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UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE
THEORY
OF CHANGE
UNDAF CAMPANION GUIDANCE
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UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE
1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 3
2. THE CONCEPT ................................................................................................................................. 4
What is a theory of change? ............................................................................................................................. 4
Purpose: Why use a theory of change? .............................................................................................................. 4
Methodology: How to develop a theory of change? .............................................................................................. 4
Key principles for developing a theory of change ................................................................................................ 5
Key steps for developing a theory of change ...................................................................................................... 5
3. MOVING FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE ................................................................................. 6
Step 1: Focus ................................................................................................................................................ 7
Step 2: Change analysis .................................................................................................................................. 6
Step 3: Make assumptions and risks explicit ....................................................................................................... 8
Step 4: Identify partners and key actors ............................................................................................................ 9
4. LESSONES LEARNED, TIPS AND GOOD PRACTICE FROM REAL COUNTRY
EXAMPLES ........................................................................................................................................... 10
Validate and quality assure the theory of change ................................................................................................ 7
Applying a theory of change to the UNDAF process ............................................................................................ 11
5. TOOLS AND RESOURCES ........................................................................................................... 14
TABLE OF CONTENTS
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UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE
The purpose of this companion guidance is to provide practical and hands-on technical
guidance on developing a theory of change as an integral part of the United Nations
Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) process. It should be read as a
complement to the 2017 UNDAF Guidance and relates closely to the other seven
companion guidance papers on programming principles, the UN Vision 2030, the
Common Country Analysis (CCA), communications and advocacy, capacity development,
monitoring and evaluation, and funding to financing.
A theory of change is a method that explains how a given intervention, or set of
interventions, are expected to lead to a specific development change, drawing on a
causal analysis based on available evidence. In the UNDAF context, a thorough theory of
change helps guide the development of sound and evidence-based programme
strategies, with assumptions and risks clearly analysed and spelled out.
To facilitate the process of developing a sound theory of change, the present companion
guidance proceeds as follows:
• Section 2, The Concept, further defines the theory of change and explains its
purpose as applied to the UNDAF process. It also offers a brief outline of the
methodology used to develop a theory of change.
• Section 3, Moving from Theory to Practice, provides a step-by-step methodology,
presenting in greater detail each of four key steps required in the process.
• Section 4, Lessons Learned and Tips, emphasizes the need to validate the theory of
change, including a quality assurance check list. It also explains how to reflect the
theory of change in different sections of the UNDAF document.
• Finally, links to helpful tools and references are provided in Section 5.
1. INTRODUCTION
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WHAT IS A THEORY OF CHANGE?
A theory of change is a method that explains how a given
intervention, or set of interventions, is expected to lead to
specific development change, drawing on a causal analysis
based on available evidence. A theory of change for the
UNDAF must be driven by sound analyses, consultation
with key stakeholders and learning on what works and
what does not in diverse contexts drawn from the
experiences of the UN and its partners. A theory of
change helps to identify solutions to effectively address
the causes of problems that hinder progress and guide
decisions on which approach should be taken, considering
UN comparative advantages, effectiveness, feasibility and
uncertainties that are part of any change process. A
theory of change also helps to identify the underlying
assumptions and risks that will be vital to understand and
revisit throughout the process to ensure the approach will
contribute to the desired change.
PURPOSE: WHY USE A THEORY OF CHANGE?
First, development challenges are complex, and are
typically caused by many factors and layers that are
embedded deeply in the way society functions. For
example, opening a legal aid clinic may not lead to more
women accessing justice services unless issues of cultural
sensitivities, needed legal reforms and childcare
constraints are addressed as well. A theory of change can
help a United Nations Country Team (UNCT)
systematically think through the many underlying and
root causes of development challenges, and how they
influence each other, when determining what an UNDAF
should address as a priority to maximize the UN’s
contribution to achieving development change.
Second, a theory of change provides a framework for
learning both within and between programming cycles. By
articulating the causes of a development challenge,
making assumptions explicit on how the proposed
strategy is expected to yield results, and testing these
assumptions against evidence—including what has worked
well, or not, in the past—the theory of change helps
ensure a sound logic for achieving change. The theory of
change also helps make course corrections if the selected
approach is not working or if anticipated risks materialize.
New learning and lessons from monitoring and evaluation
help refine assumptions and inform decisions on how an
approach should be adapted to deliver planned results.
Adjustments to the theory of change should also be made
in light of changing circumstances, especially in response
to crisis and shocks, as well as part of regular monitoring.
Third, the theory of change is increasingly being utilized
as a means for developing and managing partnerships and
partnership strategies. The process of agreeing on a
theory of change establishes different views and
assumptions among programme planners, beneficiaries,
donors, programme staff, etc. It can foster consensus and
motivate stakeholders by involving them early in the
planning process and by showing them how their work
contributes to long-term impact. It can help others to
understand and support the UN’s contribution to change,
as well as strengthen collaboration with other
organizations that aim to contribute to the same
outcomes, leading to stronger or new partnerships and
better complementarity and coordination.
Finally, a common theory of change for an UNDAF is the
basis for more effective and unified communication by the
UNCT by clearly articulating its shared vision and strategy
for how change can happen. A theory of change diagram
or short text is a neat and succinct way to summarize the
purpose of the UN’s work and communicate it to
beneficiaries, stakeholders, donors, governments and
other partners. It emphasizes real change to
counterbalance discussions focused solely on resources,
activities and outputs of different members of the UNCT.
METHODOLOGY: HOW TO DEVELOP A
THEORY OF CHANGE?
The UNDAF approach to the theory of change aims to
bring improved clarity and quality to the process of
programme design and implementation using a simple,
flexible methodology. An overarching theory of change
should be developed for the UNDAF to help explain the
outcome areas prioritized by the UN system and for
gender equality if there is no standalone outcome on it.
2. THE CONCEPT
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In addition, theories of change can be elaborated for each
outcome area as a basis for identifying and explaining the
UNDAF outputs included in the joint Results Group work
plans. This methodology recommends three key principles
and four sequenced steps for developing a theory of
change.
KEY PRINCIPLES FOR DEVELOPING A THEORY OF
CHANGE:
a) It should be developed consultatively to reflect
the understanding of all relevant stakeholders;
b) It should be grounded in, tested with, and revised
based on robust evidence at all stages; and
c) It should support continuous learning and
improvement from programme design to closure.
KEY STEPS FOR DEVELOPING A THEORY OF
CHANGE:
1. Focus on the high-level change the UN intends to
contribute to in the context of the CCA (hyperlink
to CCA CGP) and the UN Vision 2030 (hyperlink
to UN Vision 2030 CGP)
2. Identify what is needed for the desired
development change to happen, informed by the
problem tree analysis in the CCA and other
evidence, and how partners are contributing to
this change.
3. Establish and make explicit the related key
assumptions underpinning the theory of how
change happens, and major risks that may affect
it.
4. Identify partners and actors who will be most
relevant for achieving each result, taking into
account the related risks and assumptions.
While developing the theory of change, it is necessary to
validate the various steps against available evidence and
the perspectives of other stakeholders to ensure that the
analysis is sound and the key assumptions are plausible,
including assumptions about the roles that will be played
by partners and other key actors. It is also important that
the theory of change is consistent with the overall purpose
and principles of the UNDAF.
Figure 1 illustrates the four key steps for developing a
theory of change and the importance of validating each
step against available evidence. In Section 3, the four key
steps are discussed in detail, providing a step-by-step
methodology.
Figure 1: UNDAF theory of change steps
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STEP 1: FOCUS
This step is normally done as part of the UN Vision 2030
(hyperlink to UN Vision 2030 CGP) exercise and based on
evidence in the CCA (hyperlink to CCA CGP), identifying
the change needed in the five years covered by the
UNDAF.
The UN Vision 2030 provides the strategic prioritization
that defines the UN system’s primary contributions to
supporting national attainment of the SDGs, based on the
its comparative advantage and prioritizing issues that
have a direct bearing on the lives of women and girls, as
well as the most vulnerable and marginalized groups in
the country. The overall UNDAF theory of change shows
how UNDAF strategic priorities will support the country to
progress from the situation described in the CCA to the
achievement of national priorities and the SDGs as
summarized in the UN Vision 2030.
The first step in developing the UNDAF theory of change
involves selecting the key development challenges
identified in the CCA that must be addressed in the
medium term in order to achieve the SDGs. Noting
current and possible future opportunities, the priorities of
the government and of the populations concerned, and
the capacity of all actors including the UNCT, the selection
should determine the strategic priorities for UNDAF
programming based on a set of criteria, including:
• Equity: The challenges and changes selected for
further elaboration in the UNDAF theory of change
should be those that are most important if
development gains and human rights are to be
enjoyed equitably across society, and in line with
the principles of leaving no one behind and fostering
gender equality.
• Comparative advantage: Does the UN have the
mandate to address the problem and ability to
develop lasting national capacities in this area?
What are the areas where the UN can have the
greatest impact?
• Feasibility: Is it likely that the UN can work in this
area successfully?
STEP 2: CHANGE ANALYSIS
Having identified in Step 1 a small number of high-level
changes, the UNCT should identify what is needed for the
desired development changes to happen, informed by the
CCA and other evidence, including previous learning,
evaluation and what partners are already doing to
contribute to this change. This exercise should be
participatory to the extent possible, in order to develop a
shared understanding and validate the choice among
partners. It should also draw on the CCA’s analysis of
compliance with international norms and standards, and
adherence to national commitments emerging from
intergovernmental mechanisms and processes,
particularly those that relate most directly to the high-
level changes identified in Step 1.
The UNCT should start with the CCA identifying the
immediate, underlying and structural/root causes of the
high-level changes to be addressed during the UNDAF
period, such as those related to multidimensional poverty,
inequalities and discrimination, and the reasons why
particular groups are left behind. One possible approach
to this is developing a problem tree. The problem tree
can include both humanitarian and development
challenges as appropriate, which can help identify the
inter-relationships between them.
The various branches of the problem trees should identify
specific areas of work, which can be organized in
pathways linking various levels of causes (immediate,
underlying and structural) and which can show
interlinkages among each other. The problem tree can
then be used to develop a solution tree, making sure to
identify expected solutions for each level of causality
(immediate, underlying and structural) of the problem
tree, to maintain the integrity of the logical flow of
solutions to achieve the desired change. The solution tree
does not need to be an exact mirror of the problem tree.
Rather, the problem tree should be used to ensure the
causes of the development problem are addressed in the
proposed solutions. Capacity development needs and
solutions should be clearly reflected in the underlying level
of the problem and solution trees.
3. MOVING FROM THEORY
TO PRACTICE
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This analysis should include identifying the proven and potential enablers of change in the country to tackle protracted
problems and bottlenecks, and advance UN programming, building on and going beyond what was achieved in the previous
UNDAF cycle. The simplified example in Figure 2 illustrates how to turn a problem tree into a solution tree for one illustrative
branch.
Figure 2: Turning a branch of a problem tree into a solution tree
Envisaged solutions should be consistent with the criteria
identified to focus the work of the UNCT in Step 1. The
solution tree should also include how key partners are
contributing to the development change, as identified in
the funding to financing analysis. When articulating the
solutions proposed by the UN in the country context, it is
useful to demonstrate that they respond to the
parameters of:
• Equity: Are particular aspects of the solution tree
most important to address in order to ensure that
development gains and human rights are enjoyed
equitably across society to leave no one behind and
foster gender equality?
• Comparative advantage: Which specific areas of
the solution tree does the UN have the mandate and
abilities to address? Are other partners already
working to deliver some of the changes identified as
needed steps within the solution tree? How does the
UN’s offer fit with those of other partners in jointly
contributing to the desired higher level change?
• Feasibility: Is it likely that the UN can implement
the solution successfully? Considerations may
include available resources, likelihood of
partnerships necessary to realize the intended
change, key risks relating to political, cultural or
operational factors, and whether these can be
effectively managed.
• What works and what does not work well:
What is the evidence, based on UN and other
previous experiences, on the scale of change that
has been achieved with this type of solution, in
similar contexts? Have there been situations where
this type of solution has not worked well? Can we
learn from past mistakes to deploy better solutions?
UNDAF mid-term reviews and evaluations are
particularly useful sources of evidence.
Figure 3 illustrates a simplified solution tree. The tree shows the high-level outcomes that are necessary to achieve the
ultimate objective of reduced inequalities for women, the disabled and indigenous groups. The evidence shows us that these
high-level outcomes are best achieved by a set of output level results working together. While this entire diagram may
represent all of the changes that need to take place in order for the objective to be achieved, the UNCT may only prioritize
certain areas in the UNDAF on the understanding that other elements will be addressed by other partners and/or are not
feasible for the UNCT to address during this period. In the below example, the UNCT has opted to focus on areas in light
Problem
Persistent poverty and
high levels of
exclusion
Reduced poverty,
inequality and exclusion
Increased average
income of vulnerable
households
Lack of steady,
adequate income
Low coverage,
relevance and quality
of employment
services
Reformed social
structures prioritize
equality and basic rights
Increased access to
quality employment
services for vulnerable
households
Feudal social structures
Solution
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blue, as the areas in orange and green will be adequately addressed by the international financial institutions and private
sector. The UNCT will still monitor progress of the entire solution tree, however, because failure to achieve results in an area
where other partners work will most likely hinder the achievement of the ultimate objective.
Figure 3: A simplified solution tree
The cause and effect relationship between the different
results can be represented in graphic form through arrows
and lines demonstrating relationships horizontally in
addition to vertically. The UNCT should review the
envisaged UNDAF results and development changes to
ensure that they focus on the four UNDAF programming
principles, in particular the overarching principle of leaving
no one behind. Specifically, before moving on to define
assumptions and risks, this should involve a review to
ascertain the following:
1. The theory of change must clearly be targeted
towards changes and solutions that benefit the most
vulnerable and marginalized individuals and groups
in society.
2. The theory of change should directly address issues
of inequality and discrimination, building on the CCA
to construct a model of change that tackles
underlying and possibly root causes, not just the
immediate ones.
3. The theory of change should be explicit in
identifying solutions that target the needs of women
and girls, and ensure that they are equally
benefitting from the envisaged change.
4. The theory of change should envisage sustainable
and inclusive changes by looking to strengthen the
effectiveness of institutions and mechanisms that
are targeted to monitor, track and empower those
who are left behind, or at the risk of being left
behind.
STEP 3: MAKE ASSUMPTIONS AND RISKS
EXPLICIT
Establish and make explicit the related key assumptions
underpinning the theory of how change happens and
major risks that may affect it. This includes identifying
why solutions are the key drivers of change in a given
context, and the factors that may influence these drivers.
Assumptions are things taken for granted, accepted as
certain to happen. It is particularly important that the
assumptions underpinning the proposed causal
relationship between different results and other factors be
made explicit (if X, then Y, because Z) and are assessed
against available evidence. Assumptions to be considered
include, for example, those about:
• Causality: What leads to what, and how? Through
what mechanism(s)? This includes how the
proposed solutions contribute to the intended high-
level development change.
Reduced inequalities for women,
the disabled and indigenous groups
Improved income
of targeted groups
Build and repair bridges
and roadways to connect
communities to markets
Support traveling
midwifery training
Provide cash transfer to
working mothers to
support child care
Improved vocationaltraining
offer in targeted rural areas
to enhance access to higher
paying emplyment
Introduce free annual
check-ups to all children
enrolled in government
schools in prioity districts
Improved access to justice
services for women and
minority groups
End discriminatory laws,
policies and institutional
practices to ensure
equal inheritance and
workplace rights
New television series and
movies that promote
positive images of women
and minority groups
Improved health
of targeted groups
Improved social attitudes
towards women, the disabled
and indigenous groups
Improved protection for
women and minority
groups under the law
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• Implementation: Assumptions about how UNCT
interventions should be designed and targeted in
order to deliver the intended results for the
intended target groups.
• External factors: Assumptions about the influence
of issues outside the area of work that can facilitate
or hinder the expected change.
For each assumption the UNCT identifies in the theory of
change, it should consider:
• Does this fully explain what is thought will
happen? If not, it may be necessary to refine the
assumption or the identified solution, or add new
assumptions to explain the expected change
process fully.
• Is the assumption plausible? Do the available
evidence and the views and experience of UN and
other stakeholders indicate that this assumption is
likely to hold true in practice?
• Does the assumption need to be tested? Is
further evidence needed as to whether change
happens in the way assumed in this context, e.g.,
with an evaluation or by monitoring this closely
during implementation?
Embedding risk analysis in a theory of change is also a
crucial and challenging element of design, but exploring
assumptions first can help in the identification of the risks.
Often assumptions and risks are inversely related. For
example, if it is assumed that employment services must
be targeted towards vulnerable households in order to
contribute towards reducing poverty, we might define a
risk around the possibility that employment services are
not properly targeted to reach vulnerable households. A
theory of change approach encourages consideration of
various types of potential risks, including:
• Environmental and political: Political risks from
larger developments in the country such as
elections and stakeholder sensitivities around
particular issues and programmatic areas; high
levels of turnover in policy and mid-level positions
in government; disaster risk, changes in national
policies or sharp fluctuations in commodity prices.
• Opportunities: Is the UNCT positioned to take
advantage of future opportunities that may
positively impact the achievement of results?
• Design: Difficulties might exist in targeting new
and/or prioritizing specific groups and locations,
such as the lack of data or access; there may be
questions around the ability to retain flexibility to
rethink approaches and strategies when presented
with new data from monitoring or external sources.
• Partnerships: Possible conflicts or tensions among
the perspectives, interests and demands of
partners; ability to incorporate new partnerships
when opportunities arise.
During the preparation of a theory of change, it is not
always possible to anticipate and prepare for the full
range of risks. But it is essential to isolate the most
important ones so that when certain risks materialize, the
UNCT can revise assumptions and adapt the theory of
change and the related strategy. Identifying relevant risks
at the start of the UNDAF also helps design suitable
strategies that can help manage those risks, so that the
UNCT is better able to take advantage of new
opportunities and mitigate threats.
STEP 4: IDENTIFY PARTNERS AND KEY
ACTORS
Identify partners and actors by revisiting each result,
including the related risks and assumptions. Focus in
particular on key actors likely to have a direct role in
determining the success or failure of the change effort,
and partners with whom the UNCT will work most directly
to bring about change. For instance, contributions from
other partners as identified in the funding to financing
analysis should be reflected in the overall solution tree,
even if these are not something the UNCT will work on
directly. This helps to identify the key linkages and
enablers for achieving the SDGs.
The UNCT should identify specific members able to work
on different results based on their mandates, capacity and
available resources. The theory of change should help
clarify which UN entity does what, in which areas two or
more entities are expected to work together, where
collaboration is necessary to achieve the expected
change, and how to avoid overlapping to maximize the
use of available resources.
Following this, it should be evident if there are elements
of the proposed theory of change that are vital to the
success of all or part of the UNDAF, but which the UN is
not able to address directly through its programming
work. These elements of the theory of change may not
appear directly in the UNDAF results framework, but they
need to be recognized as factors that can affect the
achievement of the UNDAF results. The UNCT may also
identify opportunities to address them through other
engagement strategies in the UNDAF, such as through
awareness-raising and advocacy, in order to leverage the
resources and capacities of non-UN partners (including
civil society and the private sector).
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VALIDATE AND QUALITY ASSURE THE
THEORY OF CHANGE
Validating the theory of change against available
evidence and the perspectives of other stakeholders
ensures that the key assumptions are plausible,
including assumptions about the roles that will be played
by partners and other key actors. It also assures the
quality of the theory of change so that it meets the
required standards and is consistent with the overall
purpose and principles of the UNDAF.
The UNCT should work on validating and quality assuring
the theory of change throughout the four steps
described in detail in the previous section:
1. Validating the focus of the theory of change
requires due consideration of available evidence
on national development priorities, identification of
the needs of the poorest and marginalized, and
the UNCT comparative advantage. It also requires
consultations with key stakeholders, including
government, civil society, direct beneficiaries,
academia and international development actors, to
ensure all perspectives are taken into
consideration.
2. The solutions identified in the theory of change
should be validated with available evidence
against the UNCT comparative advantages, to
determine what worked or did not work in the
past, including how results can be more efficiently
and effectively achieved, as well as potential risks
and expected sustainability of the proposed
solutions.
3. It is vitally important that the assumptions are
tested against available evidence and are
discussed with relevant stakeholders to ensure
they are plausible and accurately capture the
expected change process.
4. Both the division of labour among UN entities and
partnership strategies need to be validated
based on prior learning, through the engagement
of key stakeholders, and ensuring consistency
with the funding to financing analysis.
The decision on which external actors to engage in the
validation step should be undertaken by the UNCT based
on the local context, ensuring as much as possible that
the voices and views of women, youth, duty-bearers,
claim-holders and vulnerable communities are sought
and heard. Similarly, the format and process for
validating the different steps of the theory of change
should be agreed by the UNCT based on what fits best
with the local situation and circumstances.
4. LESSONS LEARNED
AND TIPS
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QUALITY ASSURANCE CHECKLIST TO ENSURE A THEORY OF CHANGE:
!
Is based on a collaborative and participatory process, involving multiple stakeholder perspectives and
allowing the views of women, youth, duty-bearers, claim-holders and vulnerable communities to be reflected
during theory of change development and validation
!
Is clearly targeted towards changes that will benefit the most vulnerable and marginalized individuals and
groups in society
!
Addresses issues of inequality and discrimination by tackling root and underlying causes in addition to
immediate causes
!
Explicitly targets women and girls and ensures that they are equal beneficiaries of change
!
Identifies specific development changes to be realized for women and other targeted groups, rather than
relying on assumptions about how particular groups benefit
!
Envisages sustainable and inclusive changes by looking to strengthen the effectiveness of institutions and
mechanisms that are tasked to monitor, track and empower those who are left behind or at the risk of being
left behind
!
Contributes to resilience and reductions in potential shocks and stresses, including those caused by the effects
of climate change, epidemics, natural hazards
1
and conflict
!
Addresses poverty-environment linkages and contributes to enhancing sustainability
!
Addresses or mitigates structural causes of violence that lead to or result from violation or non-fulfilment of
rights
!
Refers to evidence, knowledge and lessons learned from credible sources such as evaluations, analysis,
monitoring and UN strategies/guidance, as well as to national capacity assessments and strategies
!
Clearly states assumptions and risks most relevant to whether change will be realized
!
Identifies who does what within the UNCT, as well as the key partners and actors whose common effort will
be required in order for change to take place
!
Shows a plausible, clear, logical flow to describe how the planned intervention intends to contribute to the
desired development change, without any leaps of faith or gaps in logic
!
Is ideally presented with a diagram and embedded in the narrative of programme documents
!
Identifies limitations in the available evidence basis for the theory of change that can be used to inform
evaluation priorities and design
!
Is based on a collaborative and participatory process, involving multiple stakeholder perspectives and
allowing the views of women, youth, duty-bearers, claim-holders and vulnerable communities to be reflected
during theory of change development and validation
!
Is clearly targeted towards changes that will benefit the most vulnerable and marginalized individuals and
groups in society
____________________________
1
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 applies to the risk of small-scale and large-scale, frequent and infrequent,
sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or man-made hazards as well as related environmental, technological and biological
hazards and risks.
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APPLYING A THEORY OF CHANGE TO THE UNDAF PROCESS
A theory of change is not an add-on to the UNDAF; it helps guide the development of programme strategies through the
UNCT thinking together about the causes of development challenges and selecting the right strategy based on evidence,
learning and deliberate consideration of assumptions and risks. The CCA should provide much of the causal, partnership,
resource and contextual risk analysis that will be used to develop a theory of change. The theory of change should be
reflected in the UNDAF narrative and results matrix, including in the selection of outcomes, indicators to measure progress,
risks and assumptions, and partnerships necessary to achieve results. The table below summarizes how the various elements
of the theory of change can be used to develop the UNDAF narrative.
USING A THEORY OF CHANGE FOR DIFFERENT SECTIONS OF THE UNDAF
1.
Signature page
2.
Executive summary
3.
A narrative summary of the UNDAF strategic priority areas
• Explain the key causal factors contributing to the core development challenges, with a focus on those that
will be addressed in the UNDAF, and explain how the causal analysis translates into the identified outcome
areas and development solutions.
• Specify how women and marginalized groups are affected differently by the development challenge, and if
there are causes that are unique to these groups, requiring specific solutions.
• Support this with references to evidence and its sources, including from evaluation.
4.
Risks and assumptions
• Explain why the programme priorities were chosen to best address the core development challenge,
referring to key assumptions about how change will happen.
• Explain the UNCT comparative advantage based on previous learning, what others are doing and what the
team can do together with others.
• Make sure risks derived from theories of change are properly taken into consideration and include
relevant management and mitigation measures: what if societal and development dynamics do not work
as assumed or circumstances change?
• Support this with past evaluation findings and recommendations.
5.
Initiatives outside the results matrix
• Use the problem and solution analysis to explain how those initiatives are crucial to achieve the results
captured in the results matrix, and how the UN will engage with partners to ensure collaboration and
complementarities towards the achievement of the SDGs.
6.
Overall financing strategy and estimated resource requirements
7.
Implementation arrangements
• Use the analysis of who does what from Step 4 to ensure implementation arrangements clearly specify
roles and responsibilities within the UNCT, highlighting coordination arrangements where necessary.
8.
Monitoring and evaluation provisions
• Are there specific assumptions related to causality or relationships with other contextual factors that
require more evidence and testing?
• Ensure that key elements of the theory of change will be monitored and updated regularly as appropriate.
• Evaluation should look at the validity of the theory of change and provide recommendations for its
improvement and for future interventions.
9.
Communication of results
• Use the causal analysis agreed among partners and stakeholders to strengthen messages on the desired
change, its relevance in the national context and the role of the UN.
10.
UNDAF results matrix
• The selected outcomes should relate clearly to the high-level development changes and UNCT
contributions discussed in the narrative.
• The indicators should measure the development changes articulated in the theory of change, including for
women and targeted marginalized groups.
11.
Legal clauses (Link to Legal Annex)
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UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE
Outcome-level theories of change that lead to the
identification of outputs developed in UNDAF Results
Groups should be linked to the overall UNDAF theory of
change, in addition to any agency-specific theories of
change that may be developed. These should be
preserved as annexes to Results Group work plans, to be
validated as part of regular monitoring and adjusted as
needed. During implementation, information from
monitoring can be related back to the theory of change to
inform management decisions to ensure interventions and
activities are adjusted to remain relevant and increase the
likelihood of achieving change. Evaluation can be crucial
during implementation or closure for validating theories of
change and learning what works and what does not work
well in different contexts. In fact, one purpose of a theory
of change is to have a basis on which to support future
evaluations. A theory of change contributes to ensuring
that the UNDAF is evaluable.
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UNDAF COMPANION GUIDANCE: THEORY OF CHANGE
Craig Valters, 2014, Theories of Change in International
Development: Communication, Learning, or
Accountability?
NPC’s Practical Guide, 2014, NPC
(Harries/Hodgson/Noble).
Danielle Stein and Craig Valters, 2012, Understanding
Theory of Change in International Development, JSPR and
the Asia Foundation.
Isabel Vogel for the UK Department of International
Development, 2012, Review of the use of ‘Theory of
Change’ in international development.
Patricia Rogers, 2014, Theory of Change, Methodological
Briefs—Impact Evaluation No. 2, UNICEF Office of
Research, Florence.
Grantcraft, 2006, Mapping Change Using a Theory of
Change to Guide Planning and Evaluation.
May Miller-Dawkins, 2014, 9 Ways to Change the World?
CoreLab.
The Evaluation Exchange, 2005, “An Introduction to
Theory of Change.”
Uri Alon at TEDx Lausanne, “We have to change the
culture of science to do better research.”
Center for Theory of Change
5. TOOLS AND RESOURCES
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TITLE OF PUBLICATION
The United Nations Development Group (UNDG) unites
the 31 UN funds, programmes, specialized agencies,
departments, and offices that play a role in development.
Since 2008, the UNDG has been one of the three pillars
of the UN System Chief Executives Board for Coordination,
the highest-level coordination forum of the United
Nations system.
At the regional level, six Regional UNDG Teams play
a critical role in driving UNDG priorities by supporting UN
Country Teams with strategic priority setting,
analysis and advice.
At the country level, 131 UN Country Teams serving 165
countries and territories work together to increase the
synergies and joint impact of the UN system.
The Development Operations Coordination Office (DOCO) is
the secretariat of the UNDG, bringing together the
UN development system to promote change and innovation
to deliver together on sustainable development.
@UNDGDOCO WWW.UNDG.ORG