by DOPPLER radar within two separate thunderstorms over the county. This warning was quickly
followed by a TOR for adjacent western Orange County at
1137 PM as the southern storm intensified and
was approaching the county line near the city of Winter Garden. A supporting SVS
(1146 PM) listed the
cities in immediate path of the approaching tornadic storm, and also alerted residents in the next
county downstream (Seminole) of the imminent TOR for their county. At 1150 PM, an amateur
radio operator reported a
"tornado on the ground" in Winter Garden. This information was
disseminated immediately in a concise
SVS which notified Ocoee and Apopka residents to take cover at
once. A TOR was issued for Seminole County at
1156 PM, which included the report from Winter Garden
in order to invoke swift public reaction. Once again, several calls were made to Seminole County to
inform EM personnel of the danger. A NOW at
1205 AM updated the east central Florida short term
weather picture, followed by an SVS at
1211 AM which summarized the coincident warnings in effect
while urging Lake Mary and Sanford residents to "...act now to protect their lives!". Soon after,
numerous reports of significant damage from Orange and Seminole counties were relayed to MLB
via amateur radio and Skywarn spotters, television news, and county EM's. By morning it would
be concluded that three people would die from the Winter Garden tornado and another thirteen would
be killed from the Sanford tornado.
Even with several warnings in effect, more warnings were quick to follow: a third TOR (1214 AM)
for Volusia county was followed by a TOR for Osceola County at
1222 AM. The most devastating
killer tornado of the event touched down in Osceola County at 1240 AM just southwest of Kissimmee.
This area is known to have a high population of tourists as well as numerous RV parks. The
Kissimmee tornado was preceded by the 1222 AM TOR and the
1237 AM SVS both placing the town
directly in the tornado's path. The Doppler radar depiction of the tornadic thunderstorm is seen
here.
More people were killed from this single tornado (25) than were killed in any previous Florida
outbreak. Many were killed in the
Ponderosa RV Park.
Continuing throughout the remainder of the morning, numerous reports of damage and casualties
from tornado touchdowns were called into the NWS office from each impacted county. The information
was placed in subsequent TORs which were issued for Orange (
1240 AM, 119 AM), Osceola (119 AM,
304 AM) and Brevard Counties (123 AM, 227 AM, and 316 AM) for other tornadic storms which went on
to produce considerable damage in unpopulated rural areas. However, notable structural damage was
reported southwest of Edgewater, near Titusville, and at Port Canaveral.
Throughout the event, the operations team issued accurate, timely short-fuse weather products in a
rapidly evolving situation, with tornadic storms moving as fast as 50 to 60 MPH at times. All seven
tornadoes were preceded by Tornado Warnings (TOR) with
positive lead times. Statistically, the
official assessment team found MLB's performance to be "excellent" (pdf version). The Probability
of Detection (POD) was found to be an impressive 100 percent while the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) was
only 31 percent. Lead times before fatalities in each of the four counties which experienced killer
tornadoes was 23 minutes while the average lead time for all tornadoes in all counties was 15 minutes.
Both of these statistics are well-above the national average. Between 830 PM Sunday evening and 420
AM Monday morning, a total of
52 event-related short-fuse weather products were issued, an average of
about one product every nine minutes over an eight hour period, including TORs,
FFWs, SVSs,
NOWs, Special Marine Warnings
(SMW) Flood Statements (FFS), Local Airport Advisories (LAA)
and Local Storm Reports (LSR). Of unique interest was the
1045 PM Local Airport Advisory for the
Daytona Beach International Airport (DAB) which stressed that a severe storm with a possible tornado
would pass very near the airport facility.
A final commentary worthy of documentation was that during the event MLB was engaged in a
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/research.html