City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

City of Goleta

Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

An Annex to the Santa Barbara County

Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

February 2023

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan i

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Table of Content

1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1

2.0 Plan Purpose and Authority ........................................................................................................................ 2

3.0 Planning Process ........................................................................................................................................... 6

3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 6

3.2 Mitigation Advisory Committee (MAC) ................................................................................................ 7

3.3 Local Planning Team (LPT) ...................................................................................................................... 8

3.4 Public Outreach and Engagement ........................................................................................................ 9

4.0 Capability Assessment ............................................................................................................................... 10

4.1 Development Trends and Demographics .......................................................................................... 10

4.2 Key Departments ................................................................................................................................... 10

4.2.1 Goleta City Council ...................................................................................................................... 11

4.2.2 Goleta City Manager’s Office (Office of Emergency Services) .......................................... 11

4.2.3 City of Goleta Finance Department .......................................................................................... 12

4.2.4 City of Goleta Planning and Environmental Review Department (includes

Building Inspection, Code Enforcement andGIS) ...................................................................................... 12

4.2.5 Public Works/Engineering/Parks and Open Space Maintenance ...................................... 12

4.2.6 City of Goleta Public Safety –Police Services ........................................................................ 13

4.2.7 City of Goleta Public Safety – Fire Services ........................................................................... 13

4.3 Administrative and Technical Capacity ............................................................................................. 13

4.4 Legal and Regulatory Capabilities .................................................................................................... 14

4.5 Financial Resources ................................................................................................................................ 15

4.6 Education and Outreach Capabilities ................................................................................................ 16

4.7 Relevant Plans, Policies, and Ordinances .......................................................................................... 16

4.7.1 City of Goleta Economic Development Strategic Plan ........................................................... 16

4.7.2 City of Goleta Emergency Operations Plan and Threat Analysis ....................................... 17

4.7.3 City of Goleta Municipal Codes for Flood Risk ....................................................................... 18

4.7.4 Repetitive Loss Properties ............................................................................................................ 19

4.7.5 City of Goleta Stormwater Management Plan ....................................................................... 19

4.7.6 City of Goleta Strategic Plan and Capital Improvement Plan ............................................ 21

4.7.7 City of Goleta General Plan/Coastal Land Use Plan ............................................................ 21

4.8 Opportunities for Mitigation Capability Improvements ................................................................. 22

5.0 Hazard Assessment .................................................................................................................................... 23

5.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 23

5.2 Hazard Screening/Prioritization ......................................................................................................... 23

5.3 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................................... 25

5.3.1 Description of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 25

5.3.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta ........................................................... 25

5.3.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta .................................................................................. 26

5.3.4 Probability of Occurrence ........................................................................................................... 26

5.3.5 Climate Change Considerations ................................................................................................. 27

5.4 Earthquake & Liquefaction .................................................................................................................. 27

5.4.1 Description of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 27

5.4.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta ........................................................... 28

5.4.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta .................................................................................. 29

5.4.4 Probability of Occurrence ........................................................................................................... 29

5.4.5 Climate Change Considerations ................................................................................................. 29

5.5 Flood ........................................................................................................................................................ 31

5.5.1 Description of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 31

5.5.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta ........................................................... 31

5.5.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta .................................................................................. 32

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5.5.4 Probability of Occurrence ........................................................................................................... 32

5.5.5 Climate Change Consideration .................................................................................................. 32

5.6 Coastal Hazards .................................................................................................................................... 33

5.6.1 Description of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 33

5.6.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta ........................................................... 33

5.6.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta .................................................................................. 33

5.6.4 Probability of Occurrence ........................................................................................................... 34

5.6.5 Climate Change Considerations ................................................................................................. 34

5.7 Tsunami .................................................................................................................................................... 34

5.7.1 Description of Hazard .................................................................................................................. 34

5.7.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta ........................................................... 34

5.7.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta .................................................................................. 35

5.7.4 Probability of Occurrence ........................................................................................................... 35

5.7.5 Climate Change Considerations ................................................................................................. 35

6.0 Vulnerability Assessment ........................................................................................................................... 35

6.1 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................................... 39

6.2 Earthquake & Liquefaction .................................................................................................................. 42

6.3 Flood ........................................................................................................................................................ 48

6.4 Coastal Hazards .................................................................................................................................... 51

6.5 Tsunami .................................................................................................................................................... 52

7.0 Mitigation Strategy ................................................................................................................................... 52

7.1 Mitigation Priorities ............................................................................................................................... 52

7.1.1 Goals and Objectives .................................................................................................................. 52

7.2 Mitigation Progress ............................................................................................................................... 54

7.3 Mitigation Approach ............................................................................................................................. 55

7.4 Implementation Plan .............................................................................................................................. 58

7.4.1 Climate Change Induced Mitigation Actions ............................................................................ 62

8.0 Plan Maintenance ....................................................................................................................................... 63

8.1 Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating the plan .............................................................................. 63

8.2 Implementation through Existing Plans and Programs .................................................................... 64

8.3 Ongoing Public Outreach and Engagement ..................................................................................... 65

8.4 Point of Contact ...................................................................................................................................... 65

9.0 References ................................................................................................................................................... 65

List of Figures

Figure 5-1. Santa Barbara County Probability of Shaking 2% in 50 Years .......................................... 30

Figure 6-1. City of Goleta Critical Facilities within Wildfire Threat Zones ............................................. 41

Figure 6-2. City of Goleta Critical Facilities and Earthquake Groundshaking Potential (Red

Mountain Fault 7.4 Magnitude ShakeMap) .............................................................................. 46

Figure 6-3. City of Goleta Critical Facilities and Liquefaction Potential ................................................. 47

Figure 6-4. City of Goleta Critical Facilities in FEMA Flood Hazard Zones ............................................ 50

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Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

List of Tables

Table 3-1. Mitigation Advisory Committee (MAC) Meetings Summary ..................................................... 7

Table 3-2. City of Goleta Local Planning Team 2022 ................................................................................. 8

Table 3-3. Local Planning Team Activity Summary ....................................................................................... 9

Table 4-1. City of Goleta Administrative and Technical Capacity .......................................................... 13

Table 4-2. City of Goleta Legal and Regulatory Capability ................................................................... 14

Table 4-3. City of Goleta Fiscal Capability ................................................................................................. 15

Table 5-1. City of Goleta Local Priority Hazards ....................................................................................... 24

Table 5-2. Richter Scale .................................................................................................................................... 27

Table 6-1. Critical Facilities in the City of Goleta ....................................................................................... 36

Table 6-2. Summary of Potential Impacts on Critical Facilities ................................................................. 38

Table 6-3. City of Goleta at Risk to Wildfire Threat ................................................................................. 39

Table 6-4. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Wildfire ....................................................... 40

Table 6-5. City of Goleta at Risk to Liquefaction Hazard by Property Type ....................................... 42

Table 6-6. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Liquefaction ................................................. 43

Table 6-7. City of Goleta FEMA Floodplain Exposure and Loss .............................................................. 48

Table 6-8. City of Goleta Critical Facilities at Risk to Flood Hazard ...................................................... 49

Table 6-9. City of Goleta at Risk to Sea Level Rise Coastal Hazards by Property Type .................. 51

Table 6-10. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Coastal Hazards ........................................ 51

Table 7-1. Status of City of Goleta Previous Mitigation Actions .............................................................. 54

Table 7-2. 2022 City of Goleta Mitigation Actions and Prioritization ................................................... 57

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1.0. Introduction

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 1

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

1.0 INTRODUCTION

Natural and human-caused disasters can lead to death, injury, property damage, and interruption

of business and government services. When they occur, the time, money, and effort to respond to

and recover from these disasters divert public resources and attention from other important

programs and problems.

However, the impact of foreseeable yet often unpredictable natural and human-caused events can

be reduced through mitigation planning. History has demonstrated that it is less expensive to

mitigate against disaster damage than to repeatedly repair damage in the aftermath. A mitigation

plan states the aspirations and specific courses of action jurisdictions intend to follow to reduce

vulnerability and exposure to future hazard events.

The City of Goleta (City) recognizes the consequences of disasters and the need to reduce the

impacts of all hazards, natural and human-caused. This annex was prepared in 2022 as part of

the update to the County of Santa Barbara (County) Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

(MJHMP). This annex serves as the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan (LHMP) for the City. The LHMP was

last comprehensively updated in 2017 as an annex to the 2017 MJHMP. Since 2017, the City has:

• Incorporated the LHMP goals, objectives, and mitigation actions into its local plans and

processes, including the General Plan Safety Element by reference and specific hazard planning

efforts (e.g., Stormwater Management Plan).

• Used the LHMP’s assessment of capabilities, hazards, and vulnerabilities to inform planning,

capital improvements, programs, decision-makers, and the public.

• Implemented mitigation actions through the City’s general plan, capital improvement program,

maintenance programs, grant programming, community outreach, and budget process.

• Reviewed and evaluated mitigation actions before and after disasters, including the Thomas

Fire and Holiday Fire.

This 2022 update to the LHMP builds on and refines the MJHMP’s assessment of hazards and

vulnerabilities countywide to develop a mitigation plan for the City. The City participated in the

2022 MJHMP Mitigation Advisory Committee (MAC) and Local Planning Team (LPT), reviewed all

portions of the MJHMP pertaining to the City, and incorporated relevant components into this annex.

It contains updated capability assessment information, a current vulnerability assessment, and an

updated/revised mitigation strategy. The methodology and process for developing this annex build

on approaches employed in the 2022 MJHMP and are explained throughout the following sections.

The 2022 MJHMP update was prepared with input and coordination from each of the county’s

eight incorporated cities, six special districts, the County, citizen participation, responsible officials,

and support from the State of California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and

the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The process to update the MJHMP and this

LHMP included over a year of coordination with representatives from all participating agencies

within the County and County representatives who comprised the MAC (described further in Section

3.0 below). The City is a participating agency in the County’s MJHMP update.

The City’s LHMP is used by local emergency management teams, decision-makers, and agency staff

to implement needed mitigation to address known hazards. The MJHMP and this annex can also be

2.0. Plan Purpose and Authority

2 February 2023

used as a tool for all stakeholders to increase community awareness of local hazards and risks and

provide information about options and resources available to reduce those risks. Informing and

educating the public about potential hazards helps all county residents and visitors protect

themselves against their effects.

Risk assessments were performed that identified and evaluated priority hazards that could impact

the City. Vulnerability assessments summarize the identified hazards’ impact on the City. Estimates

of potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures are presented. The risk and vulnerability

assessments were used to determine mitigation goals and objectives to minimize near-term and

long-term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards. These goals and objectives are the foundation

for a comprehensive range of specific attainable mitigation actions (see Section 7.0, Mitigation

Strategy).

2.0 PLAN PURPOSE AND AUTHORITY

Federal legislation historically provided funding for disaster preparedness, response, recovery, and

mitigation. The Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) of 2000, also commonly known as “The 2000 Stafford

Act Amendments” (the Act), constitutes an effort by the federal government to reduce the rising cost

of disasters. The legislation reinforces the importance of mitigation planning and emphasizes

planning for disasters before they occur.

Section 322 of the DMA requires local governments to develop and submit mitigation plans to

qualify for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Grant Program

(HMGP) funds. The 2022 MJHMP meets the statutory requirements of DMA 2000 (P.L. 106-390),

enacted October 30, 2000, and 44 CFR Part 201 – Mitigation Planning, Interim Final Rule,

published February 26, 2002. The HMA grants include the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program

(HMGP), Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) program, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA)

program. Additional FEMA mitigation funds include the HMGP Post Fire funding associated with

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) declarations and the Building Resilient Infrastructure

and Communities (BRIC) funding associated with the 2018 Disaster Recovery Reform Act (DRRA).

DMA 2000 specifically addresses mitigation planning at the state and local levels. It identifies

requirements that allow HMGP funds to be used for planning activities and increases the amount of

HMGP funds available to states that have developed a comprehensive, enhanced mitigation plan

before a disaster. State, county, and local jurisdictions must have an approved mitigation plan in

place before receiving post-disaster HMGP funds. These mitigation plans must demonstrate that

their proposed projects are based on a sound planning process that accounts for the risk to and the

capabilities of the individual communities.

Local governments have certain responsibilities for implementing Section 322, including:

• Preparing and submitting a local mitigation plan;

• Reviewing and updating the plan every five years; and

• Monitoring mitigation actions and projects.

To facilitate implementation of the DMA 2000, FEMA created an Interim Final Rule (the Rule),

published in the Federal Register in February of 2002 at section 201 of 44 CFR. The Rule spells out

2.0. Plan Purpose and Authority

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 3

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

the mitigation planning criteria for states and local communities. Specific requirements for local

mitigation planning efforts are outlined in section §201.6 of the Rule.

In March 2013, FEMA released The Local Mitigation Planning Handbook (Handbook) as the official

guide for local governments to develop, update and implement local mitigation plans. The

Handbook complements and references the October 2011 FEMA Local Mitigation Plan Review

Guide (Guide) to help “Federal and State officials assess Local Mitigation Plans in a fair and

consistent manner.” Local jurisdictions must demonstrate that proposed mitigation actions are based

upon a sound planning process that accounts for the inherent risk and capabilities of the individual

communities as stated in section §201.5 of the Rule. The Handbook and Guide were consulted to

ensure thoroughness, diligence, and compliance with the DMA 2000 planning requirements.

DMA 2000 is intended to facilitate cooperation between state and local authorities, prompting

them to work together. It encourages and rewards local and state pre-disaster planning and

promotes sustainability as a strategy for disaster resistance. This enhanced planning network is

intended to enable local and state governments to articulate accurate needs for mitigation, resulting

in a faster allocation of funding and more effective risk reduction projects.

This LHMP was prepared as an annex to the County’s MJHMP in compliance with DMA 2000 and

applicable FEMA guidance. The following pages show the resolutions that adopt the City’s 2022

LHMP.

2.0. Plan Purpose and Authority

4 February 2023

[INSERT CITY RESOLUTION(S) ADOPTING PLAN UPDATE]

2.0. Plan Purpose and Authority

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 5

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[INSERT CITY RESOLUTION(S) ADOPTING PLAN UPDATE]

3.0. Planning Process

6 February 2023

3.0 PLANNING PROCESS

3.1 OVERVIEW

The planning process implemented for the County’s 2022 MJHMP update, including the City’s LHMP

update, utilized two different planning teams to review progress, inform and guide the update,

and directly review and prepare portions of the plan, including each jurisdictional annex. The first

team is the Mitigation Advisory Committee (MAC) and the second is the Local Planning Team (LPT).

All eight incorporated cities and the six special districts joined the County as participating agencies

in the preparation of the MJHMP update, including the cities of Buellton, Carpinteria, Goleta,

Guadalupe, Lompoc, Santa Barbara, Santa Maria, and Solvang; and special districts Cachuma

Operation and Maintenance Board (COMB), Carpinteria Valley Water District (CVWD), Goleta

Water District (GWD), Montecito Fire Protection District (MFPD), Montecito Water District (MWD),

and Santa Maria Valley Water Conservation District (SMVWCD). Each of the participating

agencies had representation on the MAC and was responsible for the administration of their own

LPT. In addition, the MAC included representatives from other state and local agencies with an

interest in hazard mitigation in Santa Barbara County, including local non-profit organizations,

special districts, and state and federal agencies. This composition ensures diverse input from an

array of voices representing all communities within Santa Barbara County.

Both the MAC and the LPTs focused on these underlining philosophies, adopted from the FEMA Local

Mitigation Plan Review Guide:

• Focus on the mitigation strategy

The mitigation strategy is the plan’s primary purpose. All other sections contribute to and inform

the mitigation strategy and specific hazard mitigation actions.

• Process is as important as the plan itself

In mitigation planning, as with most other planning efforts, the plan is only as good as the process

and people involved in its development. The plan should also serve as the written record, or

documentation, of the planning process.

• This is the community’s plan

To have value; the plan must represent the current needs and values of the community and be

useful for local officials and stakeholders. Develop the mitigation plan in a way that best serves

your community’s purpose and people.

• Intent is as important as Compliance

Plan reviews will focus on whether the mitigation plan meets the intent of the law and regulation;

and ultimately that the plan will make the community safer from hazards.

As a result, the planning process incorporated the following steps:

• Plan Preparation

3.0. Planning Process

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 7

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

• Form/validate planning team members

• Establish common project goals

• Set expectations and timelines

• Plan Development

• Validate and revise the existing conditions/situation within the planning area

• Develop and review the risk to hazards (exposure and vulnerability) within the planning

area

• Review and identify mitigation actions and projects within the planning area

• Finalize the Plan

• Review and revise the plan

• Approve the plan locally and with state and federal reviewers

• Adopt and disseminate the plan

3.2 MITIGATION ADVISORY COMMITTEE (MAC)

The City participated as a MAC member to prepare this LHMP as an annex to the 2022 MJHMP.

The City was represented by Michael Baris, Emergency Services Coordinator, on the MAC.

The MAC meetings were designed to discuss each component of the MJHMP with MAC members

and coordinate annex updates. Table 3-1 below provides a list and the main purpose and topics

of each MAC meeting.

Table 3-1. Mitigation Advisory Committee (MAC) Meetings Summary

Date Purpose

March 2021

MAC Meeting #1 (virtual)

Provided an overview of the project and why the plan is being revised

Reviewed FEMA guidance and processes

Discussed roles and responsibilities of the participating jurisdictions

September 2021

MAC Meeting #2 (virtual)

Reviewed goals of the project, role of the MAC

Summarized public outreach results

Presented hazards assessment and displayed select draft hazard maps

Conducted interactive exercise to rank hazards

October 2021

MAC Meeting #3 (virtual)

Provided results of hazard ranking methodology

Presented vulnerabilities assessment

Discussed mitigation goals, objectives, and strategies

Reviewed County goals from 2017 and compared them to new goals

Conducted interactive exercise on potential mitigation goals and strategies

October 2021

MAC Meeting #4 (virtual)

Collected feedback on 2017 mitigation strategies

3.0. Planning Process

8 February 2023

Date Purpose

October 2021

MAC Meeting #4 (virtual) - continued

Conducted interactive exercise on mitigation strategies for key hazards unaddressed in

previous MJHMP

Discussed annex updates

January 2022

MAC Meeting #5 (virtual)

Presented draft plan

Discussed key MAC/LPT review needs and key issues

Discussed annex updates to dovetail with plan update

March 2022

MAC Meeting #6 (virtual)

Review and discuss public comments received on the draft plan

Recommend a revised draft plan to decision-makers

Review annex updates for review and approval

3.3 LOCAL PLANNING TEAM (LPT)

Table 3-2 lists the City’s LPT. These individuals collaborated to identify the City’s critical facilities,

provide relevant plans, report on the progress of City mitigation actions, and provide suggestions

for new mitigation actions.

Table 3-2. City of Goleta Local Planning Team 2022

Department Title Name

Planning and Environmental Review

Department

Advance Planning

Manager

Anne Wells

Public Works Department Environmental

Services Coordinator

Melissa Nelson

Neighborhood Services

Department

Emergency Services

Coordinator

Michael Baris

Public Works Department Project Manager Teresa Lopes

Finance Department Accountant Brenda Robinson

City Manager’s Department City Manager Michelle Greene

County Fire Fire Marshal Rob Hazard

Santa Barbara Sheriff’s Office Goleta Chief of

Police

Lt. Rich Brittingham

Neighborhood Services

Department

Director of

Neighborhood

Services

Jaime Valdez

The Goleta LPT members worked directly with the Santa Barbara County Office of Emergency

Management (OEM), the consultant team, and each other to provide data, recommended changes,

and continually work on the MJHMP and LHMP updates throughout the planning process. The City

LPT met virtually as needed during the planning process to discuss data needs and organize data

collection. Table 3-3 below outlines a timeline of the LPT's activities throughout the planning process.

3.0. Planning Process

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Table 3-3. Local Planning Team Activity Summary

Meeting Dates Summary of Activity

February 2020

LPT kickoff meeting to discuss stakeholder and public involvement and refine the

scope of hazard analysis

April 2021 to January

2022

Collated data to share with hazard mitigation planning team, including hazard

identification, refreshed data layers for maps, and geographic settings.

Completed Plan Update Guides to directly inform hazard priorities and mitigation

capabilities

December 2021

LPT meeting (12/16/21) with consultant team to discuss ongoing mitigation

strategies and identify areas to improve within the plan

January and February

2022

Reviewed new maps and local vulnerabilities.

Provided input on the status of 2017 LHMP mitigation strategies.

Reviewed draft mitigation strategies and provide feedback.

Reviewed and finalized 2022 LHMP

March 2022

LPT meeting to discuss the final draft of the local annex

LPT presented a staff report to the public and Goleta City Council regarding the

LPT’s efforts in updating the City’s annex

3.4 PUBLIC OUTREACH AND ENGAGEMENT

As a participating agency in the 2022 MJHMP update, the City was directly involved in the outreach

program undertaken by the County for the 2022 MJHMP update, which involved extensive outreach

during 2021 and early 2022. The City’s MAC and LPT members participated in public outreach

efforts for the MJHMP and LHMP update planning process by distributing notices for the 6-month-

long community hazards survey (refer to Section 3.4.1 of the 2022 MJHMP) and three public

workshops (refer to Section 3.4.4 of the MJHMP). The Public Outreach Plan (POP) employed a

diversity of tools to maximize notification and participation. The POP was responsive to limitations

presented by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and focused on direct bilingual outreach using

a variety of digital tools, including a fact sheet, social media posts, emails, and press releases.

Multiple platforms and tools were used to publicize opportunities to participate. All public and

stakeholder meetings were hosted virtually through Microsoft Teams, and all outreach completed

for the project was conducted via electronic communications. Many of the meetings used an

interactive tool called Slido to collect feedback during meetings. Slido allows audience members to

answer questions during presentations, helping the County collect direct detailed feedback and

facilitate discussion. All written notices were made available in English and Spanish.

In March 2022, a staff report was brought to the Goleta City Council and the public announcing

the intent to submit the LHMP draft to FEMA and CalOES. The opportunity to review documents

was announced through social media and the City’s website. The community was welcome to submit

written or verbal comments to the City’s Emergency Services Coordinator. In addition, the

opportunity for the community to be heard was permitted during the City Council meeting before

the adoption of this plan.

Additionally, the City of Goleta conducts ongoing public outreach by utilizing several platforms to

educate the public about hazards in the community, relevant programs to safeguard and protect

4.0. Capability Assessment

10 February 2023

themselves from disaster, and actions they can take to prepare themselves for events. Below is a

list of the different platforms used and a summary of some of the programs:

• Ready SBC Website

• Social Media (Facebook, Twitter, NextDoor)

• Meetings/Workshops including noticing through GovDelivery System

• Public Surveys

• Community Emergency Response Team Training (CERT)

• Monthly Community Online Newsletter, The Monarch Press

4.0 CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT

The City LPT identified current capabilities and mechanisms available for implementing hazard

mitigation activities. This section presents a discussion of the roles of key departments, administrative

and technical capacity, fiscal resources, and summaries of relevant planning mechanisms, codes,

and ordinances.

4.1 DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND DEMOGRAPHICS

The City is located about eight miles west of the City of Santa Barbara, with a swath of

unincorporated urban area between the two cities, and is adjacent to the Santa Barbara Airport

and the University of California at Santa Barbara (UC Santa Barbara). Located along the coast,

the town has 7.9 square miles of land area, comprising a total of 5,075 acres. Goleta is in an

excellent position, as it develops its policies and governance through planning and regulatory

development, to institutionalize mitigation into its government operations.

The City of Goleta is a mostly suburban residential community with high-tech entrepreneurial

business areas. The City is located in the commercial and industrial heart of the County and has in

recent years drawn many high technology companies to the area. The City is now home to

approximately 80 research and development firms in the hi-tech field including those that specialize

in electronics, telecommunications, medical research, national security, and remote sensing

manufacturing that contribute significantly to the local economy. The City is also a regional shopping

hub with several “big box” retailers not found elsewhere in the south coast area.

According to 2019 U.S. Census Bureau data, the City is home to 32,413 residents. This population

is projected to grow to 34,884 residents by 2050 (SBCAG 2018). The average household size in

the City is 3.73 and the median household income is $92,195. Approximately 51.8 percent of City

of Goleta residents identify as White, 34.7 percent identify as Hispanic, and 13.5 percent identify

as Asian, Black, Mixed, or Other (US Census Bureau 2019)

4.2 KEY DEPARTMENTS

The following is a summary of existing departments in Goleta and their responsibilities related to

hazard mitigation planning and implementation, as well as existing planning documents and

regulations related to mitigation efforts within the community. Specific resources reviewed include

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 11

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

those involving technical personnel such as planners/engineers with knowledge of land development

and land management practices, engineers trained in construction practices related to building and

infrastructure, planners and engineers with an understanding of natural, floodplain managers,

surveyors, personnel with GIS skills and scientists familiar with hazards in the community. The

organizational chart below presents the structure of the City’s government:

4.2.1 Goleta City Council

• Provides a vision, adopts policies and regulations, and approves funding requests/budgets over

all aspects of City government

4.2.2 Goleta City Manager’s Office (Office of Emergency Services)

• Provides the leadership and supervision that, in turn, implements the policies and decisions of

the Goleta City Council, thereby ensuring the delivery of services to the community. The City

Manager oversees law enforcement and acts as a liaison to the County Fire District.

• City Manager serves as OEM Director. As noted above, Goleta is a relatively new city and has

employed a full-time emergency management staff member since October 2018. The City

Neighborhood Services Department is responsible for emergency preparedness and EOC

operations and will be responsible for the implementation of emergency management programs

for the City. Currently, Fire and Law Enforcement services are contracted through Santa Barbara

County Fire and the Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office.

• Various staff within the City Manager’s Office, Public Works Department, and Neighborhood

Services Department prepare grant applications for the City.

4.0. Capability Assessment

12 February 2023

4.2.3 City of Goleta Finance Department

The Finance Department will have a role in the implementation of the actions identified in this plan:

• Provides services associated with cost tracking and financial management of Grant Funded and

other capital improvement projects.

• Assures all aspects of City financing, funding, and expenditures are within legal, prescribed

guidelines and regulations. The Department tracks and audits expenditures.

4.2.4 City of Goleta Planning and Environmental Review Department (includes Building

Inspection, Code Enforcement andGIS)

• The Department is responsible for updating the City’s General Plan and Coastal Land Use Plan.

• Guides the physical development of the City through the implementation of the General

Plan/Coastal Land Use Plan, Zoning Code and Building Codes and is committed to enhancing

the quality of life in the community by planning for sound infrastructure and public services,

protecting the environment, and promoting high quality social and economic growth.

• Enforces Title 17 Zoning of the Goleta Municipal Code.

• Implements and/or enforces programs, plans, ordinances, and policies of the City over a wide

range of activities related to code enforcement.

• Regulates land uses and land development under plans, policies, and regulations adopted by

the City Council. Enforces local, state, and federal requirements for land development, building

construction, and specific uses. Recommends additions and revisions to existing ordinances, plans,

and policies when necessary.

4.2.5 Public Works/Engineering/Parks and Open Space Maintenance

• Enforces Floodplain Management Ordinance

• Oversee flood control and infrastructure development and improvement projects

• Provides a variety of engineering services including the review and inspection of privately

constructed public facilities, infrastructure, and subdivisions; design and inspection of publicly

funded infrastructure improvements; management and monitoring of existing and projected

traffic conditions throughout the City; preparation of the City’s long-term Capital Improvement

Program. Engineering also provides fiscal management for the City’s Parks and Open Space

Maintenance, Community Facility Districts, and Development Impact Fees (currently only

transportation impact).

• Implements and enforces programs, plans, policies, and regulations over land development and

redevelopment to assure adequate and maintainable infrastructure.

• Public Works Department, Public Works Operations is a first responder in disaster emergencies.

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 13

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

4.2.6 City of Goleta Public Safety –Police Services

Through a contract with the County, the Sheriff’s Department protects the community through the

enforcement of laws and the analysis/reduction/elimination of risks and, in times of emergency,

provides for the orderly and rapid implementation of emergency plans. The Sheriff’s Department

is a first responder in natural and manmade emergencies.

4.2.7 City of Goleta Public Safety – Fire Services

• The City’s fire services are covered through the Santa Barbara County Fire Protection District.

The County Fire Department serves and safeguards the community through a professional,

efficient, and effective system of services, which protect life, environment, and property.

• Implements programs, policies, and regulations over a wide range to reduce the loss of life,

environment, and property. The Fire Department is a first responder in natural and manmade

emergencies.

4.3 ADMINISTRATIVE AND TECHNICAL CAPACITY

The administrative and technical capabilities of the City, as shown in Table 4-1, include staff,

personnel, and department resources available to implement the actions identified in Section 7.0,

Mitigation Plan of this LHMP. Specific resources reviewed include those involving technical personnel

such as planners/engineers with knowledge of land development and land management practices,

engineers trained in construction practices related to building and infrastructure, planners and

engineers with an understanding of natural or manmade hazards, and floodplain managers. The

City’s department heads multitask in many areas. The City of Goleta has an Emergency Services

Coordinator position to oversee all factors of Emergency Management within the City.

Table 4-1. City of Goleta Administrative and Technical Capacity

Personnel Resources Yes/No Department/Position

Planner/engineer with knowledge of land development/land

management practices

Yes

Public Works Department

Engineer/professional trained in construction practices related to

buildings and/or infrastructure

Yes

Public Works Department

Planner/engineer/scientist with an understanding of natural

hazards

Yes

Public Works Department

Personnel skilled in GIS Yes

Planning and

Environmental Review

Full-time building official Yes

Contractor, Willdan in

Planning and

Environmental Review

Floodplain manager Yes

Public Works Department

4.0. Capability Assessment

14 February 2023

Personnel Resources Yes/No Department/Position

Emergency manager Yes

Neighborhood Services

Department

Grant writer Yes

Neighborhood Services &

Public Works Departments

Other personnel N/A

GIS Data Resources

(Hazard areas, critical facilities, land use, building footprints, etc.)

Yes

Planning and

Environmental Review /

Contractor

Warning Systems/Services

(Reverse 9-11, cable override, outdoor warning signals)

Yes

City Manager’s Office

(PIO)

Other N/A

4.4 LEGAL AND REGULATORY CAPABILITIES

The legal and regulatory capabilities of the City are shown in Table 4-2, including existing

ordinances and codes that affect the physical or built environment of Goleta. Examples of legal

and/or regulatory capabilities can include the City’s building codes, zoning ordinances, subdivision

ordinances, special purpose ordinances, growth management ordinances, site plan review, general

plans, capital improvement plans, economic development plans, emergency response plans, and

real estate disclosure plans.

Table 4-2. City of Goleta Legal and Regulatory Capability

Regulatory Tool

(ordinances, codes, plans)

Yes/No

General Plan Yes

Zoning ordinance Yes

Subdivision ordinance Yes

Growth management ordinance No

Floodplain ordinance Yes

Other special-purpose ordinances (stormwater, steep slope, wildfire)

Yes, Community Wildfire

Protection Plan

Building code Yes

Fire code Yes

Fire department ISO rating

Through a contract with

Santa Barbara County

Fire Department

Erosion or sediment control program Yes

Stormwater management program Yes

Site plan review requirements Yes

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 15

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Regulatory Tool

(ordinances, codes, plans)

Yes/No

Capital improvements plan Yes

Economic development plan Yes

Local emergency operations plan Yes

Other special plans

Flood insurance study or other engineering studies for streams Yes

Elevation certificates (for floodplain development) Yes

4.5 FINANCIAL RESOURCES

Goleta’s FY 2020-2021 General Fund revenue increased over the prior year’s (2019-2020)

budget from $28.35 million to $28.80 million. The Fiscal Year 2020-2021 General Fund budget

included over $11.7 million for General Government, Neighborhood & Public Safety Services, and

Planning and Environmental Services. The General Fund balance is an important element that can

show Goleta’s financial strength.

Table 4-3 shows specific financial and budgetary tools available to the City such as community

development block grants; capital improvements project funding; authority to levy taxes for specific

purposes; fees for water, sewer, gas, or electric services; ability to incur debt through general

obligations bonds; and withholding spending in hazard-prone areas.

Table 4-3. City of Goleta Fiscal Capability

Financial Resources

Accessible or Eligible to

Use (Yes/No)

Has This Been Used for

Mitigation in the Past?

Comments

Community Development

Block Grants (CDBG)

Yes Yes

San Jose Creek Flood

Control Project

Capital improvements

Yes Yes

Authority to levy taxes for

specific purposes

Yes No

Fees for water and sewer

service

Yes No

Incur debt through general

obligation bonds

No No

Incur debt through special

tax bonds

No No

4.0. Capability Assessment

16 February 2023

Financial Resources

Accessible or Eligible to

Use (Yes/No)

Has This Been Used for

Mitigation in the Past?

Comments

Incur debt through private

activity bonds

No No

Federal Grant Programs

(Hazard Mitigation Grant

Program)

Yes Yes

4.6 EDUCATION AND OUTREACH CAPABILITIES

This type of local capability refers to education and outreach programs and methods already in

place that could be used to implement mitigation activities and communicate hazard-related

information. Examples include natural disaster or safety-related school programs; participation in

community programs such as Firewise or StormReady; and activities conducted as part of hazard

awareness campaigns such as an Earthquake Awareness Month (February each year), National

Preparedness Month (September), or the Great California ShakeOut (a statewide earthquake drill

that happens annually on the third Thursday of October). The City can capitalize on its existing

educational capacities, even non-hazard related such as school partnerships, and build new

capabilities to educate the larger community on hazard risk and mitigation options.

In addition to the countywide resources described in Section 4.2.5, County Education and Outreach

Capabilities, the City conducts community outreach to its citizens on special events and community

information updates. Information about community hazards and actions is provided on the City’s

website and social media platforms.

4.7 RELEVANT PLANS, POLICIES, AND ORDINANCES

The City has a range of guidance documents and plans for each of its departments. These include

a general plan, public works, and public utility plans, capital improvement plans, and emergency

management plans. The City uses building codes, zoning ordinances, subdivision ordinances, and

various planning strategies to address how and where development occurs. One of the essential

ways the City guides its future is through policies laid out in the General Plan/Coastal Land Use

Plan. The LHMP directly informs these plans and is used to evaluate the need for adjustments or

updates to existing plans and programs. The City considers the LHMP’s assessment of capabilities,

hazards, and vulnerabilities to inform planning, capital improvements, programs, decision-makers,

and the public. The City also implements mitigation actions through the City’s general plan, capital

improvement program, maintenance programs, grant programming, community outreach, and

budget process.

4.7.1 City of Goleta Economic Development Strategic Plan

Goleta’s Economic Development Strategic Plan (“EDSP”) seeks to accomplish two primary goals: job

creation and job retention. It attempts to leverage local strengths and capitalize on local

opportunities. Its goals are to create a diverse employment base and a balanced approach to

economic development; to establish a plan to increase tourism; to improve access to financial capital

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 17

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

and human resources; to establish the City of Goleta as a “green tech” and sustainable community;

to increase and expand local partnerships; to continue to improve and enhance the City’s permitting

process; and to focus economic development on Old Town and update the Old Town Revitalization

Plan. The Plan also guides decisions related to land use and economic development and outlines

strategies to retain, enhance and expand the City’s business base.

Amongst the many themes within the General Plan, Protecting Health and Safety is most relevant

toward striving to maintain the environments necessary to minimize health and safety hazards –

including hazardous materials, flooding, geological hazards, and excessive noise. Similar to the

Strategic Plan, the Economic Development Plan acknowledges the need to re-invest in and to

revitalize Old Town. Its goal is to secure funding to complete the San Jose Creek Flood Control

Project since the existing infrastructure inhibits economic development efforts. Moreover, it justifies

such an investment by proposing that the additional loan, insurance costs, and requirements create

a difficult re-investment environment. The Economic Plan also emphasizes the need to work with the

County Flood Control District to explore additional funding options to create improvements to the

San Jose Flood Control Channel and other similar projects.

In summary, by providing an economic perspective on the need to reduce areas susceptible to

hazards – such as floods – greater impetus may be delivered for the funding of such mitigation

projects. This would result in a more attractive economic environment, which would, in turn, result in

the revitalization of Old Town. The last EDSP was completed in 2009, and the City is in the process

of updating the document.

4.7.2 City of Goleta Emergency Operations Plan and Threat Analysis

The City of Goleta recognizes that the planning process must address each hazard that threatens

the City and addressed major threats in a December 2021 revised plan. There are three broad

categories of hazards: natural, technological or man-made, and national security. The section of the

Emergency Operations Plan consists of a series of threat assessments, which individually or jointly

could require evacuation and/or sheltering of the population. They are:

Earthquake. Within the larger jurisdictional area of Santa Barbara County – which includes the

City of Goleta- numerous faults are located both on- and off-shore. The economic impact on the

City would be considerable in terms of loss of employment and loss of tax base. Expected

ramifications include long-term homelessness, significant disruptions to business and local commerce,

and reduced government resources. Damages are expected along U.S. Highway 101, State Route-

154, Highway 150, Santa Barbara airport, local railroads, harbor facilities, and other critical

facilities and utilities.

When notified of a short-term earthquake prediction, the area at risk is responsible to inform all

cities within the County. (A notification procedure is listed in the EOP). Resources would then be

concentrated in this area. Agencies would inspect and prepare those facilities and systems which

are essential to conduct emergency operations, advise and provide guidance to the public on

precautions, and take any other precautions necessary.

Hazardous Material. The increasing volume and variety of hazardous materials that are

generated, stored, or transported within Santa Barbara County is a problem of great concern to

public officials and the community. The threat of a major hazardous material incident in Santa

4.0. Capability Assessment

18 February 2023

Barbara County exists from four different sources. These are commercial vehicles, rail and air

transportation, pipeline, fixed facility, and clandestine dumping. With regards to emergency

response actions, the authority is vested in the Santa Barbara County Certified Unified Program

Agency, or CUPA, which is the agency responsible for the development and implementation of the

Santa Barbara County Hazardous Materials Emergency Response Plan. The Santa Barbara County

Area Plan includes information on agency responsibilities, evacuation procedures, cleanup funding,

emergency medical resources, as well as an inventory of supplies and communications equipment.

Flooding. The Goleta Valley is subject to flooding from the overflow of local streams, which along

with their respective evacuation routes are identified through flood maps. Although there are nine

major dams in Santa Barbara County with known populations in their inundation areas, the City of

Goleta did not identify dam failure as a major threat to its population.

Wildfire. Annually, the County experiences fires that often burn “out of control” and can damage

the watershed and structures. County, city fire departments, State and federal agencies have

developed emergency response actions associated with wildfire disasters. Copies of these plans

are on file in the City of Goleta’s Emergency Operating Center.

Hydrogen Sulfide. Hydrogen sulfide is a gas that can cause odors from natural seeps, well drilling,

agricultural irrigation, and oil industry activities. Exposure can cause respiratory symptoms and can

eventually be fatal.

4.7.3 City of Goleta Municipal Codes for Flood Risk

The City of Goleta participates in the National Flood Insurance Program. To minimize the risk of

flooding, the City of Goleta has alerted property owners that the Flood Plain Management

Ordinance applies to their property. It intends to avoid exposing new development to flood

hazards. As part of this strategy, the Flood Hazard Overlay Map is developed, which reflects the

boundaries of special flood hazard areas as shown on the current Federal Emergency Management

Agency (FEMA) maps on file with the office of the City Clerk. Whether or not any proposed

development is subject to the provisions of Chapter 15.10, Floodplain Management, of the Goleta

Municipal Code, is determined by the City’s Public Works Director.

Various municipal codes refer to flood risk, including:

GMC 15.10.020 Findings of Fact. This municipal code acknowledges flood hazard areas and the

potential impact on the City of Goleta. It states the potential losses include loss of life and property,

health and safety hazards, disruption of commerce and governmental services, extraordinary public

expenditures for flood protection and relief, and impairment of the tax base. It also acknowledges

that flood losses are caused by the cumulative effect of obstructions in areas of special flood

hazards which increase flood heights and velocities.

GMC 15.10.030 Statement of Purpose. This refers to the purpose of Chapter 15, which is to

promote public health, safety, general welfare, and to minimize public and private losses due to

flood conditions in specific areas by provisions designed: to protect human life and health; to

minimize publicly funded expenditures; to help maintain a stable tax base with minimal interruption

to business; and to inform buyers of flood hazard areas.

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 19

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

GMC 15.10.040 Methods of Reducing Flood Losses. This section includes provisions for restricting

uses dangerous to health, safety, and property due to water or erosion hazards, which may result

in increases in erosion or flood heights or velocities; requiring that uses vulnerable to floods are

protected against flood damage; controlling the alteration of natural floodplains, stream channels,

and natural protective barriers which help accommodate or channel flood waters; controlling filling,

grading and dredging which may increase flood damage; and preventing or regulating the

construction of flood barriers which will unnaturally divert flood water or which may increase flood

hazards in other areas.

GMC 15.10.070 Basis for Establishing the Areas of Special Flood Hazard. This section states that

all areas of special flood hazard identified by the Federal Insurance Administration of the Federal

Emergency Management Agency in the Flood Insurance Study dated September 1978 and the

Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM), dated March 15, 1979, and all subsequent amendments and/or

revisions, are adopted.

GMC 15.10.220 Coastal High Hazard Areas. Requirements for new construction along coastal high

hazard areas are listed in this section. Primarily, it states that all new developments and substantial

improvements within these areas be elevated on adequately anchored pilings or columns, with the

lowest horizontal structural member being at or above the base flood level. Furthermore, it requires

that new construction be located landward of the reach of mean high tide; excavation of dunes is

not permitted; and structural support cannot be defined by fill. The floodplain administrator would

obtain and maintain structure certification with section 15.10.220.A.

GMC 15.10.160 Standards of Construction. This section provides details on the structural

requirements to minimize flooding. They include standards for anchoring and elevations as adopted

by the jurisdiction, the Federal Insurance Administration, and the Federal Emergency Management

Agency.

4.7.4 Repetitive Loss Properties

Repetitive loss properties are defined as property that is insured under the NFIP that has filed two

or more claims over $1,000 each within any consecutive 10-year period since 1978. The City is

unaware of any repetitive loss properties within the City of Goleta.

4.7.5 City of Goleta Stormwater Management Plan

In the State of California, the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) and the various

Regional Water Resource Control Boards (RWRCBs) implement mandates of the Federal Clean

Water Act and the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit program. During

one of their studies, the SWRCB determined that urban runoff is a leading cause of pollution through

the state and a contributor to pollutants of concern (POC), such as nutrients, pathogens,

hydrocarbons, metals, trash, and pesticides to waterways. In compliance with various federal and

state requirements, the City as a municipality and operator of a separate stormwater system (MS4)

has prepared the Stormwater Management Plan (SWMP) to guard against the detrimental effects

on human health and the surrounding ecosystems.

The City’s SWMP was approved by the Central Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board

(CCRWQCB) (Water Board) on February 4, 2010. The goal of the SWMP for the City of Goleta

4.0. Capability Assessment

20 February 2023

is to reduce the discharge of storm water pollutants into water bodies and to protect and improve

water quality within the city.

Illicit Discharge and Detection and Elimination

The goal of this control measure is to identify and eliminate sources of illicit discharge and illegal

dumping. The BMPs proposed by the City of Goleta include mapping of the storm drainage system

and the adoption of a new storm water discharge ordinance that will address all forms of illicit

discharges, including all animal waste, and/or waste disposal which affect water quality.

Construction Site Runoff Control

The purpose of construction site runoff controls is to prevent soil and construction waste from entering

storm water. It is required that construction sites implement best management practices and

emergency response plans in order to protect surrounding creeks and watersheds.

Post-Construction Stormwater Management in New Development and Redevelopment

One of the most effective ways to reduce pollution from urban runoff is through Low Impact

Development (LID) design strategies. Once a project is built, it is complex and expensive to correct

runoff problems. The goal of the program is to integrate basic and practical storm water

management techniques into new development and redevelopment projects to protect water

quality.

The City of Goleta will also develop regional watershed management plans. Regional

watershed management plans will decrease pollution from development and will help

decrease pollution from any debris generating events. Pollution Prevention/Good

Housekeeping for Municipal Operation

The City examines any actions that will reduce the amount and type of pollution that 1) collects on

public streets, open spaces, storage areas, and infrastructure that is discharged into local

waterways; and 2) results from actions that may environmentally damage land development and

flood management practices or affect the maintenance of storm and sewer systems. Performing

proper and timely maintenance on storm water systems may allow the City to avoid costly repairs

from age and neglect.

In summary, though these new standards reflect the compliance of water quality standards by the

City of Goleta, their effects are also translated into a reduction of flood risk. This is evidenced

through stormwater drainage maintenance and repair, public outreach efforts on pollution and

overall stormwater events, and the development of new pre- and post-construction regulations.

Alongside pollution prevention controls and good housekeeping, it is expected that not only would

residents be better protected from contaminated waters, but it would also establish the best

management practices that would minimize the risk of flooding.

Full Trash Capture

The purpose of this program is to prevent all trash pollution from entering City watersheds and

creeks through installation of full trash capture systems or equivalent measures such as cleanup

programs, litter removal, and more.

4.0. Capability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 21

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

4.7.6 City of Goleta Strategic Plan and Capital Improvement Plan

The City of Goleta’s Strategic Plan is used as an important organization and management tool to

help establish priorities, connect staff actions to Council goals, and inform the public of the City’s

vision for the community.

The 2019-2021 Strategic Plan includes safety objectives such as continuing CERT training and

reviewing current evacuation plans and procedures. Goals include increasing visibility for

pedestrian and traffic safety and improving fire service response times.

4.7.7 City of Goleta General Plan/Coastal Land Use Plan

Safety Element

The City of Goleta has adopted several policies identified in the Safety Element in the Goleta

General Plan. The LHMP is incorporated by reference in the Safety Element. The City of Goleta’s

primary objectives are to avoid siting of development or land use activities in hazardous areas,

and if required, apply appropriate mitigation measures to lessen or minimize exposure to hazards.

Additional significant Safety Element objectives include:

•

Minimizing the risk of potential short- and long-term hazards associated with the operation of

the Venoco Ellwood facilities and other oil and gas extraction, processing, and transportation

facilities.

•

Attaining a high level of emergency preparedness to limit damage and risks to public safety

from natural and industrial hazards and to have effective and efficient emergency recovery

procedures in place to minimize social, environmental, and economic disruption following an

emergency.

•

Working with the City of Santa Barbara to minimize the risk of potential hazards associated

with aircraft operations at the Santa Barbara Airport.

•

Minimizing the potential for loss of life, property, economic and social disruption resulting

from

earthquakes or seismically induced hazards through the adoption of updated California Building

Code requirements and requiring geotechnical studies for new construction where appropriate.

Land Use Element

The Land Use Element of the General Plan suggests that the City would like to concentrate

development within the City limits and the Urban Growth Boundary line. Its Sphere of Influence is

coterminous with the City Limits and Urban Growth Boundary. Therefore, growth patterns in the

near future would be infill. The preference of not expanding the Sphere of Influence is mandated

in the General Plan so that agricultural, watershed and open space lands are not prematurely or

unnecessarily converted to other non-agricultural or non-open space uses without public debate and

a vote of the people. The protection of such lands not only ensures the continued viability of

agriculture, but also contributes to flood control and protection of wildlife, environmentally sensitive

areas, and irreplaceable natural resources.

The Land Use Element contains several policies that promote hazard mitigation. New development

is restricted from areas where natural conditions are likely to pose a substantial threat to public

4.0. Capability Assessment

22 February 2023

safety or produce excessive maintenance costs. To ensure all residents do not lack necessary utilities,

all new development is not allowed unless adequate public services are available to serve the

development. The City will also investigate the potential for changing land use designations and

zoning districts for properties subject to flooding and with limited access to open space as needed

through amendments to the Land Use Element as needed. As part of this LHMP update, there have

been no changes to land use vulnerabilities that would require amendments to the Land Use Element.

Since the last update of the City’s LHMP in 2017, the City adopted a new zoning code in March

2020. During that process, Goleta’s Planning and Environmental Review Department reviewed land

use and population data and found no significant changes have occurred relative to the City’s

vulnerability to hazards. Some additional measures were put into place such as stream-side

protection requirements that would reduce flood hazards. Among other changes were additional

protection relative to airport safety. For example, within the approach zone certain uses were

prohibited such as storage of hazardous materials.

Further, minimal development has occurred consistent with the adopted Land Use Element and has

primarily compromised infill development and redevelopment within the City limits. There has been

no expansion of the City boundary or its Sphere of Influence (SOI) and no comprehensive changes

to the Land Use Element that would result in substantial densification. As a result, the City’s level of

vulnerability to hazards analyzed in Section 6.0, Vulnerability Assessment, has not substantially

changed due to land use, development, or population growth.

4.8 OPPORTUNITIES FOR MITIGATION CAPABILITY IMPROVEMENTS

The City continuously strives to mitigate the adverse effects of potential hazards through its existing

capabilities while also evaluating the opportunities for improvements. Based on the capability

assessment, the City has existing regulatory, administrative/technical, education/outreach, and

fiscal mechanisms in place that help to mitigate hazards. In addition to these existing capabilities,

there are opportunities for the City to expand or improve on these policies and programs to further

protect the community:

• Regulatory Opportunities: As part of this update, the City will comply with AB 2140 by

amending its Safety Element to incorporate the LHMP by reference. The City will consider the

LHMP in policy, land use plans, and programs, including wildfire management and coastal

hazard and sea level rise planning.

• Administrative/Technical Opportunities: The City continues to improve its resilience to ensure

emergency response operations are sustained during a hazardous event, including

improvements to public safety facilities and planning. The City aims to improve its resilience to

ensure emergency response operations are sustained during a hazardous event, including

seismic upgrades to critical facilities such as the Goleta Community Center, updating its

Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP), and developing a new fire station in western

Goleta to improve emergency response. The City aims to address hydrologic issues through

continued improvements to its drainage and stormwater management infrastructure.

Enhancements to hazard training for staff in partnership with the County and other agencies or

5.0. Hazard Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 23

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

stakeholders would improve the City’s ability to mitigate hazards with the latest knowledge and

resources.

• Outreach Opportunities: Enhanced community outreach, emergency notifications, and trainings

would further enhance the City’s capabilities to respond to and recover from hazards. The City

could expand outreach through digital tools such as social media, participate in the Great

California ShakeOut, and increase FireWise outreach events and media coverage. Community

outreach especially to the City’s Spanish-speaking population, emergency notifications, and

trainings would further enhance the City’s capabilities to respond to and recover from hazards.

• Fiscal Opportunities: The City can update its CIP to include hazard mitigation actions from the

LHMP and related documents such as Economic Development Strategic Plan. The City will

continue to seek grants (e.g., HMGP, BRIC) to fund these CIP projects and related projects in the

City’s mitigation strategy. The City can seek opportunities to partner with the County and/or

other stakeholder agencies in grant applications to address regional hazards more effectively.

The City could also consider expanding its fiscal capabilities through its annual budget process

and other revenue measures (e.g., raising taxes, property assessments, bonds).

5.0 HAZARD ASSESSMENT

5.1 OVERVIEW

The purpose of this section is to review, update, and/or validate the hazards identified for the

2022 City of Goleta LHMP. The intent is to confirm and update the description, location and extent,

and history of hazards facing the City now and in the future. This assessment also considers the

potential exacerbating effects of climate change. The importance of this review is to ensure that

decisions and mitigating actions are based on the most up-to-date information available.

Another purpose of this section is to screen the hazards to determine their relative probability and

severity to inform the risk posed to various communities and resources. This assessment will provide

an understanding of the significance by ranking hazards by their priority in the City.

In 2021, the MAC reviewed and revised 1) the list of hazards by community or geographic area;

2) the information and material presented for each hazard; and 3) the prioritization of the hazards.

The City refined the list of hazards applicable to the City and confirmed the hazard prioritization.

The following sections provide the results of this effort.

5.2 HAZARD SCREENING/PRIORITIZATION

The Hazard Assessment presented here reflects the City’s 2022 review and modifications to the

updated risk assessment presented in Chapter 5.0, Hazard Assessment, and Chapter 6.0,

Vulnerability Assessment of the 2022 MJHMP. Applicable hazard information from the City’s 2017

LHMP was incorporated during the development of this section. A comprehensive treatment of

hazards and their descriptions may be found in Chapter 5.0 of the Santa Barbara County 2022

MJHMP.

5.0. Hazard Assessment

24 February 2023

The potential extent, probability, frequency, and magnitude of future occurrences were all used to

identify and prioritize the list of hazards most relevant in the City. The City LPT completed the Plan

Update Guide to rank the hazards and identify key hazards to help inform this assessment

(Appendix A). As summarized in Table 5-1, the local priority hazards in the City are based on the

screening of frequency/probability of occurrence, geographic extent, potential magnitude/severity

of the hazard, and overall significance. Local experience, MAC/LPT input, and community feedback

also informed the assessment of local priority hazards. After reviewing the localized hazard maps

and exposure/loss assessment provided in the 2022 MJHMP, the following hazards were identified

by the Goleta LPT as their top priorities (Appendix A). A brief rationale for each hazard is included

below. This assessment of key hazards in the City is provided in addition to the 2022 MJHMP’s

comprehensive assessment of regional hazards that may affect the City.

Table 5-1. City of Goleta Local Priority Hazards

Hazard Type and Ranking Score

Planning Consideration

Based on Hazard Level

Wildfires 11 Significant

Earthquakes 11 Significant

Flooding 9 Moderate

Coastal Hazards 4 Low

Tsunamis 4 Low

To continue compliance with the DMA of 2000, the City accepts the County’s natural hazard profiles

presented in Chapter 5.0, Hazard Assessment with the following notes and refinements or

elaborations provided specifically for the City in subsections below. After reviewing the County’s

hazard ranking, the City’s LPT decided to remove several hazards (e.g., windstorm, hailstorm,

tornado, oil spill, terrorism, civil disturbance, etc.) from the detailed analysis given the low

significance of these hazards for the City. The remaining hazards were ranked based on the

planning consideration for them, and it was decided that Wildfires Earthquakes, and Flooding all

required significant planning consideration, while Coastal Hazards and Tsunamis only require

limited planning consideration. Based on these rankings, the City’s LHMP focuses on the most

significant hazards facing the community: Wildfires, Earthquakes, Flooding and to a lesser extent,

Coastal Hazards and Tsunamis. While other hazards (including Agricultural Pests, Aircraft Crash,

Civil Disturbance, Cyber Threat, Dam Failure, Drought, Energy Shortage & Resiliency, Extreme

Heat/Freeze, Geologic Hazards, Hazardous Material Releases, Invasive Species, Landslides,

Mudflow and Debris Flow, Natural Gas Pipeline Rupture and Storage Facility Incidents, Oil Spills,

Pandemic/Public Health Emergencies, and Train Accidents) have the potential to occur within the

City, these hazards are covered in greater detail in the 2022 MJHMP.

For example, the City identified power outages/public safety power shutoffs as a potential hazard

in the City. The most recent public safety power shutoffs in the City occurred on January 18, 2021,

and are likely to happen again as Southern California Edison improves its infrastructure and wildfire

conditions become year-round concerns. Power outages can be life-threatening for residents that

rely on life-sustaining technology like oxygen concentrators. Power is often shut off during high heat

weather events and other natural hazard events, such as wildfire and flood. Power outages and

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 25

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

public safety power shutoffs would threaten residents that are sensitive to heat. This hazard is

discussed further in section 5.6.1, Energy Shortage and Resiliency, within the MJHMP.

5.3 WILDFIRE

5.3.1 Description of Hazard

Wildfires can be classified as either a wildland fire or a wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire. The

former involves situations where wildfire occurs in an area that is relatively undeveloped except for

the possible existence of basic infrastructures such as roads and power lines. A WUI fire includes

situations in which a wildfire enters an area that is developed with structures and other human

developments. In WUI fires, the fire is fueled by both naturally occurring vegetation and the urban

structural elements themselves. According to the National Fire Plan issued by the U.S. Departments

of Agriculture and Interior, the wildland-urban interface is defined as “…the line, area, or zone

where structures and other human development meet or intermingle with undeveloped wildland or

vegetative fuels.” WUI areas in the City include developed single-family neighborhoods

immediately adjacent to the foothills of the Santa Ynez Mountains and Los Padres National Forest

(refer to Figure 5-2 of the MJHMP).

Certain conditions must be present for a wildfire hazard to occur; a large source of fuel must be

present, the weather must be conducive (generally hot, dry, and windy), and fire suppression sources

must not be able to easily suppress and control the fire. The cause of a majority of wildfires is

human-induced or lightning; however, once burning, wildfire behavior is based on three primary

factors: fuel, topography, and weather. Fuel will affect the potential size and behavior of a wildfire

depending on the amount present, its burning qualities (e.g., level of moisture), and its horizontal

and vertical continuity. Topography affects the movement of air, and thus the fire, over the ground

surface. The terrain can also change the speed at which the fire travels, and the ability of

firefighters to reach and extinguish the fire. Weather as manifested in temperature, humidity, and

wind (both short and long term) affect the probability, severity, and duration of wildfires. The

climate, topography, and vegetation in Santa Barbara County are conducive to wildfires.

5.3.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Santa Barbara County Fire has synthesized data at a more local level to convey communities at

risk. To help protect people and their property from potential catastrophic wildfire, the National

Fire Plan directs funding to be provided for projects designed to reduce the fire risks to communities.

A fundamental step in achieving this goal was the identification of communities that are at high risk

of damage from wildfire. These high-risk communities identified within the WUI were published in

the Federal Register in 2001. At the request of Congress, the Federal Register notice only listed

those communities neighboring federal lands. The list represents the collaborative work of the 50

states and five federal agencies using a standardized process, whereby states were asked to

submit all communities within their borders that met the criteria of a structure at high risk from

wildfire. The list of federally regulated (communities that adjoin federal lands) communities at risk

within Santa Barbara County includes the City of Goleta.

5.0. Hazard Assessment

26 February 2023

The City of Goleta ranked the wildfire hazard as being a significant planning concern for the City.

For example, Goleta has significant fire risk due to the invasive Eucalyptus trees in open spaces

and existing development along the foothills creating a significant wildland-urban interface area.

A complete description of wildfire hazards within the County is provided in Section 5.3.1 of the

MJHMP.

5.3.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Because Santa Barbara County is prone to wildfires, there is a long history of wildfires in the County.

However, not all of these fires threatened the City of Goleta. Over the last ten years, Santa

Barbara County experienced 9 major fires. Three of these fires had the potential to impact the City

of Goleta (refer to Figure 5-4 of the MJHMP):

• The Alisal Fire in 2021 burned 16,970 acres, shut down Highway 101, and forced dozens of

people to evacuate. The fire destroyed 12 homes and damaged one other. OEM issued an

evacuation order for about 300 residents in the Alisal Fire burn area (CBS Los Angeles 2021).

• The Whittier Fire in 2017 burned over 18,000 acres above Camp Whittier on the north slope

of the Santa Ynez near Lake Cachuma primarily within the Los Padres National Forest and

private ranchlands. The fire was active for 167 days. In total, 16 homes and 30 outbuildings

were destroyed. One home and six outbuildings were damaged. Thousands of campers in and

around the Cachuma Lake Recreation area and nearby Paradise Road had to flee, leaving

eerie ghost towns of pitched tents and picnic lunches on the tables as they fled (Santa Maria

Times 2021).

• The Sherpa Fire burned over 7,400 acres in Santa Barbara County, west of Goleta, for 27

days (National Interagency Fire Center 2021). The blaze prompted evacuation orders for El

Capitan and Refugio State Beaches as well as for the ranches in El Capitan Canyon. The fire

destroyed the water system for El Capitan State Beach, which remained closed for weeks. At

the peak of the fire, 2,000 firefighters were on site to try to contain the fire (Santa Maria Times

2021).

• The Holiday Fire burned 113 acres in July of 2018. The fire highly impacted Goleta with

residents being evacuated north of Patterson and Cathedral Oaks. The direct impacts

associated with the fire led to the creation of the Emergency Services Coordinator position within

the City. The cause of the fire was due to a combination of strong sundowner winds, unkept

vegetation, and electrical utility equipment.

• The Gap Fire burned almost 10,000 acres and began to the northeast of Goleta in 2008.

5,000 people would be displaced due to evacuation orders, and 150,000 Southern California

Edison customer were without power.

5.3.4 Probability of Occurrence

Vegetation and topography are significant elements in the identification of the fire threat zones. A

substantial amount of the vegetation in Santa Barbara is commonly called chaparral, it is a dense

and scrubby bush that has evolved to persist in a fire-prone habitat. Chaparral plants will

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 27

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

eventually age and die; however, they will not be replaced by new growth until a fire rejuvenates

the area. Chamise, manzanita, and ceanothus are all examples of chaparral which are quite

common in Santa Barbara County and the foothills above Goleta.

Santa Barbara County was subject to 42 major wildfires over 88 years, resulting in a 48 percent

chance of occurrence in any given year. Fire threat is a combination of two factors: 1) fire frequency

or the likelihood of a given area burning, and 2) potential fire behavior. These two factors are

combined to create four threat classes ranging from Moderate to Extreme. While the probability

for the City of Goleta is likely lower due to the Pacific Ocean to the south and agricultural orchards

to the north, the threat remains Moderate. However, portions of western Goleta are adjacent to

High and Very High threat areas.

5.3.5 Climate Change Considerations

Climate change plays a significant role in wildfire hazards. The changing conditions from wet to

dry can create more fuel; the increased possibility of high winds increase risk and present a

challenge, and drought conditions could hinder the ability to contain fires. Large wildfires also have

several indirect effects beyond those of a smaller, local fire. These may include air quality and

health issues, road closures, business closures, and other forms of losses. Furthermore, large wildfires

increase the threat of other disasters such as landslides and flooding.

5.4 EARTHQUAKE & LIQUEFACTION

5.4.1 Description of Hazard

The City of Goleta ranked the earthquake hazard as being a significant planning concern for the

City. An earthquake is caused by a release of strain within or along the edge of the Earth's tectonic

plates producing ground motion and shaking, surface fault rupture, and secondary hazards, such

as ground failure. The severity of the motion increases with the amount of energy released

decreasingwith distance from the causative fault or epicenter and is amplified by soft soils. After

just a few seconds, earthquakes can cause massive damage and extensive casualties.

Most people are familiar with the Richter scale, a method of rating earthquakes based on strength

using an indirect measure of released energy. The Richter scale is logarithmic. Each one-point

increase corresponds to a 10-fold increase in the amplitude of the seismic shock waves and a 32-

fold increase in energy released. For example, an earthquake registering 7.0 on the Richter scale

releases over 1,000 times more energy than an earthquake registering 5.0.

Table 5-2. Richter Scale

Richter

Magnitudes

Earthquake Effects

Less than 3.5 Generally not felt but recorded.

3.5-5.4 Often felt, but rarely causes damage.

5.0. Hazard Assessment

28 February 2023

Richter

Magnitudes

Earthquake Effects

5.5-6.0

Slight damage to well-designed buildings. Can cause major damage to poorly

constructed buildings over small regions.

6.1-6.9 Can be destructive in areas up to about 100 kilometers across residential areas.

7.0-7.9 Can cause serious damage to larger areas.

8 or greater Can cause serious damage in areas several hundred kilometers across.

Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a measure of the strength of ground shaking. Larger peak

ground accelerations result in greater damage to structures. PGA is used to depict the risk of

damage from future earthquakes by showing earthquake ground motions that have a specified

probability (10%,5%, or 2%) of being exceeded in 50 years return period. These values are often

used for reference in construction design, and in assessing relative hazards when making economic

and safety decisions.

Liquefaction is the phenomenon that occurs when ground shaking causes loose, saturated soils to lose

strength and act as a viscous fluid. Liquefaction causes two types of ground failure: lateral spread

and loss of bearing strength. Lateral spreads develop on gentle slopes and entail the sidelong

movement of large masses of soil as an underlying layer liquefies. Loss of bearing strength occurs

when the soil supporting structures liquefy, causing the structures to settle; resulting in potential

damage.

5.4.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta

As previously mentioned, Santa Barbara County is located in a high seismic activity zone in the

Transverse Range geologic province. The movement of continental plates manifests primarily on the

San Andreas Fault system. The San Andreas Fault is situated seven miles northeast of Santa Barbara

County; active faults in the San Andreas Fault system that fall within Santa Barbara County include

the Nacimiento, Ozena, Suey, and Little Pine faults. Other active faults in the region include the Big

Pine, Mesa, Santa Ynez, Graveyard-Turkey Trap, More Ranch, Pacifico, Santa Ynez, and Santa

Rose Island faults. The Santa Barbara County Comprehensive Plan Seismic Safety and Safety

Element provides descriptions of all faults in Santa Barbara County. This list includes historically

active, active, potentially active, and inactive faults, as well as their location and fault length. Maps

included in this plan are based on data provided by the County of Santa Barbara, consistent with

the MJHMP that this report is an annex to. Actual shaking during an earthquake will vary depending

on the location and nature of the fault rupture. Figure 5-1 shows the probability of areas of the

county experiencing 2 percent shaking within the next 50 years. These values are often used for

reference in construction design, and in assessing relative hazards when making economic and

safety decisions.

After earthquakes, some regions may be prone to liquefaction. On level ground, liquefaction results

in water rising to the ground surface. On sloping ground, liquefaction will usually result in slope

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 29

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failure such as the event at the Sheffield Dam in the aftermath of the 1925 Santa Barbara

earthquake. Liquefaction risk is considered high if there are soft soils (Types D or E) present.

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) rates soils from hard to soft and

gives the soils ratings from Type A through Type E. The hardest soils are rated Type A, and the

softest soils are rated Type E. The majority of the soils in Santa Barbara County are types A-C, with

some areas having type D. There have been no Type E soils identified. Liquefaction risk is also

determined by the depth to groundwater. Most of the low coastal plan and valley bottoms are

underlain by alluvium and given a moderate rating with respect to liquefaction potential.

5.4.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Santa Barbara County is located in a high seismic activity zone and as such has a long history of

earthquakes. Although most seismic activity in California occurs on the San Andreas Fault system,

most historic seismic events in the Santa Barbara region have been centered offshore on an east-

west trending fault between Santa Barbara and the Channel Islands. Several smaller earthquakes

have taken place in the past years, including two magnitude 2.0 earthquakes in March 2021 in the

Santa Ynez Valley and a magnitude 2.3 earthquake in April 2021 near the City of Lompoc

(Earthquake Track 2021). These approximate magnitude 2.0 earthquakes are fairly common in the

county.

While more extensive discussion of previous earthquakes in Santa Barbara County is available in

the Seismic and Safety Element of the Santa Barbara County Comprehensive Plan, Table 5-9 of

the MJHMP provides an overview of significant events within the last 50 years. Figure 5-10 of the

MJHMP displays historical epicenters of earthquakes located in Santa Barbara County since 1700.

5.4.4 Probability of Occurrence

The USGS and their partners, as part of the latest Uniform California Earthquake Rupture

Forecast Version 3, have estimated the chances of having large earthquakes throughout

California over the next 30 years. Statewide, the rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7

(the size of the 1994 Northridge earthquake) has been estimated to be one per 6.3 years (more

than 99 percent likelihood in the next 30 years); in southern California, the rate is one per 12

years (93 percent likelihood in the next 30 years) (refer also to Table 5-10 of the MJHMP).

5.4.5 Climate Change Considerations

While climate change is not expected to directly affect earthquake frequency or intensity; it could

exacerbate indirect or secondary impacts of earthquakes. For example, climate change could

increase the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, which in turn increases the

probability of landslides and liquefaction events during an earthquake if the earthquake coincided

with a wet cycle (California Natural Resources Agency 2018).

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30 February 2023

Figure 5-1. Santa Barbara County Probability of Shaking 2% in 50 Years

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 31

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

5.5 FLOOD

5.5.1 Description of Hazard

A flood is a general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation on land that is

normally dry. Several factors determine the severity of floods, including rainfall intensity and

duration, antecedent moisture conditions, surface permeability, and geographic characteristics of

the watershed such as shape and slope.

A large amount of rainfall in a short time can result in flash flood conditions, as can a dam failure

or other sudden spill. The National Weather Service’s definition of a flash flood is a flood occurring

in a watershed where the time of travel of the peak of flow from one end of the watershed to the

other is less than six hours.

Another form of flooding occurs when coastal storms produce large ocean waves that sweep across

coastlines making landfall. Storm surges inundate coastal areas, destroy dunes, and cause flooding.

If a storm surge occurs at the same time as high tide, the water height will be even greater. The

County historically has been vulnerable to storm surge inundation associated with tropical storms

and El Nino events.

5.5.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta

The geographical location, climate, and topography of Santa Barbara County make the county

prone to flooding. In regions such as Santa Barbara, without extended periods of below-freezing

temperatures, floods usually occur during the season of highest precipitations or during heavy

rainfalls after long dry spells. Additionally, due to the Mediterranean climate and the variability

of rainfall, streamflow throughout the County is highly variable and directly impacted by rainfall.

Watercourses can experience a high amount of sedimentation during wet years and high amounts

of vegetative growth during dry and moderate years.

The drainages in the southern part of the County are characterized by high intensity, short duration

runoff events, due to the relatively short distance from the top of the Santa Ynez Mountains to the

Pacific Ocean. In particular, the City experiences flooding along Hollister Road between Los

Carneros and Highway 217. Runoff from high intensity, short-duration storm events can cause

inundation of overbank areas, debris including sediment, rock, downed trees in the water that can

plug culverts and bridges, erosion and sloughing of banks, and loss of channel capacity due to

sedimentation.

The City is traversed by the floodplains of creeks that drain the Santa Ynez Mountains, with the

degree of flood hazard varying substantially by community and creek. Las Vegas Creek has been

channelized and San Jose Creek has been partially channelized, reducing but not eliminating, flood

hazards. Other creeks such as Maria Ygnacia Creek in the Goleta Valley remain in a more natural

condition with the corresponding potential for flood hazards. Flood control debris basins have been

constructed on many of these creeks to intercept sediment and debris, reducing the potential for

plugging of downstream creek channels and associated flood hazards.

Another contributing factor to flooding is the county’s location along the Pacific Ocean. With its 110

miles of coastline, low-lying portions of communities in the county are susceptible to wave attack,

5.0. Hazard Assessment

32 February 2023

coastal flooding, and storm surge. In particular, Goleta Beach County Park is subject to wave

attacks, coastal flooding, and storm surges. Additionally, portions of the City are subject to flooding

due to flash flooding, urban flooding, river channel overflow, and downstream flooding.

5.5.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Flooding has been a major problem throughout Santa Barbara County’s history. Santa Barbara

County has several hydrologic basins that have different types of flooding problems, including over

bank riverine flooding, flash floods, tidal flooding/tsunamis, and dam failure. The most common

flooding in Santa Barbara is due to riverine flooding and flash flood events.

Between 1906 and 2018, Santa Barbara County experienced 22 significant inland flood events.

Eight of these floods received Presidential Disaster Declarations. Section 5.3.4 of the MJHMP

describes the floods, including information concerning the nature of the flooding and the extent of

the damages.

The most damaging flood in the City occurred on January 10, 1995. In Goleta, debris clogged

culverts under Los Carneros Road and Highway 101, causing the Los Carneros and San Pedro

creeks to overtop the highway and flow down Calle Real. Homes in the vicinity were flooded with

up to three feet of mud and debris. Significant localized flooding also occurred in the commercial

district known as Old Town Goleta. This flood and mudslide affected approximately 510 properties

along the South Coast and caused roughly $50 million of damage (County Flood Control 1995;

Santa Barbara Bucket Brigade 2019).

5.5.4 Probability of Occurrence

The 100-year flood is a flood that has a one percent chance in any given year of being equaled

or exceeded. The 500-year flood is the flood that has a 0.2 percent chance of being equaled or

exceeded in any given year.

5.5.5 Climate Change Consideration

Climate change is projected to amplify existing flood hazards through increased frequency and

strength of El Niño events and rainfall intensity. Extreme weather events have become more frequent

over the past 40 to 50 years and this trend is projected to continue. Up to half of California’s

precipitation comes from a relatively small number of intense winter storms, which are expected to

become more intense with climate change. For example, what is currently a 200-year storm, or one

that has a 1 in 200 chance of occurring in a given year, by 2100 would increase in frequency by

40 to 50 years (to a 1 in 150/160 chance in a given year). This means that the 100-year and

500-year floodplains may expand, and the current floodplains may become 40- to 50-year

floodplains (Santa County Barbara Planning and Development Department 2021). The frequency

and intensity of heavy rainstorms are projected to increase, causing fluvial flooding along the City’s

creeks, although overall annual precipitation levels are expected to increase only slightly. For

discussion regarding the impacts of climate change on coastal flooding and sea level rise, see

Section 5.1.4, Coastal Hazards.

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City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 33

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

5.6 COASTAL HAZARDS

5.6.1 Description of Hazard

Erosion is a natural process that alters existing geomorphic features. Erosion can occur due to several

factors, including winter storms, tidal action, wind‐generated high surf, wave action, and rising sea

levels.

Coastal storms produce large ocean waves that sweep across low-lying coastlines making landfall.

Storm surges can inundate coastal areas, destroy dunes, and cause flooding. If a storm surge occurs

at the same time as high tide, the water height will be even greater. Historically, the county has

also been vulnerable to storm surge inundation associated with El Niño events and a related

increase in storm severity.

5.6.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta

The impacts from wave runup and erosion affect portions of the western Goleta coastline and areas

south of Goleta around the Santa Barbara Airport and unincorporated Goleta Beach area.

Existing coastal hazards along the county’s 110-mile-long shoreline tend to be concentrated along

the South Coast due to extensive existing shoreline development. The South Coast has a long history

of exposure to coastal hazards from bluff retreat to coastal erosion and flooding. Low-lying areas

such as Goleta Beach County Park have experienced coastal flooding due to storms surges and

wave attacks. Bluff erosion is another serious local hazard with annual bluff erosion rates generally

varying from 6 inches to one foot per year, depending upon location. Wave attack and coastal

erosion at Goleta Beach County Park have been a long-running policy dispute regarding how to

manage this vulnerable public facility. In response to these coastal hazards, private property

owners and local governments have erected rock revetments and seawalls to attempt to protect

public and private improvements from coastal hazard damage. The UPRR has also installed both

concrete seawalls and rock revetments to protect the railroad tracks along the South Coast from

Carpinteria to Gaviota. The long-term effects of such coastal protection structures are subject to

debate, as well as their secondary impacts on natural coastal processes and sand supply.

5.6.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Historical coastal erosion is a recurring and ongoing hazard in south county and is particularly

severe along the City’s coastline and adjoining areas in the unincorporated community of Isla Vista.

Following severe coastal storms, such as the El Niño’s of 1983 and in 2015/2016, serious beach

erosion and damage occurred at Goleta Beach County Park. Subsequent storms in 2017 destroyed

recently installed geotextile revetment structures and severe erosion at the Park. Coastal erosion

hazards have resulted in the adoption of required city and County blufftop setbacks for

development in coastal communities generally require a minimum of 75 years of structural life. In

the City of Goleta, the majority of coastline adjoins the Ellwood-Mesa Open Space Area.

5.0. Hazard Assessment

34 February 2023

5.6.4 Probability of Occurrence

Coastal flooding from tidal inundation and wave attack and associated erosion of coastal bluffs

and beaches occurs during many winters but is most pronounced during past major El Niño events,

which have return intervals of 2 to 7 years. Although many private coastal properties and public

facilities have been protected by rock revetments or seawalls, coastal flooding, beach and bluff

erosion continue in areas such as the City. While the existing probability of occurrence is typically

confined to El Niño seasons or major storm events, as discussed below, climate change and sea level

rise are projected to increase in frequency and severity of occurrence.

5.6.5 Climate Change Considerations

Climate change is both a present threat and a slow-onset disaster. It acts as an amplifier of existing

hazards. Extreme weather events have become more frequent over the past 40 to 50 years and

this trend is projected to continue. Rising sea levels, changes in rainfall distribution, and intensity are

expected to have a significant impact on coastal communities, including portions of Goleta. Sea

level rise (SLR) is defined as the rising of the level of the sea as a result of the so-called greenhouse

effect or global warming. SLR can occur through one or more of three processes that include eustasy,

isostasy, or thermal expansion. SLR coupled with increased frequency, severity, and duration of

high tide and storm events related to climate change will result in more frequent and severe extreme

events along the coast. These events could expose the coast to severe flooding and erosion, damage

to coastal structures and real estate, and salinity intrusion into delta areas and coastal aquifers

(Projecting Future Sea Level, A Report from the California Climate Change Center, 2006).

5.7 TSUNAMI

5.7.1 Description of Hazard

The City of Goleta ranked the tsunami hazard as being a limited planning concern for the City, but

it is worth mentioning as a subset of earthquake hazards. A tsunami is a series of long waves

generated in the ocean by a sudden displacement of a large volume of water. Underwater

earthquakes can cause this displacement. Tsunami waves travel at speeds averaging 450 to 600

miles per hour. As a tsunami nears the coastline, its speed diminishes, its wavelength decreases, and

its height increases. Depending on the type of event that creates the tsunami, as well the remoteness

of the event, the tsunami could reach land within a few minutes or after several hours. Low-lying

areas could experience severe inland inundation of water and deposition of debris more than 3,000

feet inland.

5.7.2 Location and Extent of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Areas prone to tsunami hazards in the county are limited to coastal areas and offshore areas. The

cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria are most susceptible to tsunami hazards, given that they

are located on or near several offshore geological faults, the more prominent faults being the Mesa

Fault, the Santa Ynez Fault in the mountains, and the Santa Rosa Fault (refer to Section 5.3.3 of the

MJHMP). Other unnamed faults in the offshore area of the Channel Islands may present tsunami

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 35

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

hazards. These faults have been active in the past and can subject the entire county coastal area

to seismic action at any time.

5.7.3 History of Hazard in the City of Goleta

Thirteen possible tsunamis have been observed or recorded in the county from local earthquakes

between 1812 and 1988; however, there have been no recorded locally generated tsunamis since

1988. Additionally, these tsunami events were poorly documented, and the precise extent of

environmental and public impacts is uncertain (refer to Section 5.3.9 of the MJHMP).

5.7.4 Probability of Occurrence

The University of Southern California (USC) Tsunami Research Group has modeled areas in the

county that could potentially be inundated in the event of a tsunami. In 2001, the Tsunami Research

Group concluded the walls of the basin that form the Santa Barbara Channel are susceptible to

submarine slope failures in at least two mapped locations (USC 2001). This model is based on

potential earthquake sources and hypothetical extreme undersea, near-shore landslide sources. The

data was mapped by the California Geological Survey and Cal OES for Tsunami Evacuation

Planning. The maps and data are compiled with the best currently available scientific information

and represent areas that could be exposed to tsunami hazards during a tsunami event. The tsunami

inundation map helps to assist cities and counties in identifying their tsunami hazard areas. Figure

5-20 shows tsunami hazard areas of Santa Barbara County and Figure 5-21 provides a closer look

at tsunami hazard areas of Santa Barbara County’s south coast. Given, there is a medium

probability of an earthquake, which would result in high impacts including potential tsunami events

in the City, the City is has a low risk of future tsunami events.

5.7.5 Climate Change Considerations

Tsunamis are created by earthquakes or other earth movements. To date, no direct relationship has

been made between climate change and the occurrences of earthquakes or other earth movements.

6.0 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

The vulnerability assessment builds on the hazard assessment provided in Section 5.0 to estimate

losses where data is available and consider a specific list of critical facilities identified within the

City of Goleta. The City identified 70 critical facilities to be included in the Vulnerability Assessment

portion of the LHMP. These facilities primarily included utilities, government, and educational

structures. Of the available data, it was shown that these buildings are worth approximately

$22,948,787 in total building value (i.e., structural and content value) (Table 6-1). No values were

able to be obtained for some major facilities, so the actual value may be much more than this

amount.

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

36 February 2023

Table 6-1. Critical Facilities in the City of Goleta

Type Name Address

Total Building

Value

Power Plant Ellwood 30 Las Armas Rd -

Food Market Camino Real Marketplace 704 Market Place Dr -

Shelter SB AHR Shelter Main Office 5473 Overpass Rd $309,034

RMP Facilities Raytheon Vision Systems 75 Coromar Dr -

RMP Facilities Venoco S. Ellwood Onshore Oil And Gas Plant 7979 Hollister Ave -

Animal

Shelter

Sb Ahr Dog Kennel (Old) 5473 Overpass Rd $155,070

Clinic Goleta Valley Hospital 351 South Patterson Ave -

Clinic Sansum Clinic-Patterson 122 S. Patterson Ave -

Clinic Buena Vista Care Center 160 South Patterson Ave -

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 14

320 Los Carneros Rd -

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 12

5330 Calle Real -

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 11

6901 Frey Way -

EMS Station American Medical Response Station 5 104 South Patterson Avenue -

Nursing Home Mariposa At Ellwood Shores 190 Viajero Dr -

Nursing Home Maravilla 5486 Calle Real -

Nursing Home Buena Vista Care Center 160 S Patterson Ave -

Education Ellwood Elementary 7686 Hollister Ave -

Education Learning Tree Preschool 401 N. Fairview Ave -

Education Dos Pueblos Senior High 7266 Alameda Ave -

Education La Patera Elementary 555 N. La Patera Ln -

Education Kellogg Elementary 475 Cambridge Ave -

Education Brandon Elementary 195 Brandon Dr -

Education Santa Barbara Charter 6100 Stow Canyon Rd -

Education Goleta Valley Junior High 6100 Stow Canyon Rd -

Education Montessori Center School 401 N Fairview Ave # 1 -

Education Coastline Christian Academy 5950 Cathedral Oaks Rd -

Education Waldorf School of Santa Barbara 7421 Mirano Dr -

Fire Station Fire Station #14 320 Los Carneros Rd $452,156

Fire Station Fire Station #14 Generator House 320 Los Carneros Rd $17,401

Government Goleta Valley Community Center 5679 Hollister Avenue $15,000,000

Government

City Of Goleta Corporation Yard

Building/Public Works

6735 Hollister Avenue $2,000,000

Government Goleta City Hall 130 Cremona Drive -

Highway

Patrol

California Highway Patrol - Santa Barbara 6465 Calle Real -

Library Goleta Library 500 N. Fairview Avenue $5,000,000

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 37

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Type Name Address

Total Building

Value

Sheriff Sheriff Hollister Substation 5827 Hollister Ave $7,140

Sheriff Sheriff Calle Real Marketplace Substation 7042 Marketplace Drive $7,986

Sheriff

Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Department -

City of Goleta Substation

130 Cremona Drive, City Hall -

Bottom Floor - Suite B

Bridge Bridge

HWY 101 / 'WINCHESTER

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge SR-217 / 'HOLLISTER AVE' -

Bridge Bridge

'LOS CARNEROS Rd / 'US

HIGHWAY 101'

Bridge Bridge

'CATHEDRAL OAKS Rd / 'US

HIGHWAY 101'

Bridge Bridge

'GLEN ANNIE ROAD' / 'GLEN

ANNIE CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'HOLLISTER AVE' / 'MARIA

YGNACIO CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'HOLLISTER AVE' / 'SAN JOSE

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'STOW CANYON RD' / 'SAN

PEDRO CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'LOS CARNEROS RD' /

'CARNEROS CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'CALLE REAL RD' / 'LAS VEGAS

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge 'PATTERSON AVE' / HWY 101 -

Bridge Bridge

N HWY 101 - W SR217

CONNECTR' / 'UPRR HWY 101'

Bridge Bridge HWY 101 / 'CARNEROS CREEK' -

Bridge Bridge

HWY 101 / 'GLEN ANNIE

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'E217-S101 CONNECTR' /

'UPRR HWY 101 OFFRMP'

Bridge Bridge

HWY 101 NB ONRAMP' /

'TECOLOTITO CREEK'

Bridge Bridge 'STORKE ROAD' / HWY 101 -

Bridge Bridge 'FAIRVIEW AVE' / HWY 101 -

Bridge Bridge HWY 101 / 'LAS VEGAS CREEK' -

Bridge Bridge

HWY 101 -FAIRVIEW AVE' /

'LAS VEGAS CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

HWY 101 / 'SAN PEDRO

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge PATTERSON AVE / UPRR -

Bridge Bridge

'CALLE REAL' / 'SAN JOSE

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'CATHEDRAL OAKS RD' / 'SAN

PEDRO CREEK'

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

38 February 2023

Type Name Address

Total Building

Value

Bridge Bridge

'CATHEDRAL OAKS RD' /

'CARNEROS CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'CATHEDRAL OAKS RD' / 'GLEN

ANNIE CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'LOS CARNEROS RD' /

'TECOLOTITO CREEK'

Bridge Bridge

'SHIRRELL WAY' / 'LAS VEGAS

CREEK'

Bridge Bridge 'STORKE RD' / UPRR -

Bridge Bridge 'LOS CARNEROS RD' / UPRR -

Bridge Bridge 'CATHEDRAL OAKS RD' / UPRR -

Bridge Bridge HWY 101 / San Jose Creek -

Bridge Bridge HWY 101 NB / San Jose Creek -

Using a GIS and the mapped extents of the hazards affecting the City, it was determined which

critical facilities are exposed to which hazards depending on whether they fall within the mapped

hazard area. The results of the exposure analysis are included in this section. A further description

of the threats and methodologies used in this analysis is provided in Chapter 6.0, Vulnerability

Assessment of the 2022 MJHMP. As the City continues to assess its vulnerability, the collection of

better and more complete data will help to improve the risk assessment process to direct planning

and mitigation decisions.

Table 6-2. Summary of Potential Impacts on Critical Facilities

Hazard Type Specific Risk Count

% of Critical

Facilities Impacted

Exposure ($)

Flood

FEMA 1% Chance

Flood Zone

15 21% $15,007,140

FEMA 0.2% Chance

Flood Zone

3 4% $-

Coastal Hazards

Sea Level Rise (200

cm)

2 3% $-

Tsunami 0 0 $0

Wildfire

Low Wildfire Threat 3 4% $-

Moderate Wildfire

Threat

1 1% $2,000,000

Earthquake

Low Liquefaction

Potential

17 24% $7,986

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 39

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Hazard Type Specific Risk Count

% of Critical

Facilities Impacted

Exposure ($)

Moderate

Liquefaction Potential

3 4% $-

High Liquefaction

Potential

50 71% $22,940,801

Regional Ground

Shaking

70 100% $22,948,787

6.1 WILDFIRE

The county has extensive areas within mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zones and Wildland-Urban

Interface (WUI) areas. These hazard areas generate vulnerability for life and structures, including

critical facilities, throughout the county, but most severely within rural foothills areas where dry

vegetation, steep slopes, and difficult access combine to create a high probability of wildfire. Based

on these maps, the City has 4 acres (0.8 percent) within Very High Wildfire Threat areas, 52 acres

(1.02 percent) within High Wildfire Threat areas, 599 acres (11.86 percent) within Moderate

Wildfire Threat areas, and 267 acres (5.28 percent) within Low Wildfire Threat areas. These

vulnerable areas are home to 1,709 residents and are valued at $876,655,035.

Based on the GIS analysis conducted for the 2022 MJHMP, in Goleta, 652 properties with a total

value of over $876 million are vulnerable to wildfire. Most of these areas are residential with

limited vulnerabilities in commercial, agricultural, and industrial areas. In Goleta, approximately

1,709 residents live in high, moderate, or low wildfire threat areas. This information is summarized

in Table 6-3 below.

Table 6-3. City of Goleta at Risk to Wildfire Threat

Property

Type

Improved Parcel Count by Wildfire Threat Level

Total Value Population

Extreme

Very

High

High Moderate Low Total

Agricultural

0 0 0 1 2 3 $1,126,116

Commercial 0 0 0 12 0 12 $132,850,720

Exempt

0 0 0 3 2 5 $2,520,690

Industrial

0 0 0 6 0 6 $24,089,715

Mixed Use 0 0 0 0 0 0 $0 0

Residential

0 0 1 624 1 626 $716,067,794 1,709

Improved

Vacant 0 0 0 0 0 0 $0

Total

0 0 1 646 5 652 $876,655,035 1,709

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

40 February 2023

Four of the City’s critical facilities fall within moderate or low wildfire threat areas, as listed in

Table 6-4 (see also, Section 6.3.1, Wildfire of the 2022 MJHMP).

Table 6-4. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Wildfire

Type Name Hazard Source/Type

Total Building

Value

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 14

Low Wildfire Threat -

Government

City of Goleta Corporation Yard

Building/Public Works

Moderate Wildfire Threat $2,000,000

Bridge Bridge Low Wildfire Threat -

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 41

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Figure 6-1. City of Goleta Critical Facilities within Wildfire Threat Zones

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

42 February 2023

6.2 EARTHQUAKE & LIQUEFACTION

Chapter 6.0, Vulnerabilities Assessment of the 2022 MJHMP addresses regional seismicity under two

scenarios that include the City of Goleta. The 2,500-year scenario considers general seismicity from

multiple faults in the region and a 7.0 magnitude event. The methodology utilizes probabilistic

seismic hazard contour maps developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the 2018 update

of the National Seismic Hazard Maps that are included with Hazus-MH. A deterministic scenario

was also prepared to predict the outcome of a specific earthquake event. The deterministic

scenarios used USGS provided ShakeMap datasets to model a Magnitude 7.4 earthquake of the

Red Mountain Fault. This scenario assesses the effect that an earthquake sourced from this fault

would generate in terms of damages and losses for the chosen area of interest (i.e., southern Santa

Barbara County, including the City). Figure 6-1 is the ShakeMap produced for this scenario.

As described in the MJHMP, regional losses to people and property would include the City. As

shown in the Red Mountain Fault ShakeMap scenario, the south and central parts of the county

would perceive much stronger shaking and would likely receive the most severe damage when

compared to the rest of the county. The entire City would perceive severe to extreme shaking and

would likely receive moderate/heavy to very heavy damage. Direct effects of ground shaking

could damage buildings and create dangerous debris and unstable structures. Displaced residents

would likely seek shelter in the City, including residents from outside the City. Further, fires often

occur after an earthquake. Because of the number of fires and the lack of water to fight the fires,

they can often burn out of control.

Unreinforced masonry building type structures consist of buildings made of unreinforced concrete

and brick, hollow concrete blocks, clay tiles, and adobe. Buildings constructed of these materials

are heavy and brittle and typically provide little earthquake resistance. In small earthquakes,

unreinforced buildings can crack, and in strong earthquakes, they tend to collapse. The City does

not have any known unreinforced masonry buildings.

The City lies in an area with low, moderate, and high liquefaction severity classes. Regional

earthquakes could cause liquefaction in the City, which could damage buildings and utilities when

soils become unstable. Based on the GIS analysis conducted for the 2022 MJHMP, the City has

9,125 improved parcels valued at over $7 billion in the liquefaction severity zones. Based on this

analysis, which accounts for residents only and not workers, 23,303 residents are living in this

hazard zone within the City. While liquefaction would not likely affect all areas uniformly during

an earthquake, this analysis indicates the extent and scale of vulnerabilities to liquefaction during

a large earthquake.

Table 6-5. City of Goleta at Risk to Liquefaction Hazard by Property Type

Property Type

Improved Parcel

Count

Total Value Population

High Liquefaction Hazard

Agricultural

4 $1,189,658

Commercial

288 $782,936,722

Exempt

32 $457,565,106

Industrial

153 $746,789,160

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 43

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Property Type

Improved Parcel

Count

Total Value Population

Mixed Use

6 $31,031,524 16

Residential 3,949 $1,800,461,862 10,781

Improved Vacant

1 $18,060

Total High Liquefaction

4,433 $3,819,992,092 10,797

Moderate Liquefaction Hazard

Agricultural

1 $84,492

Commercial

6 $25,050,458

Exempt 0 $0

Industrial

8 $28,461,538

Mixed Use

0 $0 0

Residential 325 $120,414,996 887

Improved Vacant

0 $0

Total Moderate Liquefaction

340 $174,011,484 887

Low Liquefaction Hazard

Agricultural 3 $1,337,856

Commercial 54 $413,071,582

Exempt 13 $49,557,904

Industrial 25 $397,769,283

Mixed Use 0 $0 0

Residential 4,256 $2,426,929,638 11,619

Improved Vacant 1 $193,778

Total Low Liquefaction 4,352 $3,288,860,041 11,619

Total Liquefaction Hazard 9,125 $7,282,863,616 23,303

As listed in Table 6-6, 53 critical facilities in the City would be vulnerable to damage or destruction

from liquefaction during a significant regional earthquake (see also, Section 6.2.1, Earthquake

(Groundshaking) and Section 6.3.3, Liquefaction (Earthquake) of the 2022 MJHMP).

Table 6-6. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Liquefaction

Type Name Hazard Type/Source

Total Building

Value

Power Plant Ellwood Moderate -

Shelter Sb Ahr Shelter Main Office High $309,034

RMP Facilities Raytheon Vision Systems High -

RMP Facilities

Venoco S. Ellwood Onshore Oil And Gas

Plant

Moderate -

Animal Shelter Sb Ahr Dog Kennel (Old) High $155,070

Clinic Goleta Valley Hospital High -

Clinic Sansum Clinic-Patterson High -

Clinic Buena Vista Care Center High -

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

44 February 2023

Type Name Hazard Type/Source

Total Building

Value

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 14

High -

EMS Station

Santa Barbara County Fire Department

Station 12

High -

EMS Station American Medical Response Station 5 High -

Nursing Home Maravilla High -

Nursing Home Buena Vista Care Center High -

Education Learning Tree Preschool High -

Education La Patera Elementary High -

Education Kellogg Elementary High -

Education Santa Barbara Charter High -

Education Goleta Valley Junior High High -

Education Montessori Center School High -

Education Coastline Christian Academy High -

Education Waldorf School Of Santa Barbara High -

Fire Station Fire Station #14 High $452,156

Fire Station Fire Station #14 Generator House High $17,401

Government Goleta Community Center High $15,000,000

Government

City Of Goleta Corporation Yard

Building/Public Works

High $2,000,000

Government Goleta City Hall High -

Highway Patrol

California Highway Patrol - Santa

Barbara

High -

Library Goleta Library High $5,000,000

Sheriff Sheriff Hollister Substation High $7,140

Sheriff

Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s

Department - City Of Goleta Substation

High -

Bridge Bridge Moderate -

Bridge Bridge High -

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 45

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Type Name Hazard Type/Source

Total Building

Value

Bridge Bridge High -

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

46 February 2023

Figure 6-2. City of Goleta Critical Facilities and Earthquake Groundshaking Potential (Red Mountain Fault

7.4 Magnitude ShakeMap)

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 47

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Figure 6-3. City of Goleta Critical Facilities and Liquefaction Potential

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

48 February 2023

6.3 FLOOD

The geographical location, climate, and topography of the Goleta Valley make some areas of the

City prone to flooding. Flooding presents a hazard to development in floodplains. In addition to

the damage to properties, flooding can also cut off access to utilities, emergency services,

transportation, and may impact the overall economic well-being of an area. Emergency response

can be interrupted by damaged roads and infrastructure. Fire can break out as a result of

dysfunctional electrical equipment. Hazardous materials can also get into floodways, causing health

concerns and polluted water supplies. During a flood, the drinking water supply can be

contaminated. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy

rainstorms that cause riverine flooding.

Based on the GIS analysis conducted for the 2022 MJHMP, the City has 721 improved parcels

valued at over $710 million in the 1-percent annual chance floodplain. Based on this analysis, which

accounts for residents only and not workers, 1,466 residents are living in the 1-percent annual

chance floodplain throughout the City. An additional 486 improved parcels and over $520 million

in value fall within the 0.2-percent annual chance floodplain. Areas of the City vulnerable to the

0.2-percent annual chance riverine flood are home to 1,152 residents. Development in the 0.2-

percent annual chance floodplain is typically not regulated, thus a large flood event could be

extremely damaging in the City. This information is summarized in Table 6-7 below.

Table 6-7. City of Goleta FEMA Floodplain Exposure and Loss

Property Type

Improved Parcel

Count

Total Value Estimated Loss Population

Riverine 1% Annual Chance Floodplain Exposure and Loss

Agricultural 2 $507,008 $126,752

1,466

Commercial 129 $234,516,140 $58,629,035

Exempt 3 $5,616,882 $1,404,221

Industrial 50 $226,743,688 $56,685,922

Mixed Use 3 $4,200,488 $1,050,122

Residential 534 $239,159,219 $59,789,805

Total 721 $710,743,424 $177,685,856

Riverine 0.2% Annual Chance Floodplain Exposure and Loss

Commercial 19 $59,458,240 $14,864,560

1,152

Exempt 2 $136,540 $34,135

Industrial 43 $174,133,500 $43,533,375

Residential 422 $286,461,527 $71,615,382

Total 486 $520,189,807 $130,047,452

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 49

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

As listed in Table 6-8, 15 critical facilities in the City with a total value of $15,007,140 would be

vulnerable to damage or destruction from 1-percent or 0.2-percent annual chance flood (Figure 6-

4; see also, Section 6.3.3, Flood of the 2022 MJHMP).

Table 6-8. City of Goleta Critical Facilities at Risk to Flood Hazard

Type Name FEMA Flood Chance

Total Building

Value

Education Learning Tree Preschool 1% Chance -

Government Goleta Community Center 1% Chance $15,000,000

Highway Patrol California Highway Patrol - Santa

Barbara

1% Chance -

Sheriff Sheriff Hollister Substation 1% Chance $7,140

Bridge Bridge 0.2% Chance -

Bridge Bridge 1% Chance -

Bridge Bridge 0.2% Chance -

Bridge Bridge 1% Chance -

Bridge Bridge 0.2% Chance -

Bridge Bridge 1% Chance -

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

50 February 2023

Figure 6-4. City of Goleta Critical Facilities in FEMA Flood Hazard Zones

6.0. Vulnerability Assessment

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 51

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

6.4 COASTAL HAZARDS

Approximately 100 acres of the City are susceptible to sea level rise by 2030 (10.2 inches) and

145 acres by 2060 (27.2 inches). Based on the GIS analysis conducted for the 2022 MJHMP, the

City has 173 improved parcels valued at over $184 million in sea level rise coastal hazard zones.

Based on this analysis, which accounts for residents only and not workers, 278 residents are living

in this hazard zone within the City.

Table 6-9. City of Goleta at Risk to Sea Level Rise Coastal Hazards by Property Type

Property Type

Improved Parcel

Count

Total Value Population

2030 Sea Level Rise

Commercial 5 $877,542

Industrial 4 $1,373,228

Residential 9 $1,237,410 25

Total 2030 Sea Level Rise

18 $3,488,180 25

2060 Sea Level Rise

Commercial 5 $877,542

Industrial 5 $1,400,375

Residential 9 $1,237,410 25

Total 2060 Sea Level Rise

19 $3,515,327 25

200cm Sea Level Rise

Commercial 19 $14,209,396

Exempt 1 $0

Industrial 32 $70,455,265

Mixed Use 1 $1,030,196 3

Residential 83 $91,977,432 227

Total 200cm Sea Level Rise 136 $177,672,289 229

Total Sea Level Rise Hazard 173 $184,675,796 278

While no critical facilities are susceptible to sea level rise by 2030 or 2060, two facilities would

be susceptible to 200 cm of sea level rise (Table 6-10) (see also, Section 6.3.6, Coastal Hazards of

the 2022 MJHMP).

Table 6-10. City of Goleta Critical Facilities Vulnerable to Coastal Hazards

Type Name 2030 2060 200 cm

Total

Building

Value

Power Plant Ellwood No No Yes -

RMP Facilities Venoco S. Ellwood Onshore Oil And Gas Plant No No Yes -

Coastal flooding resulting from sea level rise is also documented in the 2015 City of Goleta

Coastal Hazards Vulnerability and Fiscal Impact Report. The report identifies the following specific

vulnerabilities in the City.

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

52 February 2023

• The Bacara Resort and Spa Beach House, in addition to the coastal public access to Haskell's

Beach, are vulnerable to all existing hazards, including creek flooding, coastal erosion, and

coastal flooding. The estimated replacement and relocation costs are approximately $420,000.

• The two active Lease 421 oil wells are threatened by existing coastal hazards.

• The existing coastal armoring is severely outdated and derelict, and the structure will continue

to erode and become a nuisance over time. The cost of removing this structure is approximately

$1 million. The City’s financial liability is approximately 25 percent of this amount or equates

to approximately $250,000.

• The City faces a serious potential threat from oils spills, both from active and inactive wells. The

costs of mitigating these issues are high. The estimates range from $7.9 million to $63.2 million

for capping and/or recapping the existing wells.

• The low-lying Placencia neighborhood and nearby roads are already susceptible to substantial

flooding during closed Goleta Slough conditions and creek flooding.

• FEMA has mapped 640 acres or 12 percent of the City in an existing 100-year creek flood

hazard zone.

6.5 TSUNAMI

Tsunami vulnerable areas of the City include 1 improved parcel which is home to 3 residents and is

valued at $186,506. No critical facilities are vulnerable to this tsunami hazard zone (see also,

Section 6.3.9, Tsunami of the 2022 MJHMP).

7.0 MITIGATION STRATEGY

In preparation for the 2022 LHMP update, the City’s LPT made no revisions to the countywide goals

and objectives because they continue to reflect the needs of the City; see also, Chapter 7.0,

Mitigation Plan of the 2022 MJHMP. This section contains the City’s updated and most current

mitigation strategy as of 2022.

7.1 MITIGATION PRIORITIES

7.1.1 Goals and Objectives

The City’s LPT accepted and agreed to the following goals and objectives for the 2022 update.

These goals and objectives represent a vision of long-term hazard reduction or enhancement of

capabilities.

The updated goals and objectives of this plan are:

Goal 1: Ensure future development is resilient to known hazards.

Objective 1.A: Ensure development in known hazardous areas is limited or incorporates hazard-

resistant design based on applicable plans, development standards, regulations, and programs.

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 53

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Objective 1.B: Educate developers and decision-makers on design and construction techniques

to minimize damage from hazards.

Goal 2: Protect people and community assets from hazards, including critical facilities,

infrastructure, water, and public facilities.

Objective 2.A: Enhance the ability of community assets, particularly critical facilities, to

withstand hazards.

Objective 2.B: Use the best available science and technology to better protect life and

property.

Objective 2.C: Upgrade and replace aging critical facilities and infrastructure.

Objective 2.D: Ensure mitigation actions encompass vulnerable and disadvantaged communities

to promote social equity.

Goal 3: Actively promote understanding, support, and funding for hazard mitigation by

participating agencies and the public.

Objective 3.A: Engage, inform, and educate the public on tools and resources to improve

community resilience to hazards, reduce vulnerability, and increase awareness and support of

hazard mitigation activities.

Objective 3.B: Ensure effective outreach and communications to vulnerable and disadvantaged

communities.

Objective 3.C: Increase awareness and encourage the incorporation of hazard mitigation

principles and practice among public, private, and nonprofit sectors, including all participating

agencies.

Objective 3.D: Ensure interagency coordination and joint partnerships with the County, cities,

state, tribal, and federal governments.

Objective 3.E: Continuously improve the County’s capability and efficiency at administering

pre- and post-disaster mitigation programs, including providing technical support to cities and

special districts and providing support for implementing local mitigation plans.

Objective 3.F: Monitor and publicize the effectiveness of mitigation actions implemented

countywide.

Objective 3.G: Position the County and participating agencies to apply for and receive grant

funding from FEMA and other sources.

Goal 4: Minimize the risks to life and property associated with urban and human-caused

hazards.

Objective 4.A: Minimize risks from biological hazards, including disease, invasive species, and

agricultural pests.

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

54 February 2023

Objective 4.B: Be prepared and respond to urban hazards, including terrorism, cyber threats,

and civil disturbance.

Objective 4.C: Minimize risks from energy production, including hazardous oil and gas activities.

Goal 5: Prepare for, adapt to, and recover from, the impacts of climate change and ensure

regional resiliency.

Objective 5.A: Use the best available climate science to implement hazard mitigation strategies

in response to climate change.

Objective 5.B: Identify, assess, and prepare for impacts of climate change.

Objective 5.C: Coordinate with the public, private, and nonprofit sectors to implement strategies

to address regional hazards exacerbated by climate change.

Objective 5.D: Ensure climate change hazard mitigation addresses vulnerable and

disadvantaged communities.

7.2 MITIGATION PROGRESS

Since 2017, the City has incorporated the LHMP goals, objectives, and mitigation actions into its

local plans and processes, including the General Plan Safety Element by reference, specific hazard

planning efforts (e.g., Strategic Plan), the City’s grant pursuits, and capital improvement planning.

Ongoing monitoring and evaluation of the LHMP by the City ensured mitigations are implemented

and tracked. Key mitigation actions completed since 2017 include improving the resilience of

coastal structures, including rehabilitating the Lake Los Carneros Outlet Structure, improving

stormwater infrastructure in on San Pedro Creek and Avenida Gorrion, and making substantial

progress in developing Fire Station 10 to serve western Goleta. The City’s LPT reviewed the

mitigation actions listed in the 2017 LHMP to determine the status of each action. Once reviewed,

deferred projects from 2017 were renumbered to reflect 2022 updates (see Table 7-1).

Table 7-1. Status of City of Goleta Previous Mitigation Actions

Mitigation

Action

No.

Mitigation Action Description Status Comments

In 2022

Update?

2011 LHMP

2011-1

San Jose Creek/Hollister Ave Bridge

Replacement Project

In Progress

The City of

Goleta approved a Mitigated

Negative Declaration (MND)

for the project in August

2015. The final design, right

of way, and permitting

phases are currently

underway. The final design is

at the 95% development

stage. Construction is

anticipated in 2025

2011-2

Lake Los Carneros Outlet Structure

Rehabilitation

Completed

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 55

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

Mitigation

Action

No.

Mitigation Action Description Status Comments

In 2022

Update?

2011-3

Join the NFIP Community Rating System

(CRS)

Completed

The City of Goleta joined the

National Flood Program in

2018. Verified by the FEMA

Community Status Book

2011-4 San Pedro Creeks Culvert Modifications Completed

Capacity improvements were

made in 2016 to the San

Pedro and Las Vegas Creeks

through the replacement of

culverts at Calle Real and

Hwy 101 as well as

replacement UPRR bridges

over the two creeks. The

project was led by Santa

Barbara County Flood Control

and Caltrans.

2011-5

Develop New Fire Station in Western

Goleta (Fire Station 10)

In Progress

The CA Coastal Commission

approved the project in Sept

2020 and project projected

to go to bid for construction in

the first half of 2023.

Construction projected to

begin in late 2023.

2011-6 Avenida Gorrion New Storm Drain Completed Completed in 2016

2017 LHMP

2016-1

Cathedral Oaks/Camino Laguna Vista

Storm Drain

In Progress

Renamed to Covington

Drainage System

Improvements

2016-2 Misc. Old Town Drainage Improvements In Progress

Drainage improvements are a

constant project City staff

have ongoing. No specific

project is identified in Old

Town currently. Therefore, this

action is not included in the

2022 LHMP

2016-3

Goleta Community Center – Seismic

Upgrades

In Progress

A 2021 survey showed that

the main auditorium cannot be

used for safety reasons.

Funding for ADA and seismic

concerns was awarded to the

City in May 2020. Design

work has begun for these

improvements.

7.3 MITIGATION APPROACH

Similar to the 2022 MJHMP, the City LPT used a STAPLEE methodology developed by FEMA to

allow emergency managers to apply consistent analysis to the range of mitigation options

available. Once the available mitigation actions were identified by the City LPT, each was

evaluated against the STAPLEE criteria to assist in prioritizing each measure. The STAPLEE criteria

include the following:

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

56 February 2023

• Social: Will the measure be accepted by the community? Does the measure adversely affect or

inequitably benefit any segment of the population? (e.g., disadvantaged communities,

vulnerable populations, different groups or areas)?

• Technical: How effective will the action be at protecting lives and preventing injuries? How

significant will the action be at eliminating or reducing damage to structures and infrastructure?

Would the action solve the root problem rather than a symptom?

• Administrative: Does the county have the personnel and administrative capabilities to

implement and manage the project (i.e., adequate staffing and operational capabilities to

implement the project)?

• Political: Will the measure have political and/or public support? Does the measure have a local

champion to lead its development and implementation?

• Legal: Does the jurisdiction have the legal authority to implement the action? Is it legal? Is there

potential for a legal challenge?

• Economic: Are the costs to implement the action commensurate with the benefits achieved? Is

there funding available? Will the action contribute to the local economy?

• Environmental: Does the action comply with environmental regulations? Will there be negative

environmental consequences from the action?

The City LPT used STAPLEE criteria to evaluate and prioritize the mitigation actions included in the

LHMP. Each mitigation action was assigned a numeric rank (-1, 0, or 1) for each of the evaluation

criteria, as follows

1 = Highly effective or feasible

0 = Neutral or not applicable

-1 = Ineffective or not feasible

Based on the evaluation score of each STAPLEE Criteria, mitigation actions received a cumulative

score. The cumulative score indicates the priority of mitigation actions and put the City’s mitigation

actions in priority order:

Per the DMA requirements, an emphasis was placed on the importance of benefit-cost analysis in

determining action priority. Other criteria used to assist in evaluating the benefit-cost of a mitigation

action included:

• Does the action address hazards or areas with the highest risk?

• Does the action protect lives?

• Does the action protect infrastructure, community assets, or critical facilities?

• Does the action meet multiple objectives (Multiple Objective Management)?

• What will the action cost?

• What is the timing of available funding?

The process of identification and analysis of mitigation options allowed the City LPT to come to a

consensus and to collectively prioritize recommended mitigation actions. During the City’s planning

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 57

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

process, emphasis was placed on the importance of a benefit-cost review in determining project

priority; however, this was not a quantitative analysis.

Benefit-cost was considered in the development of the Mitigation Implementation Plan detailed

below in Section 7.4. Each action developed for this plan contains a description of the proposed

project, expected project benefits, the entity or entities with primary responsibility for

implementation, a cost estimate (if available), potential funding sources (if known or available), and

a conceptual implementation schedule. Development of these project details relative to the STAPLEE

Criteria for each action led to the determination of priority for each action. Cost-effectiveness will

be further considered in greater detail through formal benefit-cost analyses when seeking FEMA

mitigation grant funding for eligible actions associated with this plan.

The intent of prioritizing mitigation actions is to help the City focus and concentrate its efforts;

however, it should be noted that when and if specialized grants and/or funds are made available

that could finance a mitigation action, the City may adjust the ranking to enable them to implement

the mitigation action.

This plan also carries forward some mitigation actions developed during the 2017 and 2011

planning processes (refer to Section 7.2, Status of Previous Mitigation Actions). The City LPT

reviewed their existing mitigation actions and reported on the progress made toward

implementation to decide whether any incomplete actions should be carried forward for continued

or future implementation or be deleted. In some cases, mitigation actions were adjusted to reflect

new situations or priorities. These measures were previously prioritized using the STAPLEE approach

in 2017; however, to account for changes to goals and objectives and changes to hazard priorities

for this plan, the MAC re-evaluated the priority of all measures included in Section 7.4.

Table 7-2 presents the prioritized list of mitigation actions that will be considered and implemented.

See attached STAPLEE scoring matrix that informed this plan update.

Table 7-2. 2022 City of Goleta Mitigation Actions and Prioritization

No.

Action Title

Total

Score

Priority

1 Goleta Community Center Seismic Upgrades 12 1

2 Develop New Fire Station in Western Goleta 11 2

3 Ellwood Mesa Neighborhood Hazard Fill Reduction Project 11 3

4 Lake Los Carneros Master Plan and Dam Improvement Project 11 4

5 Evergreen Park Drainage Repair Improvements 7 5

6 Update to Goleta Community Wildfire Protection Plan 6 6

7 San Jose Creek/Hollister Ave Bridge Replacement Project 5 7

8 Covington Drain System Improvements 5 8

9 Cathedral Oaks Crib Wall Repair 4 9

10 Ellwood Beach Drive Drainage Infrastructure Replacement 4 10

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

58 February 2023

7.4 IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

All of the mitigation actions below have been incorporated into the City’s Capital Improvement

Program, which is reviewed annually to determine if additional projects are needed to address

potential hazards.

2022-1. Goleta Community Center Seismic Upgrades

The seismic project is in the final design phase. This project is also one of multiple concerns being

addressed in a wider community center upgrade project.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 1

Hazards Mitigated Earthquake

Estimated Timeline 2024

Estimated Cost/Funding Source $5,300,000/ BRIC and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) grants

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works Department and Neighborhood Services

Comments

2022-2. Develop New Fire Station in Western Goleta

This is a joint City/County project. It has long been documented that fire service in Western Goleta

does not meet the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) guidelines for emergency response

time and population to firefighter ratio. A new fire station is needed in Western Goleta to provide

adequate fire protection services.

The project consists of the design and construction of a new fire station, approximately 11,600

square feet in size, with associated landscaping and appurtenant facilities on a City-owned parcel

located at 7952 Hollister Avenue. The site is adjacent to the Cathedral Oaks Interchange and across

the street from Sandpiper Golf Course. It is anticipated that the new fire station will be a three-

bay, single-story building and have a community meeting room. Site improvements will include an

emergency generator, an above-ground fueling facility, eight visitor parking spaces, and a

landscaped pedestrian path and striped bike path along Hollister Avenue.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 2

Hazards Mitigated All

Estimated Timeline 2024

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$24,000,000/ Fire Facility Development Impact Fees and other developer

mitigation fees, statewide loans, and local tax options

Responsible Agency/Department Department of Neighborhood Services (lead), County Fire Protection District

Comments

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 59

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

2022-3. Ellwood Mesa Neighborhood Hazard Fill Reduction Project

The project will address extremely high levels of downed, dead, flammable vegetation, including

large Eucalyptus trees. Over 90 acres of Eucalyptus forest abut residential neighborhoods and a

focused program of chipping and mowing to reduce wildfire risk is proposed. The project will also

ensure wildlife resources are protected, including habit for monarch butterflies.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 1

Hazards Mitigated Wildfire

Estimated Timeline 2023

Estimated Cost/Funding Source $1,700,000/ FEMA grants, CalFire grants

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works Department

Comments

2022-4. Lake Los Carneros Master Plan and Dam Improvement Project

The project will address long term safety of the earthen dam at Lake Los Carneros. Lake Los

Carneros Dam is an impoundment structure that creates standing water for Lake Los Carneros in

Goleta. It creates a recreation amenity and protected wildland habitat. It serves as a retention

basin for flood control.

The design lifespan of the operational appurtenances has passed and replacement is necessary.

Burrowing animals and concrete erosion have also contributed to the threats facing the dam. The

project will address these risks.

A full master improvement plan for Lake Los Carneros can be found on the City website.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 4

Hazards Mitigated Flooding, Earthquake

Estimated Timeline 2026

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$1,500,000/ BRIC and Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) and Flooding

Mitigation Assistance (FMA) grants; City CIP funding

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works Department

Comments

2022-5. Evergreen Park Drainage Repair Improvements Project

The project consists of the complete replacement of the existing 24 inch corrugated metal pipe

storm drain system starting at the 12 ft curb opening drainage inlet at the intersection of Padova

and San Rossano Drive and extending approximately 250 ft south into Evergreen Park where it

outlets into an existing concrete lined ditch. Past winter storms showed evidence that the existing

pipe system was failing with a sink hole which developed near the existing 36 Inch junction structure

at the down-drain section of the drainage system. Field investigations determined the bottom of the

existing 24 inch pipe had completely corroded away and runoff entering into the system was

running beneath the pipe undermining the entire system. As a result, the entire pipe system and all

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

60 February 2023

junction structures will need to be removed and replaced. To protect the public using the park, the

sink hole and down-drain portion of the drainage system has been fenced off.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 5

Hazards Mitigated Flooding, Earthquake

Estimated Timeline 2023

Estimated Cost/Funding Source $178,000 / City CIP General Fund

Responsible Agency/Department Public Works Department

Comments

2022-6. Update to the Goleta Community Wildfire Protection Plan (CWPP)

Goleta’s most recent CWPP was completed in 2012. CWPPs identify and prioritize areas for

wildfire fuel reduction, and the science and equipment available to measure these areas have

increased in capability. An updated CWPP will guide future actions taken to mitigate wildfire risk

in Goleta and the surrounding area.

This project is in its first stages.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 6

Hazards Mitigated Wildfire

Estimated Timeline 2025

Estimated Cost/Funding Source $200,000/ CalFire grants

Responsible Agency/Department Public Works Department

Comments

2022-7. San Jose Creek/Hollister Avenue Bridge Replacement Project

This project will construct capacity improvements to the San Jose Creek Channel that will increase

the design storm from a 25-year to a 100-year storm event. The new channel will be 50 feet wide

with vertical walls and an articulated concrete revetment bottom. The revetment will include a fish

passage. The project will require the reconstruction of the entire channel and the replacement of

the Hollister Avenue Bridge over San Jose Creek. The channel work has been completed. This

second phase of the project will replace the Hollister Avenue Bridge over San Jose Creek. The new

bridge will have a 100-year storm flow capacity and will be designed to fit with the San Jose

Creek project.

The project will reduce flooding and related impacts within Old Town Goleta by increasing the

capacity of the channel to accommodate a 100-year storm event. The project will result in a

redrawing of the FEMA flood plain maps to remove approximately 200 parcels from the flood

plain.

• Construction of channel improvements completed.

• Obtain permits

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 61

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

• Construct bridge project

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 7

Hazards Mitigated Flooding, Earthquake

Estimated Timeline 2025

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$22,000,000/ Federal Highway Bridge Program (HBP) funds. The project

will be funded 88.53% by the HBP

Responsible Agency/Department

Public Works Department – Engineering Planning and Environmental Review

Department – Building and Safety

Comments

2022-8. Covington Drainage System Improvements

This is a City flood control project proposed. Insufficient capacity of the existing storm drain system

causes repeated flooding in the area. Installation of a new storm drain line will reduce or eliminate

flooding during storm events.

• Identify funding

• Design and construct the project

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 8

Hazards Mitigated Flooding

Estimated Timeline 2026

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$3,700,000/ Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) and Flood Mitigation Assistance

(FMA) grants; City CIP funding

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works

Comments

2022-9. Cathedral Oaks Crib Wall Repair

The project includes repairing the crib walls and multi-purpose path along the north side of

Cathedral Oaks Road damaged during past storm events. A Geotechnical Engineering firm

performed a comprehensive and systematic full-scale geotechnical investigation of the two crib

walls along the northern side of Cathedral Oaks Road to determine the potential failure mechanisms

related to the crib wall design and construction.

There have been structural damages to the crib wall structure and backfill due to 2017 (January)

winter storms. High-intensity rainfall caused runoff to infiltrate backfill and caused extensive

damage to wall backfill, including material loss and scouring of wall structure embedment.

Unknown limits of damage to backfill, and potential for wall failure to affect Cathedral Oaks Road

and bike path resulting in the decision to close both facilities. The roadway has subsequently been

reopened. The bike path remains closed.

The project is in the conceptual design phase.

7.0. Mitigation Strategy

62 February 2023

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 9

Hazards Mitigated Flooding

Estimated Timeline 2024

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$8,000,000/ HWA’s Emergency Restoration (ER) program and FEMA

Disaster Relief (DR) funds

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works Department

Comments City Project No. 9053

2022-10. Ellwood Beach Drive Drainage Infrastructure Replacement

The project consists of reconstruction of the drainage system and repair of eroded slope at the end

of Ellwood Beach Drive. The existing downdrain pipe at the end of the Ellwood Beach Drive is

nonfunctioning causing drainage to bypass the down drain pipe and erode the existing slope. The

existing downdrain system must be removed and a new downdrain constructed including repair of

the eroded slope area. Existing pipes may need to be upsized to handle runoff. The project is

located within the Coastal Zone and within an ESHA area. Environmental review and coordination

with California Coastal Commission are integral tasks of the project. The system must be replaced

to prevent further erosion which if left unaddressed could extent into the existing sidewalk and

building located immediately adjacent to the project.

Mitigation Priority and Performance

Priority 10

Hazards Mitigated Flooding

Estimated Timeline 2024

Estimated Cost/Funding Source

$350,000/ Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) and Flood Mitigation Assistance

(FMA) grants; City CIP funding

Responsible Agency/Department City Public Works Department

Comments

7.4.1 Climate Change Induced Mitigation Actions

Over the next five years, the City will also be examining mitigation actions considering the findings

and recommendations resulting from predicted climate change conditions identified in the 2015

Draft City of Goleta Coastal Hazards Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report, the

findings of which are summarized below:

• Existing creek hazards (FEMA) are the highest hazard in the City. Coastal flooding will be

exacerbated by SLR, however future climate impacts on creek flooding are not available.

• Coastal flooding damages to structures in Goleta could increase dramatically by 416%

between the time horizons of 2060 and 2100.

• Adaptation costs to elevate and accommodate coastal flooding by 2100 ($175 million) exceed

damages ($14 million) and cleanup (approximately $5 million) by an order of magnitude.

8.0. Plan Maintenance

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 63

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

• The Storke Ranch neighborhood becomes exposed around 2100 when Goleta and Devereux

Sloughs come together.

• Coastal flooding impacts the light manufacturing sector the greatest between 2 and 5 feet of

SLR from 2060 to 2100.

Recommendations:

• Conduct coastal confluence modeling to better assess future vulnerabilities associated with

stream flood hazards exacerbated by sea level rise to provide projections of future flood

extents and depths.

• Engage in regional inlet management discussions with the City of Santa Barbara and the County

of Santa Barbara.

• Establish a repetitive loss policy to trigger eminent domain in combination with a Transfer of

Development (TDR) Program. Once a property had multiple flood insurance claims the policy

would take effect.

• Adjust building codes to allow for increased building heights by additional freeboard based

on sea level rise projections for parcels projected to be impacted by flooding after 2060.

• Implement the Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Reduction Act requirements. This will lessen the

City’s contribution to greenhouse gases and climate change.

Adaptation strategies are discussed in detail in Section 5 of the 2015 City of Goleta Coastal

Hazards Vulnerability Assessment and Fiscal Impact Report.

8.0 PLAN MAINTENANCE

8.1 MONITORING, EVALUATING, AND UPDATING THE PLAN

Since the last LHMP in 2017, the LPT has monitored, evaluated, and updated the plan on a

continuing and as-needed basis. The City was very successful in implementing the 2017 mitigation

actions as noted in Table 7-1. The remaining mitigation actions outlined in the 2017 LHMP are

ongoing at the time of this 2022 update.

The City of Goleta will be responsible for ensuring that this annex is monitored on an ongoing basis.

The City will continue to participate in the countywide MAC and attend the annual meeting

organized by the County Office of Emergency Management to discuss items to be updated/added

in future revisions of this plan. The MJHMP is evaluated by the MAC annually to determine the

effectiveness of programs, and to reflect changes in land development or programs that may affect

mitigation priorities. This includes re-evaluation of goals, objectives, and mitigation actions for each

jurisdiction by the MAC. The MAC also reviews the goals and mitigation actions to determine their

relevance to changing situations in the county, as well as changes in State or Federal regulations

and policy. The MAC reviews the risk assessment portion of the MJHMP and its annexes to determine

if this information should be updated or modified, given any new available data. The responsible

parties for the mitigation actions report on the status of their projects, the success of various

implementation processes, difficulties encountered, success of coordination efforts, and which

8.0. Plan Maintenance

64 February 2023

strategies should be revised. Any updates or changes necessary for the City’s LHMP will be

forwarded to the County Office of Emergency Management for inclusion in further updates to the

MJHMP.

Major disasters affecting the City of Goleta’s community, legal changes, notices from Santa

Barbara County (lead agency for the County-wide Plan), and other significant events may trigger

revisions to this plan or the convening of the LPT. The City LPT, in collaboration with the Santa

Barbara County Office of Emergency Management, and the other communities of the County, will

determine how often and when the plan should be updated.

To remain eligible for mitigation grant funding from FEMA, the City is committed to revising the plan

at a minimum of every five years. The City’s Emergency Services Coordinator or the City’s designee

will contact the County four years after this plan is approved to ensure that the County plans to

undertake the plan update process. The jurisdictions within Santa Barbara County should continue

to work together on updating the multi-jurisdictional plan, including this annex.

8.2 IMPLEMENTATION THROUGH EXISTING PLANS AND PROGRAMS

The City implements the LHMP through existing plans, programs, and procedures, as detailed in

Section 4.0, Capability Assessment. This LHMP provides a baseline of information on the hazards

impacting the City and the existing institutions, plans, policies and ordinances that help to implement

the LHMP (e.g., General Plan, building codes, floodplain management ordinance). The General

Plan/Coastal Land Use Plan and the LHMP annex are complementary documents that work together

to achieve the goal of reducing risk exposure to the City’s citizens. An update to the General Plan

may trigger an update to the LHMP. Implementation responsibilities of mitigation actions is

integrated into the operational functions of the responsibility parties identified, including

responsibility for seeking funding needed for implementation.

The City incorporates the LHMP by reference into its General Plan Safety Element. Under AB 2140,

the City may adopt its current, FEMA-approved LHMP into the Safety Element of the General Plan.

This adoption makes the City eligible to be considered for part or all of its local-share costs on

eligible Public Assistance funding to be provided by the state through the California Disaster

Assistance Act (CDAA) (see Section 2.0, Plan Purpose and Authority for the adopting resolutions).

The LHMP has also been prepared to support the City’s Emergency Operations Plan and Threat

Analysis, including completion of Fire Station No. 10 to serve western Goleta and updating the

City’s CWPP. The City’s Municipal Codes for Flood Risk and Stormwater Management Plan apply

in concert with the City’s zoning ordinance and building codes to reduce flooding hazards from land

use. The LHMP includes several mitigations addressing flood control infrastructure to support the

City’s efforts to reduce flooding hazards.

The information contained within this LHMP, including results from the Vulnerability Assessment and

the Mitigation Strategy, is used by the City to help inform updates and the development of local

plans, programs, and policies. The City may utilize the hazard information when developing and

implementing the City’s capital improvement programs and the Planning and Environmental Review

Department, including its Building Division, may utilize the hazard information when reviewing a site

plan or other type of development applications. Further, the City incorporates the LHMP by

reference into its General Plan/Coastal Land Use Plan Safety Element. Under AB 2140, the City

9.0. References

City of Goleta Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 65

Annex to the Santa Barbara County Multi-Jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan

may adopt its current, FEMA-approved LHMP into the Safety Element of its General Plan/Coastal

Land Use Plan. This adoption makes the City eligible to be considered for part or all of its local-

share costs on eligible Public Assistance funding to be provided by the state through the California

Disaster Assistance Act (CDAA) (see Section 2.0, Plan Purpose and Authority for the adopting

resolutions).

8.3 ONGOING PUBLIC OUTREACH AND ENGAGEMENT

The public will continue to be involved whenever the plan is updated and as appropriate during

the monitoring and evaluation process. Before the adoption of updates, the City will provide the

opportunity for the public to comment on the updates. A public notice (in English and in Spanish) will

be published before the meeting to announce the comment period and meeting logistics. Moreover,

the City will engage stakeholders in community emergency planning. As described in Section 3.4,

Public Outreach and Engagement, the public outreach strategy used during development of the

current update will provide a framework for public engagement through the plan maintenance

process. It can be adapted for ongoing public outreach as determined to be feasible by the MAC

and the LPT.

8.4 POINT OF CONTACT

Comments or suggestions regarding this plan may be submitted at any time to the Neighborhood

Services Director using the following information:

Jaime Valdez

City of Goleta

Attn: Neighborhood Services Dept./Emergency Services

130 Cremona Drive #B

Goleta, CA 93117

jvaldez@cityofgoleta.org

(805) 961-7500

9.0 REFERENCES

CBS Los Angeles. 2021. Drenching Rain Forces Alisal Fire Burn Area Residents In Santa Barbara

County To Evacuate. Accessed: 26 October 2021. Retrieved from:

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2021/10/25/residents-in-santa-barbara-near-alisal-fire-burn-

area-brace-for-approaching-rain-storm/

Santa Maria Times. 2021. Judith Dale: Wildfires in Santa Barbara County, 2016 to 2019. Accessed:

26 October 2021. Retrieved from: https://santamariatimes.com/lifestyles/judith-dale-wildfires-in-

santa-barbara-county-2016-to-2019/article_ba567bff-ad16-5a6e-9d85-226bcb76cce9.html.

Earthquake Track. 2021. Recent Earthquakes near Santa Barbara, California, United States.

Accessed: Retrieved from: https://earthquaketrack.com/us-ca-santa-barbara/recent.

California Natural Resources Agency. 2018. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.

Accessed: 26 October 2021. Retrieved from:

9.0. References

66 February 2023

https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/Statewide_Reports-SUM-CCCA4-

2018-013_Statewide_Summary_Report_ADA.pdf

County Flood Control. 1995. 1995 Floods. Accessed: 29 October 2021. Retrieved from:

https://www.countyofsb.org/uploadedFiles/pwd/Content/Water/1995FloodsRpt.pdf

California Department of Water Resources (DWR). 2021. Best Available Map (BAM). Accessed: 1

November 2021. Retrieved from: https://gis.bam.water.ca.gov/bam/#skip-to-content

Santa County Barbara Planning and Development Department. 2021. Draft Climate Change

Vulnerability Assessment. Accessed: 26 October 2021. Retrieved from: https://s3-us-west-

2.amazonaws.com/mysocialpinpoint/uploads/redactor_assets/documents/8c4aa5d7d81a96f88

96bce055b229c2e7ec3c010a9866b35a18b7ae86aef7067/44589/SantaBarbaraCounty_CC

VA_Report_PublicDraft_withExecSummary__09-21-21_reduced.pdf

The University of Southern California. 2001. “A Tsunami 50 Feet High Could Hit Southern

California.” https://news.usc.edu/6031/A-Tsunami-50-Feet-High-Could-Hit-Southern-California/