issue no. 75 march 2003 <
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price ratio of one in Figure 1, which describes the
investor’s holdings (and purchase) of equity when the
investor is not restricted by existing capital gains.
10,11
The conventional advice on asset allocation is that an
investor should reduce his equity exposure as he
ages. In fact, some mutual fund organizations even
promote the heuristic rule that an investor’s percent-
age exposure to equity should be 100 – A, where A is
the investor’s age (in years). The underlying focus of
this perspective concerns the shortening horizon
over which the investor will utilize his funds as he
ages and the absence of nonfinancial income during
the retirement years as well as the declining value of
his human capital wealth over time during the work-
ing years.
It is not apparent that models of risk bearing without
taxes and other frictions should lead to strong age
effects about portfolio composition during the retire-
ment years. While the investor’s age and the strength
of his bequest motive will significantly influence the
investor’s consumption decision (i.e., the shape of his
consumption path over time), the effect of age on the
allocation decision will not be pronounced as long as
the investor’s risk aversion stays constant over time.
12
Of course, if the investor becomes more risk averse as
he ages, then the relative demand for the risky assets
would decline with the investor’s age. Yet, many
investors with substantial wealth view themselves as
managing their funds at the margin for the benefit of
their heirs, emphasizing both that risk aversion would
not increase as they age as well as the importance of
managing the capital gains tax liability efficiently.
13
Even if the investor does not have a strong bequest
motive, the investor can still find it attractive to borrow
to help finance consumption in his latter years in
order to defer some of the capital gains liability until it
is eliminated at death (repaying the indebtedness
through his estate). More generally, our analysis high-
lights the value to the investor of borrowing in his
latter years to obtain liquidity, while deferring the real-
ization of substantial appreciated positions until the
investor’s death. While our analysis so far abstracts
from the stochastic structure of labor income, this
simplification does not affect behavior during the
investor’s retirement years, i.e., after he has ceased
earning significant labor income.
The Size of the Gain and Portfolio
Rebalancing
Our solutions illustrate the important role of the size of
the existing capital gain for the investor’s portfolio
rebalancing decision. If the investor is overexposed to
equity, the investor will trade off the tax cost of selling
some equity with the diversification benefit of the
reduced exposure to the risky asset. The smaller the
size of the gain, the smaller the tax costs of scaling back
the equity exposure by a given amount. Consequently,
when the size of the gain is small, the investor opti-
mizes this trade-off by scaling back equity holding to a
greater degree and getting closer to the unconstrained
optimal exposure.
14
Analogously, it will also be optimal
for the investor to scale back the exposure to a greater
degree when the capital gains tax rate is particularly
low. In contrast, when the size of the gain is very large
(or the tax basis is very small), the investor may just
scale back slightly or even retain the entire exposure
(the investor acts as “locked in” and does not sell his
position due to the tax cost of selling despite the risk-
sharing benefits from reducing the equity exposure).
For a given size capital gain (i.e., fixing the basis-price
ratio), the marginal cost to the investor of being over-
exposed to equity increases in the difference between
the size of his position and the optimal position, while
the marginal tax cost of rebalancing is constant in the
position’s size. Consequently, once the investor is
substantially overexposed to equity, the trade-off he
faces with capital gains taxes pushes him to the same
exposure, i.e., the portfolio will not depend upon his
previous holding of equity, though it depends upon
the size of the investor’s gain and age.
Many of these features are illustrated in Figure 2, which
depicts the optimal stock holding at age 30 for our base-
case parameters as a function of the initial proportion
of equity in the portfolio for several different values of
the basis-price ratio. The figure illustrates that the size
of the investor’s optimal equity holding increases with
the fraction of beginning-of-period wealth invested in
equity until the investor reaches his maximum expo-
sure for each basis-price ratio. The optimal equity
proportion also increases with the size of the gain (or
lower basis-price ratio) in the figure as the investor
scales back his exposure relatively less as the gain rises.