The European Semester for economic policy coordination: A reflection paper
PE 624.440 33
5. THE MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCES FRAMEWORK
In the first decade of its existence, the EMU experienced
major macroeconomic imbalances, excessive private and
public indebtedness, asset bubbles and divergences in
competitiveness (reflected in diverging real effective
exchange rates) that exacerbated the negative effects of
the global financial crisis.
From the euro’s launch up to the euro area sovereign debt
crisis, there were big capital flows from core countries (like
Germany, France, and the Netherland) to peripheral
countries (like Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Greece). A
major share of these capital inflows was spent on
consumption or invested in non-tradable sectors –
especially housing and infrastructure investment. This
meant that insufficient productive assets were being
created to pay off the borrowing and thus rebalance the
balance of payments. Foreign-financed domestic
spending tended to drive up wages and costs, in a way
that harmed the competitiveness of the receivers’ export
earnings and encouraged further worsening of their
current account balances
67
.
In 2011, the EU agreed to set up the Macroeconomic
Imbalance Procedure (MIP), a new surveillance and
enforcement procedure intended to facilitate the early
identification and correction of such imbalances in
Member States, paying specific attention to those
imbalances having potential spillover effects on other
Member States. This surveillance system comprises both a
preventive and a corrective arm (the Excessive Imbalance
Procedure (EIP)), possibly leading to sanctions (see Box 8).
The objective was to have a formal framework aimed at
better preventing excessive macroeconomic imbalances
from emerging, and also to support the Member States
affected in taking corrective actions before imbalances
become entrenched. Such a broadening of the EU’s
surveillance of economic policies was intended to take
place in parallel with the deepening of fiscal surveillance.
Today, the MIP framework has improved understanding of
the potential risks that can arise from macroeconomic
imbalances, in particular inside the euro area. This has
been the result of the detailed analyses of economic
developments, both in the annual Alert Mechanism
Reports and - in particular - in the in-depth reviews
prepared by the Commission services as part of their
annual Country Reports
.
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See a paper by a group of economists on ‘Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – agreeing a crisis narrative’ (CEPR, November
2015).
Box 8: The MIP in a nutshell
At the beginning of the annual cycle of the
European Semester, the Commission
publishes a so-called Alert Mechanism
Report (AMR), which is based on a
scoreboard of indicators and thresholds
used to facilitate the identification and
monitoring of potential external or internal
imbalances. Member States with indicators
beyond these thresholds are submitted to
an ‘in-depth review’, i.e. a further economic
analysis.
Preventive recommendations
If, on the basis of the outcomes of the ‘in-
depth-review’, the Commission finds that
‘macroeconomic imbalances’ exist, it
informs the EP, the Council and the
Eurogroup. The Council, on a
recommendation from the Commission,
may then address a recommendation to
the Member State concerned (in
accordance with the procedure set out in
Art. 121(2) TFEU). These preventive MIP-
recommendations form part of the annual
Country Specific Recommendations
(CSRs).
Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP)
If, on the basis of the in-depth review, the
Commission identifies ‘excessive
imbalances’ that warrant opening a EIP, it
informs the EP, the Council, the Eurogroup,
the relevant European Supervisory
Authorities and the ESRB. The Council, on a
recomme
ndation from the COM, may
establish the existence of excessive
imbalance and recommend corrective
action (in accordance with Article 121(4)
TFEU). The Council’s recommendation sets
out the nature and implications of the
imbalances, and specifies the policy
recommendations to be followed, as well
as a deadline within which the Member
State concerned must submit a corrective
action plan. The EIP comprises the delivery
of a corrective action plan, with a set of
policy measures to be carried out within a
predetermined timeframe, and possible
fines (for euro area countries).