192
R. M.
SHIFFRIN
AND R. C.
ATKINSON
CONCLUSIONS
The
theory outlined here
is
descriptive;
we
have attempted
to
present
a
theory
of
memory
in
fairly
general terms
and to
dem-
onstrate
for
certain commonly studied varia-
bles
how the
theory
can be
applied.
It is
beyond
the
scope
of
this paper
to
present
specific
quantitative models
that
follow
from
the
general theory
and
apply them
to
data,
but
such models have been
set
forth
elsewhere
and
applied
successfully:
in
continuous
paired-associate learning experiments where
the
variables examined included
the
number
of
intervening items, rankings
of
responses,
second-guessing,
proactive interference
ef-
fects,
intrusions,
and
latencies
(Shiffrin,
1968);
in
free-verbal recall where
the
varia-
bles
examined included list length
and
presentation time (Atkinson
&
Shiffrin,
1968a)
; and in
paired-associate memory
tasks where
the
variables include list length,
confidence
ratings,
and
response times (At-
kinson
&
Shiffrin,
1965;
Phillips,
Shiffrin,
&
Atkinson,
1967).
Despite these successes,
we
wish
to
emphasize
that
the
theory
is
still
in
an
early formative stage,
and
awaits appli-
cation
to a
wider range
of
problems.
For
example,
it is not yet
known whether
the
theory
can be
extended
in an
elegant
way to
account quantitatively
for the
interference
phenomena
observed
in a
typical list-struc-
tured task. Whatever
the
fate
of
such appli-
cations,
the
present theory serves
the
purpose
of
providing
a
general framework within
which
many
of the
specific
quantitative mod-
els
known
to the
authors
may be
placed,
including
all of our own
work.
In
addition,
we
hope that this report
will
lead
to a
more
detailed
consideration
of
memory input
and
output mechanisms, especially
the
memory-
search process.
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