Press release
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATORS PUBLISH FIRST DRAFT OF
GRID DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2035, VERSION 2021
Four-week public consultation begins
Plan takes account of German government and EU
requirements on energy policy and climate policy
Integration of offshore wind energy becoming
increasingly significant
Use of innovative technologies reduces demand for grid
expansion
The transmission system operators (TSOs) 50Hertz, Amprion, TenneT
and TransnetBW have published the first draft of the Grid
Development Plan (GDP) 2035, Version 2021, at
www.netzentwicklungsplan.de. This signals the start of a four-week
public consultation process, during which comments can be submitted
online, by e-mail or in writing until 28 February 2021. The comments
will be incorporated into the second draft of the GDP, which will
subsequently be subsequently submitted to the Bundesnetzagentur
(BNetzA) for review.
As in the previous GDPs, it is apparent that the advancing energy
transition is leading to greater demand for electricity transmission
within Germany. The growing proportion of power generated from
renewable energy is thus the key driver of grid development. Ever
greater quantities of electricity from renewable sources, both onshore
and offshore, need to be integrated into the electrical system on a
reliable basis and aligned with rising demand for electricity and
increasingly flexible demand response. The draft takes account of an
energy system without nuclear power and largely without coal-fired
generation, therefore adhering to both German and European
requirements under energy and climate policy.
The GDP 2035 (2021) looks ahead in detail to 2035 for the first time,
in three scenarios, with an outlook towards 2040, and shows the need
for grid development to ensure that Germany continues to have a
reliable and efficient supply of electricity. In terms of the proportion of
gross electricity consumption, renewable energy will account for
between 70 and 74% in 2035 and 76% in 2040. These assumptions
are based on an installed renewable energy capacity of between 233
and 261 GW in 2035 and 268 GW in 2040.
The GDP 2035 (2021) shows that wind energy is the renewable energy
source for the energy transition, with power generation in the North
Sea and the Baltic in particular playing a considerably greater part.
Wind energy has the largest share of the energy mix in all scenarios
of this GDP, although there is expected to be a sharp rise in insalled
capacity and hence generation in photovoltaics, too.
GDP 2035 (2021) investment volume
The estimated investment volume for the proposed onshore measures
is put at between 72 and 76.5 billion euros. This total includes
investment in what is referred to as the “starting grid”. These include
measures for which a planning approval procedure has already been
or will soon be opened, have already received approval or are under
construction. The investments will be distributed across the years.
Need for expansion of the extra-high voltage grid
In order to meet the energy and climate policy requirements there is a
particular need for grid development measures but also expansion
measures. The majority of the projects are already included in the
Federal Requirement Plan 2021. The starting grid includes 3,640 km
of new AC lines and 2,580 km of new DC lines. In the additional grid
the measures comprise between 3,560 and 3,685 km of AC lines,
mainly grid upgrades, and between 1,855 and 2,385 km of DC lines in
2035, the majority of them offshore grid connections. In Scenarios A
and B for 2035, around 800 km of AC and DC measures are required
over and above the Federal Requirement Plan 2021, while in Scenario
C for 2035 the figure is around 1,450 km.
Need for expansion to connect offshore wind energy
The GDP and Site Development Plan together form the basis on which
the offshore grid for the North Sea and the Baltic will be developed.
On the foundation of the scenario framework approved by BNetzA and
the sites designated in the Site Development Plan 2020, investments
of between 33 and 38.5 billion euros will be made for the offshore grid
of the GDP 2035 (2021) for the integration of 28 to 32 GW of offshore
wind energy. The share of addition grid in the offshore grid is between
3,210 and 3,860 km in 2035.
Tools curbing the need to expand the onshore grid
A combination of various measures ensures that dimensioning of the
grid is in line with demand and reduced to the extent that is actually
necessary. These include assumptions regarding average weather
conditions, peak capping for power generation from onshore wind
power and PV systems and smoothing of electricity demand using
flexible electricity applications such as electromobility and heat pumps.
In determining the need for grid optimisation, grid upgrading and grid
expansion, the GDP takes explicit account of technologies such as
weather-dependent operation of overhead power lines, the use of
high-temperatures low-sag conductors and elements for active control
of power flow. The potential for future innovative technologies such as
advanced system operation concepts and grid boosters have also
been included.
The scenarios
BNetzA approved and published the scenario framework for the GDP
2035 (2021) on 26 June 2020. The scenario framework makes
assumptions regarding the energy landscape in 2035 and 2040: three
scenarios look ahead to 2035, and one scenario envisages
development through to 2040. All scenarios are set out on the basis of
the objective that power generation in Germany will be almost carbon-
neutral in 2050.
Electricity consumption levels are assumed to rise in all scenarios.
This is partly due to increasing levels of electrification in both the
heating sector and transport sector, and to growing use of power-to-X
technologies. Electricity-based decarbonisation measures in the
industry sector and increasing demand for IT computing power as a
result of digitalisation will also contribute to the rise.
Further information can be found at www.netzentwicklungsplan.de