the loss of coolant.
Examples:
18 November 2015 MQ-9A Reaper Afghanistan Take-off: Engine
On 18 November 2015, at approximately 23:38 an MQ-9A Reaper assigned
to the 27th Special Operations Wing at Cannon Air Force Base and deployed
to Kandahar International Airport, crashed in an open field near the base after
declaring an in-flight emergency shortly after take-off.
The launch crew noticed high oil pressure, rising exhaust gas temperature,
and fluctuating torque immediately upon take-off. The crew reported the
emergency and attempted a recovery to the runway; however, complete
engine failure occurred on the crosswind leg at approximately 500 feet above
ground level. The aircraft glided to a crash landing as the crew attempted to
circle around to land. The impact destroyed the aircraft, four missiles, and one
bomb, resulting in a loss valued at $14,391,950.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of
the evidence the cause of the mishap to be a compressor bearing failure that
led to engine loss. [Full report]
26 April 2014 MQ-1B Predator Afghanistan Mid-flight: Engine
On 25 April 2014 at 18:29, the aircraft took off from Jalalabad Airfield without
incident. Approximately 5.3 hours after take-off and 45 minutes after the crew
assumed control of the aircraft from previous crew, the aural warning tone
alarm sounded in the ground control station. Simultaneously, the warnings for
“low oil level” and “low oil pressure” appeared on the heads-down display.
The engine oil level had rapidly decreased from 76 percent to 35 percent
within a span of one minute and 54 seconds. The crew observed pieces of
material and fluid emanating from the aircraft at a rapid pace. The pilot turned
the aircraft in the direction of Jalalabad Airfield, while executing the Low Oil
Pressure Checklist. Seven minutes after the initial warning, the engine seized
completely. Shortly thereafter, the crew lost satellite datalink connectivity with
the aircraft. At the time it lost connectivity, the aircraft was at 14,500 feet and
descending in a glide. The satellite datalink was restored and remained
Engine failure reportedly led to the crash of a Bayraktar TB2 near Sanliurfa, Turkey on 24
August 2016 after it had conducted a surveillance mission in Syria. Credit: Dogan News Agency
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and descending in a glide. The satellite datalink was restored and remained
intact for approximately 14 more minutes. When it was apparent that the MA
would crash, the crew began to search for a non-populated area to land. Using
the camera, they looked down and identified a valley. Twenty to twenty-five
seconds prior to impacting the ground, the crew lost satellite connectivity with
the MA and never regained it back. The aircraft was destroyed upon impact.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found, by clear and convincing
evidence, that the cause of the mishap was an engine oil leak. The aircraft was
destroyed upon impact with an estimated loss of government property valued
at $4.61 million. [Full report]
Table 11: Phase of mission and causes of drone crashes extracted from DWUK
dataset
When Cause given
Take-off phase
Electrical failure 1
Mechanical failure 1
Engine Failure 2
Lost link 3
Pilot error 3
No details available 11
Total 21
Mid-flight
Electrical failure 15
Mechanical failure 25
Engine Failure 18
Lost link 16
Pilot error 8
Electronics failure 5
Weather 6
Bird strike 1
Shot down (5) / Possibly shot down (4) 9
No details available 60
Total 163
Landing phase
Electrical failure 2
Mechanical failure 5
Engine Failure 7
Lost link 3
Electronics failure 2
Pilot error 7
Software failure 3
Weather 1
No details available 20
Total 50
Taxiing on runway
No details available 3
Unknown
No details available 17
Total
254
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4.4 Pilot error
Crashes are attributed to pilot or crew error when decisions they make directly
lead to a crash. However, this is often in the situation of a crisis occurring when
crew have to make decisions in a very limited amount of time. In crisis situations,
crews are supposed to follow a procedure checklist but this appears to be
difficult in some circumstances. 13% of the crashes for which we have a cause are
attributed to pilot error.
Examples:
7June 2016 MQ-9A Reaper United States Mid-flight: Pilot error
At approximately 22:27, the crew undertaking a proficiency flight at Nevada test
range, gained control of the aircraft from the launch crew at 8,500 feet mean sea
level. At 22:28, when crew executed handover checklist items, they unknowingly
engaged the pre-set altitude and the aircraft began to climb. The sensor operator
advised the pilot, who was completing handover checklists, of the climb. The pilot
incorrectly believed there was an unexpected flight condition or malfunction,
switched from autopilot to manual mode and directed the aircraft to descend to
8,000 feet. The pilot also reduced power to the aircraft to avoid acceleration. The
pilot then resumed working on the handover checklist. However, the pilot had
not adjusted nose/pitch, which was positioned upward and the aircraft stalled.
Preoccupied with the handover checklist, the pilot did not observe the
Heads-Up Display gauges nor the audible and visual stall warnings. The sensor
operator advised the pilot that the aircraft was in a stall condition. The pilot did
not apply the Flight Manual stall recovery procedures, but instead, increased
power to the aircraft, which, due to the weight of the aircraft and its stalled
condition, caused it to spiral towards the ground. The aircraft impacted the
ground in the Nevada Test and Training Range at 22:29.
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of
the evidence the cause of the mishap was the combination of (1) the pilots
mis-prioritization to complete the handover checklist, and (2) the pilot’s
failure to observe prior warnings of reduced energy state and stall, and timely
implement stall recovery procedures. The aircraft was destroyed at a loss of
$11,063,339.00. [Full report]
4 April 2012 MQ-9A Reaper Seychelles Airport Take-off: Pilot error
On 4 April 2012, at 09:29 an MQ-9A Reaper Remotely Piloted Aircraft,
crashed into the Indian Ocean following a commanded engine shutdown and
attempted forced landing that occurred 4 minutes and 15 seconds after take-
off from Seychelles International Airport
The crew consisted of a contractor-furnished Operator and Sensor Operator.
The accident investigation board found by clear, convincing evidence that
the causes of the mishap were 1) the Operator commanded the engine off by
moving the Condition Lever to a position that closed the fuel shut off valve,
shutting off fuel to the engine and 2) the Operator and SO failed to complete
the landing gear extension sequence to include confirming that the landing
gear was extended. Additionally, the AIB president found by a preponderance
of evidence that Operator’s limited recent experience in launch procedures
substantially contributed to the mishap. The aircraft, Multi-Spectral Targeting
System (MTS), MTS Electronics Unit, and Special Operations Forces (SOF) pod
were destroyed, a loss value exceeding $8,931,000. [Full report]
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4.5 Lost link
Crews regularly lose contact with their drones due to communication or other
problems. Often the link is re-established within a short time. If it is not, the
drone is programmed to fly on auto-pilot to a particular point where it is hoped
connection can be re-established. However, on occasion the link is never re-
established and the drone flies on until it runs out of fuel and crashes or is shot
down.9 Fifteen per cent of the crashes for which we have a cause are attributed
to lost link.
Examples:
18 Sept 2012 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Lost Link
The remotely piloted aircraft took off from a forward operating base at 01:02.
Prior to the crew taking control of the aircraft there was difficulty with the
satellite link that allows the aircraft to communicate with its crew. However, the
issue was resolved by resetting the connection and the mission proceeded.
At approximately 09:19 the primary navigation system began to diverge from
the secondary navigation systems by approximately .1 nautical mile, to a
maximum divergence of .25 nautical miles. Normally these systems record the
same, or approximately the same, location for the aircraft. At 09:21 the aircraft
satellite data link disconnected (known as ‘lost link’). [Full report]
The pilot ran the appropriate checklist but was unsuccessful in re-establishing
a satellite link. At approx 09:26 the aircraft impacted about 3.25 nautical miles
south-southwest from the point of ‘lost-link’. The Accident Investigation Board
could not determine any cause of, or factor that substantially contributed to
this mishap. The aircraft was destroyed at an estimated loss of £4.4 million.
[Full report]
9 Air Force Shoots Down Runaway Drone Over Afghanistan, 14 Sept 2009, Popular Science,
https://www.popsci.com/military-aviation-amp-space/article/2009-09/when-drones-go-wild-air-force-
shoots-them-down
US military forensic experts investigate the remains of a Predator drone aircraft
crashed near Incirlik Air Base, Adana, Turkey, Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2016. Credit: AP
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4 Sept 2017 MQ-1B Predator Location Classified Mid-flight: Lost Link
The crew permanently lost the ability to monitor and control the mission
aircraft while flying medium altitude approximately 16 hours into the mission.
The location of the aircraft is unknown.
After normal crew changeover briefs, the mishap crew lost complete video
and command link (“lost link”) within one minute of sitting in the cockpit,
resulting in an inability to monitor and control the aircraft. At the moment of
the lost link event, the aircraft was operating normally at an altitude of 13,000
feet. The aircraft wreckage was not found from the time of the incident to the
completion of this investigation. The estimated cost of the missing aircraft is
$4.09 Million. [Full report]
4.6 Other causes
The other 10% of crashes were caused by electronics and software failure,
poorweather, enemy action, and in one case, a bird strike. Electronic
equipment and computer components are vital to the successful flight
of UAVsand when systems such as electronic navigation systems
or GPS receiversfail it can be catastrophic. Similarly, if the software
embedded in electronic equipment fails it can lead directly to a crash.
Drones are remarkablyvulnerable to weather changes and a number
of crashes documented in the dataset werecaused by lightning strikes,
iceaccumulationor strong winds.
Examples:
21 June 2017 RQ-4B Global Hawk United States Mid-flight: Electronics
On 16 June 2017, the RQ-4B Global Hawk arrived at Edwards AFB from
Beale AFB for a right-wing composite repair. Personnel from 9th Maintenance
Squadron completed the repair without complications. On 21 June 2017,
aftera pre-flight inspection, the aircraft took off at 12:21.
The aircraft climbed and flew to planned waypoints uneventfully. At
approximately 13:09, one of the two enabled Litton LN-100G navigators
(LNA and LNB) --specifically LNA--began producing erroneous navigational
data. Failing to detect LNA’s erroneous data, the MRPA rolled to a nearly
inverted position and entered a dive that resulted in an excessive airspeed.
The aircraft broke up and crashed in an unpopulated and rugged area
between Lone Pine, California, and Mount Whitney, California.
The Accident Investigation Board found, by a preponderance of evidence,
that the causes of the mishap were that the aircraft’s LNA produced
erroneousnavigational data and the aircraft’s navigation system did not
detect the erroneous navigational data. The aircraft, valued at $79 million,
wasdestroyed. [Full report]
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24 September 2015 MQ-1B Predator Libya Mid-flight: Weather
On 24 September 2015, at approximately 02:00, after normal maintenance
and pre-flight checks, the aircraft departed from an undisclosed air base for a
mission in an undisclosed location. At approximately 09:02, the aircraft entered
clouds just as the Ground Control Station (GCS) experienced momentary
interruptions (lost link) to the radio link the aircrew uses to control the MQ-1B.
Upon entering the clouds, the crew attempted to reverse direction of flight. The
crew visually detected ice on the aircraft and the camera. Aircraft systems also
detected the formation of ice on the aircraft. Turbulence and icing caused the
aircraft’s angle of attack and roll control to become erratic. The airspeed dropped
below stall speed, and the aircraft stalled causing it to lose link to the GCS
completely. At 09:04, the GCS received one data sample indicating the aircraft
was in an extreme nose-down attitude and had lost approximately 10,000 feet
of altitude. Based upon the last data sample and with the aircraft unrecoverable,
the crew suspected the aircraft had crashed. At 10:15, another aircraft operating
in the area confirmed the crash via video feed. The aircraft was destroyed upon
impact and the wreckage was not recovered. Damage to the aircraft is estimated
at $5,156,042
The Abbreviated Accident Investigation Board found by a preponderance of
the evidence that the aircraft skin, already cooled below freezing, flew into
clouds, which caused ice to accumulate on the structure. Icing and turbulence
resulted in degraded flight performance, and the crew was unable to regain
control over the MRPA prior to impact with the ground. [Full report]
Finally, nine drone crashes in the dataset are attributed to the drone being shot
down. Non-state groups regularly claim responsibility after a drone crash. For
example, in September 2015, an Islamic State affiliated group posted images of
a crashed MQ-1 Predator that it claimed to have downed.10 However, a USAF
Accident Report published in March 2016 detailed the cause of the crash to
havebeen weather related.11
10 Daniele Raineri, Un drone Predator è caduto su una zona dello Stato islamico in Libia, Il Foglio, 25
September 2015, https://www.ilfoglio.it/esteri/2015/09/25/news/un-drone-predator-e-caduto-su-una-
zona-dello-stato-islamico-in-libia-87897/
11 USAF Aircraft Accident Investigation Board Report of 24 September 2015 – published 25 March 2016,
http://www.airforcemag.com/AircraftAccidentReports/Documents/2016/092416_MQ1B_Undisclosed.
pdf
A US MQ-1 Predator crashed near Derna, Libya on September 24, 2015. Although ISIS claimed it had
downed the drone, a USAF investigation attributed the crash to weather. Credit: Social media screenshot
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As well as non-state group claims, several drones have been downed by states
including the US, Israel and Turkey. Of the nine crashes attributed to enemy
action we judge five to have been reliable and four to be at least possible. These
details are summarised in Table12.
Table 12: Crashes attributed to enemy action in drone crash dataset
Date Operator Type Shot down by Location Source
Jul 12, 2018 Saudi Arabia Wing Loong I Yemeni air defence Yemen Press report
Feb 12, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar Syrian Defence Force Syria Press report
Feb 10, 2018 Iran? Syria? Unknown Israeli helicopter Israel Press report
Oct 01, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Houthi militia Yemen Press report
Jun 20, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129 US F-15 Syria Press report
Jun 08, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129? US fighter jet Syria Press report
May 16, 2016 Iran? Syria? Shahed-123 Turkish F-16 Syria Press report
Jul 05 2015 UAE Air Force Seeker 200 Houthi militia Yemen Press report
Mar 17 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Syrian air defence? IS? Syria USAF report
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British armed forces now have more than a decade’s experience of using large
remotely-controlled aircraft such as the Reaper, Hermes 450 and Watchkeeper
for military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. From a military perspective,
the use of these systems is rapidly becoming normalised, and there is now a
real desire by the MoD to begin to use them within UK airspace both for training
purposes and for civil emergencies.
12
Also waiting in the wings are a number of
private corporations who see the commercial potential of operating large UAVs
in the UK for the transport of goods and even passengers once the military has
cleared the regulatory barriers.
However, as this short briefing has demonstrated, the technology is in many
ways still in its infancy and for a whole variety of reasons – design flaws,
communications difficulties, complexity, human error – large military remotely-
controlled aircraft regularly crash; around twice a month on average over the
past decade.
An important insight here comes from one of the Service Inquiry reports into
the crash of a British Watchkeeper drone in 2017 which argues that a key
theme running across all the crashes of that type is the “disproportionate level
of complexity” of the system. As an example, it reports that while the Flight
Reference Cards for the AgustaWestland AW159 Wildcat helicopter runs to
80 pages, for Watchkeeper they run to 265 pages. “It would be reasonable
to conclude,” the report’s author summarises, “that the complexity of flying
Watchkeeper is disproportionate and adds unnecessary risk to the conduct
of safe flight.”
13
It should be noted that Normal Accident Theory, originally
proposed in 1984 by Charles Perrow, suggests that for complex systems,
accidents are normal and unavoidable events because unrelated incidents
accumulate and align to create major malfunctions that can produce disastrous
results.
14
The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is the lead-buyer of General Atomics’ newest
version of the Predator drone, which the UK is choosing to call ‘The Protector’.
12 Mark Hookham, RAF killer drones to fly in the UK, The Times, 2 October 2016,
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f748bfb8-881d-11e6-8242-d338f8b15268
13 Service Inquiry report into the Loss of Watchkeeper (WK042) Unmanned Air Vehicle over Cardigan
Bay in West Wales on 3 February 2017, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/
system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792947/20190402-WK042_SI_Final_Report-_Redacted__RT-OS.
pdf, 1.6.14 (page 132)
14 Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies – Updated edition, Princeton
University Press, 1999, https://press.princeton.edu/titles/6596.html
Comment: Opening
UK airspace to large
military drones
The technology is
in many ways still
in its infancy and
for a whole variety
of reasons large
military remotely
controlled aircraft
regularly crash;
around twice a
month on average
over the past
decade.
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While it is being built to standards to allow it to be ‘certified’ for flying in UK
airspace, regulators have to be convinced that it can fly safely. In particular, as
there is no onboard pilot, the aircraft cannot fulfil what is considered the bedrock
of air safety: a pilot being able to ‘see and avoid’ other aircraft. General Atomics
is developing an electronic ‘Detect and Avoid’ system which it argues will be able
to fulfil this safety function but this technology is largely untested.
In the United States, unmanned systems like Predator, Reaper and Global Hawk
are allowed to fly in airspace specially segregated for military use and also
in national airspace if they obtain authorization in advance from the Federal
Aviation Authority (FAA).
15
These authorised flights are always accompanied
by a manned chase aircraft to ensure safety. In June 2018, for the first time,
General Atomics trialled its ‘detect and avoid’ systems on board a drone with
authorization of the FAA.
16
Here in the UK discussion between the MoD, General Atomics and UK airspace
regulators – the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) – did not go particularly well
as documents released to Drone Wars UK following Freedom of Information
requests show.
17
Reading between the lines (and redactions) there appears to
have been a desire by some to press ahead and cut through what was perhaps
regarded as bureaucratic red tape. A suggested solution (the specific details of
which have been redacted from the papers) was advanced which did not impress
the airspace regulators. A CAA official, reporting back to his colleagues, wrote
that he had expressed his “lack of confidence” with the solution and made clear
“the novel and ground breaking nature” of what had been proposed. As many
will remember from ‘Yes Minister’, this is a polite, but damning verdict from civil
servants. After around 12 months of meetings, it was agreed that the General
Atomics and the MoD would stop meeting with the CAA and instead deal with
the Military Aviation Authority (MAA) who would then in turn liaise with the CAA.
15 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS): DoD Purpose and Operational Use, US Department of Defence,
https://dod.defense.gov/UAS/
16 Jason Murdock, Ikhana: Why NASA has just flown a huge unmanned aircraft into public airspace,
Newsweek, 14 June 2018, https://www.newsweek.com/ikhana-nasa-has-just-flown-unmanned-aircraft-
public-airspace-976094
17 Revealed: internal discussions between MoD and regulators on flying Predator drones in UK, Drone
Wars UK, 12 February 2018 https://dronewars.net/2018/02/12/revealed-internal-discussions-between-
mod-and-regulators-on-flying-predator-drones-in-uk/
A Hermes 450 being operated by the British Army crashed at Bastion airfield in Afghanistan
on October 2 2011 following engine failure. Credit: UK Military Aviation Authority
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In January 2019, General Atomics announced that it had had signed a
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with UK defence giant BAE Systems “to
collaborate on integration of RPA [Remotely Piloted Aircraft] into UK national
airspace.”
18
BAE Systems said that it would support General Atomics through its
experience of testing unmanned systems and also by “shaping the regulatory
environment through participation, dialogue and strong relationships with UK
and European regulatory authorities.” General Atomics, it seems, has turned to
UK military big gun, BAE Systems, to lobby on their behalf.
While there continues to be debate and discussion about the safety implication
of the rising use of small unmanned drones, discussion about opening UK
airspace to larger drones is mostly taking place behind closed doors. To
begin a wider public discussion on the use of these we make the following
recommendations:
5.1 Recommendations
• Internal documents released in response to a Drone Wars UK FoI request
show that the MoD recognise that there is both public and ‘air traffic
management community’ disquiet about the use of large UAVs in UK
airspace and suggests a ‘communications strategy’ is needed:
“ Public perception will be central to normalising RPAS [Remotely Piloted Air
Systems] use in UK airspace, especially for military purposes. An internal
and external communication strategy will therefore be essential to support
Protector...”
“ The perception of RPAS – both by the public and the ATM [Air Traffic
Management] community will be central to integration and require a
coherent cross-government communications strategy”.
19
While the MoD is entitled to make its case for flying large UAVs within UK
airspace, as a public body it needs to take care that its information does not cross
the line into PR. Any communications strategy aimed at persuading the public
on Protector needs to be balanced as well as recognising and reflecting the risks
associated with the use of these systems in order to givethe public a full picture.
• A key reason given by the MoD to begin using Protector within the UK is
for training purposes. However, the MoD has been operating large armed
drones for more than a decade without undertaking training within the UK.
RAF pilots have been happily undertaking training flights within segregated
airspace in the US and on simulator systems. Indeed, General Atomics
recently contracted CAE to provide a new, comprehensive, synthetic training
systems for Protector.
20
As well as the danger of accidents, training in the UK
would bring other concerns. In 2012 the New York Times revealed thatas
part of their training, drone pilots track and trail vehicles driving along local
highways.
21
It is disconcerting, to say the least, that driving along the A15
orthe A46 near Lincoln could entail being tracked by a military drone.
18 Press Release: GA-ASI Hosts Industry Showcase Highlighting UK Partners, 24 January 2019,
http://www.ga.com/ga-asi-hosts-industry-showcase-highlighting-uk-partners
19 Memo dated 20 May 2016 entitled: ‘Protector UK Airspace Integration, PSO Asst Chief of Air Staff’, Available
at page 72 of bundle of documents released by CAA regarding communication with MoD on Predator B ER
(‘Protector’) https://dronewarsuk.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/20171222attachment11.pdf
20 Press Release: ‘CAE awarded contract by GA-ASI to develop synthetic training system for United
Kingdom’s Protector remotely piloted aircraft’, CAE, 24 Jan 2019, https://www.cae.com/news-events/
press-releases/cae-awarded-contract-by-ga-asi-to-develop-synthetic-training-system-for-united-
kingdoms-protector-remotely-piloted-aircraft/
21 Mark Mazzetti, The Drone Zone, The New York Times Magazine, 6 July 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/
2012/07/08/magazine/the-drone-zone.html?pagewanted=1&ref=magazine
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A full and open review should be undertaken of military remotely piloted
training to ascertain whether the advantages to training with these systems
within the UK justifies the increased risk to the public, particularly if such
training can be undertaken by different means.
• While the majority of large UAV crashes occur during mid-flight, the data
shows that a significant amount of accidents happen during the take-off
and landing phase. While military bases in war zones tend to be away from
populated areas, the home base of Protector will be RAF Waddington in
Lincolnshire.
22
Waddington has a sizeable local community and the base is
surrounded by houses, shops, businesses and a school. While it is impossible
to negate all risk, the regular operation of large military unmanned systems
from a base in a relatively populated location appears to increase the risk
to that population. It would be important that the local population in and
around RAF Waddington is fully informed of the increased risk due to the
basing of Protector there, and measures are taken to mitigate that increased
risk.
• Politicians and senior military officials have acknowledged that once granted
permission to fly in UK airspace, Protector would be available to civil
authorities to undertake an “array of homeland defence tasks”.
23
While the
MoD is keen to highlight that this could include “search and rescue” and
“flood prevention”, it is less keen to talk about its possible use by the security
services. Debate about scope of, and limitations on, the use of military UAVs
to monitor suspect individuals or groups within the UK is beyond the scope
of this publication but undoubtedly deserves proper thought and debate in
advance of any domestic deployment of Protector. An inquiry by the Human
Rights Select Committee would seem to be an appropriate forum to begin
discussion of the aspect.
• The Military Aviation Authority (MAA) is regularly described as an
“independent authority” or an “independent organisation” yet it is an agency
wholly within the Ministry of Defence, led by serving military officers. To avoid
any conflict of interest – or even the appearance of any conflict of interest – it
would be wrong to grant to the MAA the responsibility for authorising the
use of large military drones in UK airspace. To do so would be putting the
MAA itself, as well as its staff, in a compromising position. To ensure rigour in
the regulatory process the independent Civil Aviation Authority must be the
agency responsible for granting permission for Protector or any other large
unmanned aerial vehicles to fly in UK airspace.
22 Waddington to operate Protector, with best of British air power on show at Air Tattoo, MoD, 13 July
2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/waddington-to-operate-protector-with-best-of-british-
air-power-on-show-at-air-tattoo
23 See Mark Hookham, RAF killer drones to fly in UK, The Times, 2 October 2016,
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f748bfb8-881d-11e6-8242-d338f8b15268
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Drone Crash Dataset 2008–2019
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
2018
1 Nov 17, 2018 French Air
Force
MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Niamey, Niger Press report
2 Oct 28, 2018 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Paktika,
Afghanistan
Press report
3 Sep 13, 2018 US Navy MQ-4 Triton Landing California, USA Press report
4 Sep 13,2018 Greek Army Spewer Take-off phase Komotini,
Greece
Press report
5 Aug 14, 2018 US CBP MQ-9 Reaper Landing Texas, USA Press report
6 Jul 12, 2018 Saudi Arabia Wing Loong I Mid-flight
(shot down?)
Rabuah, Yemen Press report
7 Jun 30, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Mid-flight Hatay, Turkey Press report
8 Jun 26, 2018 US Air Force RQ-4 Global
Hawk
Mid-flight Off coast of
Spain
Press report
9
Jun 13, 2018 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Aberporth,
Wales
Press report
10 9 May 2018 Pakistan Falco Take-off phase Sargodha,
Pakistan
Press report
11 Apr 14, 2018 Indian Navy Heron-1 Mid-flight Gujarat, India Press report
12 Mar 2018 Israeli Air
Force
Unknown Mid-flight Off Israeli coast Press report
13 Mar 31, 2018 Israeli Air
Force
Unknown Mid-flight Beit Yahoun,
Lebanon
Press report
14 Mar 22, 2018 Indian Navy Heron-1 Take-off phase Gujarat, India Press report
15 Feb 12, 2018 Turkey Bayraktar Mid-flight
(shot down?)
Efrin, Syria Press report
16 Feb 10, 2018 Iran? Syria? Unknown Shot down Israel Press report
2017
17 Dec 2017 Indian Air
Force
Heron-1 Mid-flight Tibet Press report
18 Nov 21.2017 Indian Navy Searcher II Take-off phase Kichi, India Press report
19 Oct 1, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(shot down?)
Yemen Press report
20 Sep 4, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(lost-link)
Classified USAF Investigation
21 Aug 21, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(electronics failure)
South-eastern
Turkey
USAF Investigation
Press report
22 Aug 17, 2017 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (electrical
fail)
Classified
(Turkey?)
USAF Investigation
Press report
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
23 Jun 21, 2017 US Air Force RQ-4B Global
Hawk
Mid-flight
(electronics failure)
California USAF Investigation
24 Jun 20, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129 Shot down Syria Press report
25 Jun 8, 2017 Iran? Syria? Shahed-129? Shot down Syria Press report
26 May 6, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Mid-flight (lostlink) Classified USAF Investigation
27 May 2, 2017 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight New Mexico,
USA
Press report
28 Mar 24 2017 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Irish Sea Service Inquiry
Press report
29 Mar 3, 2017 US Air Force Unknown ? Bagram,
Afghanistan
Press report
30 Feb 3, 2017 UK Army Watchkeeper Mid-flight Irish Sea Service Inquiry
Press report
2016
31 Nov 29, 2016 French Army Spewer SDTI Mid-flight Meusien, France Press report
32 Oct 9, 2016 Turkey Anka Mid-flight Turkey Press report
33 Sep 26, 2016 Pakistan Falco Mid-flight Mianwali,
Pakistan
Press report
34 Aug 24, 2016 Turkey Bayraktar TB2 Mid-flight Sanliurfa, Turkey Press report
35 July 5, 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Syria USAF Investigation
Press report
36 Jun 18, 2016 Pakistan Wing Loong I Mid-flight Punjab, Pakistan Press report
37 Jun 7, 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase (crew
error)
Nevada, USA USAF Investigation
38 May 31, 2016 Piaggio Aero Hammerhead Mid-flight Off Sicily Press report
39 May 16, 2016 Iran? Syria? Shahed-123 Mid-flight
(shotdown)
Syria Press report
40 Mar 18, 2016 Indian Navy Heron Mid-flight Kerala, India Press report
41 Mar 8, 2016 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lostlink) Classified USAF Investigation
42 Feb 21 2016 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Kandahar,
Afghanistan
Press report
43 Feb 2 2016 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Landing (Lost link) Adana, Turkey USAF Investigation
Press report
44 Jan 30 2016 Pakistan Unknown Mid-flight Sargodha,
Pakistan
Press report
45 Jan 07 2016 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(piloterror)
Al-Qaim, Iraq USAF Investigation
Press report
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
2015
46 Dec 29 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing
(mechanicalfailure)
Djibouti WaPo FoI
47 Nov 24 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (crewerror) Bagram.
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
Press report
48 Nov 20 2015 Indian Army Nishant Mid-flight Rajasthan, India Press report
49 Nov 18, 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase
(engine failure)
Kandahar,
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
50 Nov 8 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical trouble)
Near Ali Al Salem
air base, Kuwait
USAF Investigation
Press report
51 Nov 4, 2015 US Army MQ-1 Gray Eagle Mid-flight Kabul,
Afghanistan
Press report
52 Nov 4 2015 Indian Army Nishant Mid-flight Rajasthan, India Press report
53 Nov 2 2015 UK Army Watchkeeper Landing
(softwarefailure)
Salisbury, UK Inquiry report
Press report
54 Oct 19 2015 Unknown Unknown Mid-flight Marib, Yemen Press report
55 Oct 19 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(Mechanical failure)
Southern Turkey Press report
56 Oct 17, 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (Weather) Kut, Iraq USAF Investigation
Press report
57 Sep 24 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (Weather) Derna, Libya USAF Investigation
Press report
58 Sep 18 2015 Pakistan Falco Mid-flight Sargodha,
Pakistan
Press report
59 Aug 31 2015 US Army MQ1 Gray Eagle Landing
(electricalfailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
60 Aug 31 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI
61 Aug 11 2015 Iranian Air
Force
Shahed-129 Mid-flight Iran/Pakistan
border
Press report
62 Jul 16 2015 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight (lost link) Southern Iraq Press report
63 Jul 11 2015 Israeli Air
Force
Hermes 450 Mid-flight Lebanon Press report
64 Jul 5 2015 UAE Air Force Seeker 200 Mid-flight (shot
down?)
Yemen Press report
65 Jun 28 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight Kandahar,
Afghanistan
WaPo FoI
66 Jun 22 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Southeast Iraq USAF press release
67 Jun 21 2015 Israeli Air
Force
Unknown Mid-flight Lebanon Press report
68 Jun 7 2015 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
69 May 27 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (electrical
failure)
Off coast
Djibouti
WaPo FoI
70 May 27 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (engine
failure)
Southern Iraq USAF Investigation
Press report
71 May 18 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Kandahar,
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
72 May 5 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Classified USAF Investigation
73 May 1 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Nevada, US USAF press release
74 Apr 28, 2015 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase (lost
link)
Classified USAF Investigation
75 Apr 5 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Off coast
Djibouti
WaPo FoI
76 Mar 17 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Shot down Latakia, Syria USAF report
77 Mar 1 2015 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Kandahar,
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
78 Mar 2015 Iranian Air
Force
Shahed-129? Mid-flight Khurmatoo, Iraq Press report
79 Feb 4 2015 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Off coast Africa USAF Investigation
80 Jan 26 2015 Nigeria CASC CH-3 Mid-flight Borno, Nigeria Press report
81 Jan 23 2015 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Take-off phase New Mexico, US Press report
82 Jan 09 2015 Indian Air
Force
Heron-1 Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Barmer, India Press report
2014
83 Dec 12 2014 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Classified USAF Investigation
84 Dec 11 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Landing (pilot error) Nevada, US USAF Investigation
85 Dec 03 2014 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing Georgia, US WaPo FoI
86 Nov 26 2014 Indian Air
Force
Heron-1 Mid-flight Kutch, India Press report
87 Oct 20 2014 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (pilot error) Niamey, Niger Press report
88 Oct 20 2014 UN Falco Take-off phase DR Congo Press report
89 Oct 16, 2014 UK Army Watchkeeper Landing
(softwarefailure)
Aberporth, UK MAA inquiry report
90 Sep 23 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Yemen Press report
91 Sep 17 2014 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Afghanistan Press report
92 Sep 10 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
93 Aug 18 2014 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Landing
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
94 Aug 03 2014 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight Afghanistan WaPo FoI
95 Jul 14 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
96 Jun 27 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Nevada, US USAF Investigation
97 Jun 25 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Jalalabad,
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
98 Jun 23 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
99 Jun 16, 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI
100 Apr 26 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
101 Apr 04 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) US, Nevada USAF Investigation
102 Feb 25 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper ? Classified WaPo FoI
103 Feb 16 2014 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Taxiing Afghanistan WaPo FoI
104 Feb 2014 Iran Shahed-123 Mid-flight Iran Press report
105 Jan 28 2014 US DHS MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
California, US Press Report
106 Jan17 2014 Ecuador Navy Searcher II Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Ecuador Press Report
107 Jan 17 2014 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Off Libya coast USAF Investigation
108 Jan 15 2014 UN Falco Landing DR Congo Press Report
109 Jan 15 2014 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Mid-flight Yemen Press Report
2013
110 Dec 13 2013 Indian Army Heron-1 Landing Tamil Nadu,
India
Press Report
111 Dec 06 2013 Turkey Air
Force
Anka Mid-flight Turkey Press Report
112 Nov 14 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Nevada, USA Press Report
113 Nov 13 2013 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI
114 Nov 12 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(electronics failure)
Lake Ontario,
USA
USAF Investigation
115 Oct 30 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight New Mexico, US Press report
116 Oct 24 2013 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing Maryland, US WaPo FoI
117 Oct 16 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
118 Oct 08 2013 Israeli Air
Force
Hermes 450 Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Israel Press report
119 Oct 4, 2013 UK Army Hermes 450 Landing Afghanistan FoI
120 Sep 23 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
121 Sept 17 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Off coast of Sicily WaPo FoI
122 Sep 5, 2013 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Afghanistan FoI
123 Aug 14 2013 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan WaPo FoI
124 July 24 2013 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing (engine
failure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
125 July 23 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico,
USA
Press Report
126 July 14 2013 Israeli Air
Force
Hermes 450 Mid-flight Israel/Egypt
border
Press Report
127
Jun 27 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing
(mechanicalfailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
128 June 5 2013 US Marines K-Max Mid-flight Afghanistan Press Report
129 May 27 2013 US S-100 Camcopter Mid-flight Somalia Press Report
130 May 13 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (electrical
failure)
Nevada, USA USAF Investigation
131 May 11 2013 Israeli Air
Force
Heron-1 Mid-flight (engine
failure)
Israel Press Report
132 May 11 2013 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
133 Apr 9, 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Mali Press Report
134 Apr 5 2013 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (weather) Gulf of Aden WaPo FoI
135 Mar 29 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(lightning strike)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
136 Mar 2 2013 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electronics failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
137 2013 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator ? Classified WaPo FoI
2012
138 Dec 21 2012 Pakistan Unknown Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report
139 Dec 13 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing
(mechanical failure)
Off Libyan coast WaPo FoI
140 Dec 5 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(crew error)
Nevada, US USAF Investigation
141 Nov 14 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
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No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
142 Oct 26 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
143 Oct 11 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
144 Sept 27 2012 Turkey Air
Force
Anka Mid-flight (lost link) Turkey Press report
145 Sept 25 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
146 Sept 18 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Iraq USAF Investigation
147 Aug 22 2012 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(electrical failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
148 July 25 2012 US Air Force
/ GA
MQ 1C Gray Eagle
/ MQ-1 Predator
Taxiing Arizona, US Press Report
149 July 24 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase
(pilot error)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
150 July 22, 2012 UK Army Hermes 450 ? destroyed Afghanistan FoI
151 July 20 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI
152 July 11 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI
153 July 7 2012 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Landing
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
154 Jun 11 2012 US Navy RQ-4A BAMS Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Maryland, USA Navy press release
155 May 19 2012 Pakistan
army
Falco Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report
156 May 10 2012 Schiebel Schiebel S-100 Mid-flight South Korea Press Report
157 Apr 17, 2012 US Army A160T
Hummingbird
Mid-flight
(Mechanical failure)
California, US Press report
158 April 14 2012 US Air Force MQ1-B Predator Mid-flight (engine
failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
159 April 6 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Mid-flight
(electronics failure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
160 April 4 2012 US Air Force MQ-9A Reaper Take-off phase
(piloterror)
Seychelles USAF Investigation
161 Mar 31 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Classified WaPo FoI
162 Mar 31 2012 UK Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing (pilot error) Afghanistan FoI
163 Mar 30 2012 US Navy MQ-8B Fire Scout Landing (lost link) off West Africa WaPo FoI
164 Mar 21 2012 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan WaPo FoI
165 Feb 25 2012 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Pakistan Press Report
166 Feb 21 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Djibouti USAF Investigation
44
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Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
167 Feb 16 2012 Indian Navy Searcher II Mid-flight India Press Report
168 Feb 14 2012 US Air Force MQ1-B Predator Landing
(electricalfailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
169 Jan 30 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing
(mechanicalfailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
170 Jan 29 2012 Israeli Air
Force
Heron TP Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Israel Press Report
171 2012 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Classified WaPo FoI
172 2012 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Classified WaPo FoI
2011
173 Dec 27 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan Press Report
174 Dec 13 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase
(electrical fail)
Seychelles USAF Investigation
175 Dec 4 2011 US Air Force/
CIA
MQ-170 Sentinel Mid-flight Iran Press Report
176 Nov 11, 2011 Germany Heron-1 Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan Press report
177 Oct 7 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico WaPo FoI
178 Oct 2 2011 UK Army Hermes 450 Landing
(engine failure)
Afghanistan MAA Investigation
179 Sep 22 2011 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight
(engine failure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
180 Sep 11 2011 US Air Force Unknown ? Somalia Press Report
181 Aug 24 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico, US WaPo FoI
182 Aug 24 2011 China Wing Loong I Mid-flight China Press Report
183 Aug 21 2011 US Air Force RQ-4 Global
Hawk
Mid-flight
(electrical failure)
Afghanistan Press Report
184 Aug 20 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
185 Jul 19 2011 Pakistan
Navy
GIDS Uqab Mid-flight
(birdstrike)
Pakistan Press report
186 July 10 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan USAF Investigation
187 Jun 28 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (weather) Afghanistan ISAF report
188 June 5 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(lightningstrike)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
189 May 20 2011 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Take-off phase Nevada, US WaPo FoI
190 May 17 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing
(electronicsfailure)
Djibouti USAF Investigation
191 May 7 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Djibouti Press Report
Drone Wars UK
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Accidents Will Happen
|
45
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
192 May 5 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
193 May 1 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan UASF Investigation
194 Apr 1 2011 US Aero
Vironment
Global Observer 1 Mid-flight California Press report
195 Mar 16 2011 US Army MQ-1C Gray
Eagle
Mid-flight California, US WaPo FoI
196 Mar 15 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing
(mechanicalfailure)
Djibouti WaPo FoI
197 Mar 4 2011 Turkey Air
Force
Heron -1 Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Turkey Press Report
198 Feb 8 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight Yemen Press Report
199 Feb 7 2011 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight
(piloterror)
Iraq WaPo FoI
200 Jan 14 2011 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Djibouti USAF Investigation
201 Jan 3 2011 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Kandahar,
Afghanistan
USAF Investigation
2010
202 Dec 2010 Germany Heron-1 Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan Press report
203 Dec 9 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) Kandahar USAF Investigation
204 Nov 02 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase
(lostlink)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
205 Oct 28 2010 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing New Mexico, US Press Report
206 Oct 22 2010 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Landing New Mexico, US Press Report
207 Oct 17 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing Afghanistan WaPo FoI
208 Sep 19 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Kabul USAF Investigation
209 Sep 4, 2010 US Army A160T
Hummingbird
Landing
(electronicsfailure
Belize Press report
210 Aug 31 2010 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(piloterror)
US California WaPo FoI
211 Aug 18 2010 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight (lost link)
– not recovered
Iraq WaPo FoI
212 Aug 16 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(piloterror)
Iraq USAF Investigation
213 Jul 28 2010 US Army A160T
Hummingbird
Mid-fight (piloterror) California, US Press Report
214 Jul 28 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase
(lostlink)
New Mexico, US USAF Investigation
46
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Accidents Will Happen
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
215 Jul 16 2010 Australian
Air Force
Heron-1 Landing
(softwarefailure)
Canada Press Report
216 June 4 2010 Australian
Air Force
Heron-1 Landing Afghanistan Press Report
217 June 3, 2010 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Destroyed Afghanistan FoI
218 May 21, 2010 UK Army Hermes 450 ? Destroyed Afghanistan FoI
219 May 14 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing (weather) Iraq WaPo FoI
220 May 2, 2010 UK Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Afghanistan FoI
221 Apr 20 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Landing (pilot error) US, California USAF Investigation
222 Mar 17, 2010 Germany Heron-1 Taxing Mazar-i-Sharif,
Afghanistan
Press report
223 Mar 14 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight Afghanistan Press report
224 Feb 13 2010 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase Afghanistan WaPo FoI
225 Feb 09 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator ? Afghanistan Press Report
226 Jan 24 2010 US Air Force Unknown Mid-flight Afghan/Pakistan Press Report
227 Jan 15 2010 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(piloterror)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI press
228 Jan 13 2010 Italian Air
Force
MQ-1B
PredatorA
Mid-flight (lost link) Off Italian coast Press Report
2009
229 Dec 13 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Take-off phase
(engine fai)
Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
WaPo FoI
230 Nov 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
231 Nov 14 2009 US Army MQ-1B Warrior Mid-flight Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
WaPo FoI
232 Oct 3 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(piloterror)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
233 Sep 14 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Iraq Wikileaks War Log
WaPo FoI
234 Sep 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan Press Report
235 Sep 11 2009 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator Take-off phase New Mexico, US WaPo FoI
236 Sep 04 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
237 Aug 22 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Iraq WaPo FoI
238 Aug 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Iraq USAF Investigation
239 Aug 12 2009 US Army I-GNAT Mid-flight Iraq Wikileaks War Logs
Drone Wars UK
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Accidents Will Happen
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47
No. Date Operator Drone type Phase/details Location Details
240 July 04 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Landing Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
WaPo FoI
241 Jun 12 2009 US Air Force MQ-1 Predator ? Nevada, US WaPo FoI
242 Jun 02 2009 UK Army Hermes 450 Mid-flight (engine
failure)
Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
FoI
243 May 28 2009 US Air Force RQ-4 Global
Hawk
Mid-flight California, US WaPo FoI
244 May 13 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight (lost link) Afghanistan USAF Investigation
245 May 08 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(mechanical failure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
246 Apr 28 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Take-off phase
(mechanical)
Nevada. US USAF Investigation
247 Apr 21 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Landing (lost link) Iraq WaPo FoI
248 Apr 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Afghanistan USAF Investigation
249 Apr 10 2009 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Mid-flight (lost link) Georgia, US WaPo FoI
250 Mar 20 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
California, US USAF Investigation
251 Mar 14 2009 Canada SPERWER Mid-flight Afghanistan Wikileaks War Logs
252 Feb 22 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(electricalfailure)
Iraq Wikileaks War Logs
WaPo FoI
253 Feb 08 2009 US Air Force MQ-1B Predator Mid-flight
(enginefailure)
Afghanistan WaPo FoI
254 2009 US Air Force MQ-9 Reaper ? Classified WaPo FoI