Nordic Development Fund
Results Management
Framework (RMF) −
Policy
Adopted by the Board of Directors
on 13 October 2021
In force as of 18 October 2021
2
Contents
1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 4
2 Rationale .............................................................................................................................................. 4
3 Process for developing the RMF .......................................................................................................... 5
Step 1: Development of the NDF Theory of Change ........................................................................... 5
Step 2: Selection of NDF aggregate results and process indicators.................................................... 7
4 Scope and structure of RMF................................................................................................................. 8
5 RMF Timeframe, baseline, and target-setting ................................................................................... 11
6 Use of RMF ......................................................................................................................................... 12
7 Commitments..................................................................................................................................... 12
8 Governance and accountability ......................................................................................................... 13
Annex 1: Definitions .............................................................................................................................. 14
Annex 2: NDF Theory of Change ........................................................................................................... 15
3
Responsible Department
Quality Assurance and Reporting
Document version history and review dates
Document name
Adopted by
Adopted on
Entry into force
as of
Information
Classification
Results
Management
Framework − Policy
NDF Board of
Directors
13 October 2021
18 October 2021
Public
Related documents
RMF Indicator framework and RMF indicator technical notes − Guidelines
4
1 Introduction
The purpose of the Nordic Development Fund (NDF or Fund) is to advance Nordic leadership in
addressing climate change and development challenges through financing, knowledge and
partnerships while contributing towards the delivery of the 2030 Agenda and commitments in the
Paris Agreement. Together with strategic partners, NDF develops, launches, and scales projects to
support developing countries and the most vulnerable people affected by climate change.
NDF recognises the importance of results-based management in delivering on its purpose. The NDF
Results Management Framework (RMF) consists of a Policy and Guidelines in accordance with NDF’s
defined document categories (the Policy and the Guidelines are collectively referred to as the RMF).
The RMF facilitates results-based management, learning and performance improvement. It provides
the basis for results and evidence-based monitoring and reporting on NDF’s operational and
organisational performance, and communication with NDF stakeholders and partners about
progress and achievement of expected results.
The RMF is aligned with NDF’s purpose, as well as with the Statutes of NDF, according to which NDF
was established as an organisation to promote economic and social development. The RMF is
informed by Strategy 2025 (Strategy)
1
and supports its implementation. The RMF design builds on
existing policies and frameworks and the selection and design of the most suitable indicators to
track the main activities and measure the aggregate project level results in the NDF’s Theory of
Change (ToC).
The timeframe for assessing performance in RMF is aligned with the Strategy period to enhance
comparability over time and allowing more time to observe changes in performance. The NDF
annual result reporting based on the indicator framework will serve as a key platform for analysing
performance trends, identifying underlying issues, and reflecting agreed actions with stakeholders,
such as the NDF Board, and strategic partners. The findings will inform NDF’s operational directions
and resource planning.
NDF keeps its RMF flexible and sees it as an ‘emergent’ process, adaptable and reflective of changing
contexts to allow for adaptive management that entails refinements based on lessons learned and to
accommodate for revisions in the indicator framework in the future.
This Policy provides an overview on the process that led to the development of the RMF, its scope
and structure as well as its use. The RMF indicator framework and the RMF indicator technical notes
serve as operational documents and are considered as Guidelines for this Policy.
2 Rationale
A comprehensive evaluation
2
of NDF, conducted in 2019, identified the need for strengthening
efforts in corporate results monitoring, evaluation, and learning. In April 2020, NDF launched its
Strategy and successfully obtained a capital increase. These developments called for a corporate-
level Results Management Framework (RMF) to facilitate the assessment of NDF’s operational and
organisational performance in implementing the commitments articulated in the Strategy and the
overall purpose and mandate. Based on these requirements and recommendations, NDF embarked
on strengthening the results-based management (RBM) functions and developing the critically
needed RMF.
1
NDF Strategy 2025 (2020)
2
NDF Evaluation 2019
5
In June 2020, the department for Quality Assurance and Reporting (QAR) was established, where the
oversight and advisory functions of NDF’s corporate results management, including planning,
monitoring, evaluation, and learning are placed.
3 Process for developing the RMF
During the development of the RMF, the guiding principle was to ground the work on existing
frameworks and in a participatory process for the product to be “owned” by the people who would
use it the most. An internal RMF working group was formed to allow for the design to be embedded
in the strategic and policy context, existing diverse portfolio of projects as well as knowledge and
learning. The development of the Policy and the Guidelines was to some extent done in parallel.
The RMF design work is based on an in-depth NDF project portfolio analysis, review of policy and
operational documents, as well as benchmarking with the industry standards and best practices. It
builds on the key priorities and objectives of the Strategy that focus on the nexus between climate
change and development in lower-income countries and countries in fragile situations. Likewise, the
work is grounded on existing NDF policies and frameworks.
Considerable efforts also went into holding internal and external consultation rounds, including with
the NDF Board, as well as in engaging with the entire NDF staff around the design work of the RMF
to build consensus and ownership around it.
Step 1: Development of the NDF Theory of Change
The first step for developing the RMF is the design of NDF Theory of Change. NDF RMF derives from
a logical pathways approach used in the Theory of Change (ToC). It uses a results chain logic to
describe the inputs and activities undertaken to attain first level of results (outputs) and to
contribute to the intended higher-level results: outcomes and impacts. ToC logic is further
elaborated in a RMF where the progress towards each level of results will be assessed by results
indicators and the supplementary information requirements. Process indicators are used to assess
the delivery of activity and input levels of the ToC.
The NDF ToC
3
follows a logical flow of a results chain; starting from the bottom with the strategic
activities and all the way up, where the contribution to the longer-term impacts is described. It
forms an integral part of this Policy.
The ToC captures NDF’s diverse and broad portfolio of projects. It comprises the current project
portfolio and is geared towards accommodating the future NDF funded projects.
Assumptions (risks
4
turned into positives) and drivers (factors that NDF-funded projects can
influence) that complement the results chain logic are also illustrated in the annexed simplified ToC.
Assumptions and drivers will be monitored as part of the RMF.
Strategic activities
Strategic activities describe the main NDF processes and activities, as outlined in the Strategy, that
NDF will undertake to fulfil its purpose and enable the portfolio of projects to deliver on the
intended results. The support to the organisational development is not explicitly articulated in the
Strategy; however, this area of work complements implementing the identified strategic activities.
3
See Annex 2
4
Risks pertaining to both internal and external factors are further elaborated in the Risk Management
Framework.
6
The metrics around this work will focus on delivery of the targets set in the Strategy along with
assessing NDF commitments in creating a conducive environment for work to thrive.
Aggregate outputs
At the output level are the identified aggregate products and services delivered by the portfolio of
projects to the intended beneficiaries. This type of clustering of results areas came about from
identifying groups of synergistic projects contributing to a common outcome. Three bigger outcome
areas were identified from the current portfolio of projects. From these, the intervention logic was
worked to identify the specific aggregate outputs for each outcome area.
It is important to note that in the NDF ToC, the outputs are viewed from the perspective of the
intended beneficiary or user of the output rather than the provider to increase the likelihood of
realisation of outcome level result. The level of results ambition is thus greater than assessing the
delivery of products and services (i.e., deliverables).
At the aggregate output level, the portfolio of projects shows attribution to the results and project
implementation can directly influence the progress. Moreover, outputs are designed to empower
women and girls as agents of change to increase gender equality and to support vulnerable groups
as per the “leave no one behind” principle.
5
In addition, the enabling outputs are types of support that aggregate some of the additional outputs
that are slightly lower in the results hierarchy, partly subsumed in the broader aggregate outputs
and are common to each immediate outcome area. These are considered strategic for NDF to
monitor and thus have been purposefully elevated as separate outputs, e.g., additional climate
finance mobilised, full-time (equivalent) jobs created/supported, increased capacity development and
awareness.
Immediate Outcomes
At the level of immediate outcomes, the focus is on the uptake/adoption/application of the products
and services that the NDF-funded projects deliver to the intended beneficiaries. At this level, the
shift from the results attribution turns into contribution. This means that the success of the results is
increasingly a collective one and influenced by other actors and factors that should be acknowledged
(assumptions).
To ensure that the focus of development results remains centred on improving lives of people,
especially the most vulnerable, e.g., women and girls, most of the outcome-level metrics will focus
on qualitative measures on individuals (both women and men, including aspects related to
inclusiveness and vulnerability) benefiting from NDF-funded support.
End of Project Outcomes
The end of project outcome (or the short-term impacts) level assesses how NDF’s portfolio of
projects contribute to these higher-level results and, more specifically,
what is the likelihood of
realisation of the impact at an individual level on reduced poverty and increased resilience,
adaptability to climate change as well as the overall aggregate climate change mitigation efforts.
5
RMF indicator technical notes provide guidance on mainstreaming gender equality and vulnerable groups in
the results.
7
Impact
On the top of the results chain are the expected longer-term impact areas. These are the long-term
results that NDF´s support ultimately contributes towards, as articulated in the Strategy. It also
reflects NDF’s commitments on the 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and more broadly on the global
development policy space and sets the backdrop for NDF operations while enabling us to tie the
results narrative to country/region/country cluster-specific development context.
As per the best practice
6
, annual revisions of ToC should take place so that it is seen as an
‘emergent’ process, adaptable and more reflective of changing contexts, rather than being written at
the outset and seldom returned to.
Step 2: Selection of NDF aggregate results and process indicators
A set of criteria to select and design the most suitable indicators to track the main activities in the
ToC and measure the aggregate project level results is used. The actual indicators together with the
technical notes are part of the Guidelines.
The following criteria apply:
a) Indicators consistent with institutional documents – NDF Strategy, policies, and guidelines:
As a foundational principle, the aim is to build on existing frameworks and select indicators focused
on NDF priorities to fulfil the primary purpose of guiding actions to improve performance. The
indicators should be fully aligned with the Strategy and corporate decision-making.
b) Indicators broad enough to capture a significant portion of the current portfolio and the expected
pipeline of projects prioritised:
To achieve this aim, the proposed indicators use units of measurement and comprehensive
disaggregation that are common across different sectors and types of projects.
c) Data availability, cost-efficiency and SMART
7
indicator principle:
All the selected indicators
8
were analysed on their applicability, SMART principle, and cost-
effectiveness in terms of data availability and collection by developing per indicator a rigorous
methodology including clear definitions, rationale and reliable data sources that are described in the
RMF indicator technical notes.
d) Integration of the SDG indicators (either direct use or proxy):
Together, the indicators in the RMF Levels
9
1-4 cover all 17 SDGs, disaggregating the data as needed
(e.g., by female and male, age, disability, rural and urban), to provide a more complete and nuanced
narrative on the NDF’s contribution on country/regional progress towards the SDGs.
6
See e.g., Better Evaluation.
7
Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant and Time-bound.
8
The RMF, however, includes a few provisional indicators that are strategic but currently lack definitions and
robust data collection methods (indicated as TBD in the Guidelines).
9
See chapter 4. Scope and Structure of RMF.
8
Direct use: The RMF makes direct use of official SDG indicators wherever possible. This approach is
applied especially in the higher results levels (e.g., impact).
Proxy: Indicators are considered proxies if they relate to overall SDG objectives but do not expressly
relate to an official SDG indicator formulation.
Adapted from Asian Development Bank
e) Harmonisation among partners with broad-based relevance to NDF stakeholders:
The RMF indicators are harmonised as much as possible with those of Multilateral Development
banks (MDBs), UNSDG
, development partners, international and development finance institutions
(IFIs and DFIs). At the same time, NDF remains mindful of the value of innovation and recognises
that the RMF is primarily a tool to manage strategies and challenges that are specific to NDF.
f) Fewer but more strategic set of indicators:
While the challenge is that the RMF should cover the largest possible portion of the portfolio with
the smallest number of indicators, NDF has streamlined its approach by selecting in the RMF a
manageable number of strategic, high-level indicators to aggregate results across varied types of
projects using a single indicator.
g) Indicators focus on measuring the change at the beneficiary level:
To ensure that the focus of development results remains centred on improving lives of people,
especially the vulnerable, women and girls, as the end beneficiaries of the projects; the emphasis will
be placed on qualitative and quantitative outcome level indicators: immediate and end of project
outcomes will be measured by the benefit of use, uptake or application of outputs by the intended
beneficiaries (contribution), rather than delivery of outputs to the intended beneficiaries (
attribution). End of project outcome indicators assess the co-benefits of the results uptake, e.g., the
likelihood of improved wellbeing, standards of living and reduced vulnerabilities.
4 Scope and structure of RMF
The RMF’s five-level structure is based on the results chain concept deriving from the NDF Theory of
Change (ToC). It measures NDF’s performance in executing the Strategy and the results articulated in
the ToC and is organised around key measurement areas. These measurement areas and the overall
logic underpinning the RMF are presented in Figure 1.
NDF's organisational systems, processes, and capacity determine its performance in managing its
internal resources and processes (Level 5). The effective management of internal resources and
processes leads to better selection, design, financing, and implementation of operations. Efficient
and effective operational performance, in turn, leads to achievement of results in key priority areas
of the Strategy and increases the performance of the quality of completed operations of the projects
(Level 2-4). Level 1 tracks development progress in the countries, regions or clusters of countries as
articulated in the Strategy.
9
Figure 1: Scope and structure of the NDF Results Management Framework 2020–2025
Following the NDF Theory of Change
10
model:
Level 1 Country/regional/country cluster development progress based on SDG indicators resulting from
collective development efforts at the country/regional/country cluster level -
Impact
Level 2 - 4 Aggregate results from NDF-supported operations based on
achievement of aggregate results on operational priorities and performance in successfully completing project
level operations.
2. Level (NDF Strategy 2025 – aggregate end results from completed operations at the project level) -
End of Project Outcomes
3. Level (aggregate results from uptake of delivered outputs by end beneficiaries at the project level) -
Immediate Outcomes
4. Level - (aggregate results from delivered outputs to the intended direct beneficiaries at the project level) -
Aggregate Outputs (including enabling outputs)
Level 5 NDF’s organisational and operational effectiveness
5. Level - (NDF’s performance in managing internal resources and processes supporting the operations.
NDF’s performance in selecting, designing, financing, and implementing operations, guided by the Strategy) -
Activities and Inputs
Level 1: Country/regional/country cluster development progress
Level 1 provides the country/regional/country cluster context and information on the long-term
development progress of NDF-funded projects.
NDF uses SDG indicators in Level 1 to monitor long-term development progress (impact) in the NDF
focus countries/region/country clusters resulting from collective development efforts, including
those of governments, the private sector, academia, civil society organisations, and development
partners in addressing the climate change and sustainable development challenges. As such,
indicators at this level do not monitor NDF’s contribution to country/regional/country cluster
development progress. Purpose is to assess whether performance on these indicators has improved,
stayed constant, or regressed
11
and reflect that in continuous monitoring and adaptive management
efforts.
Level 2-4: Aggregate results from NDF-supported operations
This level assesses NDF’s contribution to development results through its completed operations in
the projects. It embodies a shift from attaining outputs to contributing towards outcomes, the
change in behaviour/condition. Measurement at this level focuses on the interrelated areas of
adaptation, resilience and mitigation in climate change, poverty reduction, support for
disadvantaged and vulnerable groups, and improving gender equality.
Results at this level will be captured from both the active portfolio and future approvals.
10
See Annex 2 for NDF Theory of Change.
11
Progress data will be sourced, e.g., from the country/regional SDG VNRs/VRRs.
10
Moreover, results at the output level (Level 4) must be attributed to NDF-funded projects and at the
outcome level (Level 2-3) contribution should be shown, and the intervention logic should embody
the NDF Theory of Change.
Level 2 reflects short-term impacts, the co-benefits of the results uptake, e.g., the likelihood of
improved wellbeing, standards of living and reduced vulnerabilities by the end beneficiaries. This will
be assessed at the project level through qualitative impact studies, project evaluations, end of
project assessments/reviews. This level also captures the aggregate data on GHG emissions
reduced/avoided/sequestered collected as a cumulative figure from all the outcome areas.
NDF Level 2-4 indicators will be cascaded into the NDF-funded project level logframes and results
frameworks by direct use or tagging the tracking indicator to facilitate monitoring, data collection
and reporting at the aggregate portfolio level.
Level 5: NDF’s Organisational and operational effectiveness
NDF aims to manage its internal resources and processes effectively and efficiently to successfully
support the operations. Level 5 measures, with a set of process indicators, NDF’s performance in
delivering on the Strategy in two areas: organisational systems and processes, and organisational
development.
11
5 RMF Timeframe, baseline, and target-setting
The timeframe for assessing performance in RMF is aligned with the Strategy (2020-2025) to
enhance comparability over time and allowing more time to observe changes in performance. Since
this is a first corporate level results management framework with aggregate indicators capturing
data from the entire NDF project portfolio, a midterm review will be conducted to generate learning
and recommendation for the Strategy implementation period.
To function as an effective management tool, the RMF should have targets that are ambitious yet
realistic. Historical data obtained through the baseline assessment and management forecasts,
combined with staff assessment of expected NDF performance, should guide the determination of
target attainability. The extent of NDF’s control over specific performance areas also informs target-
setting. In general, the more control NDF has over performance, the more ambitious the target
should be.
NDF keeps its RMF flexible to allow for refinements based on lessons learned and to accommodate
other indicators and improvements in the future. For example, the RMF indicator framework and the
indicator technical notes that serve as operational documents and are considered as Guidelines for
this Policy, include a few provisional indicators that are strategic but currently lack definitions and
robust data collection methods (indicated as TBD in the Guidelines). This flexibility is particularly
important for areas where, e.g., global agreements are expected, self- and independent evaluation
studies are planned to generate lessons relevant to results management, and provisional indicators
need to be tested before they are formally integrated into the RMF. Periodic reinforcement will
enable NDF to strengthen the RMF as a management tool and to increase the relevance and
credibility of performance assessment.
12
6 Use of RMF
In the NDF performance management realm, results information will be used to improve
organisational performance and to achieve better results. In this instance, results information is used
for planning, tracking progress, learning, accountability and improving evidence-based decision
making. NDF will apply adaptive management approaches, feed-back loops, and periodic check-ins
to judge the need for course correction to improve its RBM in all stages of the project cycle.
The RMF indicator framework and the indicator technical notes that serve as operational documents
and Guidelines for this Policy, steer the application of RMF. The indicator framework will be
cascaded into and/or aligned with the existing and new institutional documents, and project level
logframes/results frameworks, to the extent feasible to ensure consistency of metrics and shared
accountability for meeting corporate and strategic objectives.
Performance against the indicators and targets in the NDF RMF will be reported through an annual
review. The annual review process will serve as a key platform for analysing performance trends,
identifying underlying issues, and reflecting agreed actions with the stakeholders, such as the NDF
Board, and strategic partners. The findings will inform NDF’s operational directions and resource
planning. Actions undertaken to address findings in previous years will be reported in subsequent
reviews.
The RMF information represents a consolidated picture of NDF’s corporate performance and is not
expected to demonstrate NDF’s contribution to specific country outcomes. However, during
reporting, to give context to the progress narrative, reflections on NDF focus country/region/country
cluster progress will be presented (Level 1 in the RMF). This information will be sought from
SDG
reports
12
and national, regional as well as global progress reports on development commitments.
More detailed performance at the country/regional level, however, will be communicated through
individual project level monitoring and reporting.
7 Commitments
The RMF indicator framework and the indicator technical notes serve as operational documents and
Guidelines for the Policy and support its implementation. These documents provide the complete
metrics, measurement guidelines and references for each selected indicator and specify indicator
level definitions, rationale, specific calculation formulas, limitations, disaggregation, gender equality
considerations, among other aspects.
Through its global networks and the strategic partnerships, NDF seeks to advance and promote the
principles of results-based management broadly amongst its partners. NDF’s commitments at the
institutional and at the operational levels, respectively, are presented as follows.
Institutional level commitments:
• NDF will ensure that the staff will have sufficient knowledge and understanding of results-
based management and the RMF in order to successfully support the application and use of
RMF, including the Guidelines during the entire project cycle of the NDF-funded projects and
activities.
• Staff capacities will be further developed through training, as needed.
• NDF will ensure that the resources needed for implementing the Policy are available.
12
SDG reporting refers to the act of publishing and disseminating data and statistics on the SDG indicators for
key stakeholders - SDG National Reporting Initiative 2021
.
13
Operational level commitments:
• The use of RMF is required in all NDF-funded projects and at all stages of the project cycle.
8 Governance and accountability
The Policy entails the following responsibilities within NDF. The Board of Directors (Board) shall
assess the appropriateness of the Policy and its alignment with the prevailing strategy and other
relevant circumstances. NDF’s Managing Director (MD) shall have the overall responsibility to ensure
the implementation of the Policy including sufficient resourcing. The Director, Quality Assurance and
Reporting has the responsibility for the day-to-day monitoring and implementation activities of the
Policy, including capacity of staff.
NDF staff shall ensure that NDF-funded projects adhere to this Policy and the Guidelines and are
expected to liaise with relevant stakeholders and partners on issues relating to the RMF and results-
based management, as well as to participate in relevant networks, in accordance with their roles
within the organisation.
9 Policy review
As knowledge and recommended practices around results management constantly develop, this
Policy will be regularly revised and updated as deemed relevant. NDF Management will periodically
assess and recommend when a revision of the Policy and the Guidelines is relevant.
Annex 1: Definitions
13
Activity: action taken, or work performed, through which inputs are utilised to realise specific results.
Assumption: assumption is a significant external factor or condition that needs to be present for the realisation
of the intended results but is beyond the influence of the project and its partners. Assumptions are often
positively formulated risks. (see also Driver)
Attribution: can be claimed when comprehensive evidence proving the cause-and-effect relationship between
the project and the observed results is presented.
Contribution: can be claimed when compelling evidence is presented that supports a cause-and-effect
relationship through which intended collective results are achieved by the combined efforts of more than one
project.
Driver: is a significant external factor that, if present, is expected to contribute to the realisation of the
intended results of a project. Drivers can be influenced by the project and its partners. (See also Assumption)
Effect: is a change which is a consequence of an action or other social, economic, political, or environmental
cause. These changes can be intended, unintended, positive, or negative.
Evaluation: is the systematic and objective assessment of an on-going or completed project, programme,
strategy or policy (i.e., ‘entities’), its design, implementation, results and likelihood of impact.
Impacts: are long-lasting results arising, directly or indirectly from a project. In NDF’s projects, impacts are
intended and positive long-lasting changes and must relate to NDF´s mandate and purpose.
Impact Pathway / Causal Pathway / Results Chain: these all describe cause and effect relationships between
inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes and impacts and are the basis of a programme/project’s “Theory of
Change”.
Indicator: is a quantitative or qualitative measure that provides a simple and reliable means to assess results.
Attributes of good indicators is that they conform to the ‘SMART principles (Specific, Measurable, Achievable,
Realistic and Time-Bound)
Inputs: the financial, human, and material resources required for project implementation.
End of Project Outcomes: are changes (i.e., changes at the outcome level beyond the Immediate Outcome(s))
that are required to contribute towards the achievement of the intended impact of a project.
Lessons learned: reflect the new knowledge or understanding gained by the experience of implementing a
project that is applicable to, and useful in, other similar contexts.
Logical Framework (or logframe): is a tool for summarising a project or programme’s intended results. It
specifies project results, indicators and their baseline and target values. The format or content of a logframe
may vary from one organisation to the other.
Mid-Term Review/Evaluation: is a formative evaluation performed towards the middle of the period of
implementation of a project or a programme.
Monitoring: is a continuing function that uses the systematic collection of data on project /programme
implementation (e.g., completion of activities and results (outputs and outcomes), rate of expenditure,
13
The definitions take into consideration NDF’s own practice and different sources (e.g., UNSDG and OECD
DAC).
15
emergence of risks, meaningful participation of intended beneficiaries, etc.) to provide management with
indications of the extent of progress against plans, targets as well as learning for adaptive management.
Immediate Outcome(s): is the use (i.e., uptake, adoption, application) of an output by intended beneficiaries,
observed as a change in institutions or behaviours, attitudes or conditions.
Output(s): is the availability (for intended beneficiaries/users) of new products and services and/or gains in
knowledge, abilities, and awareness of individuals or within e.g., institutions, companies. (Outputs are viewed
from the perspective of the intended beneficiary or user of the output rather than the provider).
Portfolio: group of projects and/or programmes that share a common characteristic relevant to the
organisation’s strategic objectives and/or a group of synergistic projects contributing to a common outcome(s)
and managed in a coordinated way to obtain benefits not available from managing the projects individually.
Project: is a time-bound intervention with a specific funding envelope that addresses a defined set of results
within an identified implementation context and geographic area. The main components of the project must
be interlinked/interdependent to achieve the project outcome(s).
Qualitative Indicator(s): are verifiable indicators that use categories that can be ranked or compared to assess
changes such as judgments, opinions, perceptions, or attitude. This can be quantified, and it can include
statements that are answered with yes or no.
Quantitative Indicator(s): are verifiable indicators that can be measured numerically e.g., numbers,
percentage, rate, and ratio.
Results-Based Management (RBM): is a management strategy by which all actors contributing directly or
indirectly to achieving a set of results, ensure that their processes, products, and services contribute to the
desired results (outputs, outcomes, and impact).
Results Management Framework (RMF):
is a tool to facilitate results-based management (RBM), learning and
performance improvement and provides the basis for results and evidence-based monitoring and reporting.
Annex 2: NDF Theory of Change
Advancing Nordic
leadership
Providing catalytic
finance for launch and
scale
NDF organisational
development support
Developing early-stage
project design and
structures
Cities and
human
settlements
equipped with
solutions for
increasing
climate- and
disaster-
resilience and
adaptability
Climate- and
disaster-
resilient
infrastructure
assets and/or
services
established
and/or
improved
Sustainable
solutions for
natural
resources
management,
conservation
and ecosystem-
based services
established
and/or
improved
Affordable clean
energy access
solutions
facilitated
Solutions for
increasing
sustainable and
clean energy
capacity and
energy
efficiency
supported
Sustainable
water–energy–
food security
solutions
established
and/or
improved
Climate- and disaster-resilience and
adaptability of cities, human settlements
and infrastructure strengthened
Natural capital and water–energy–food
security nexus enhanced
Access to and production of affordable
and sustainable clean energy increased
Improved socio-economic
conditions of individuals,
especially women and
girls, vulnerable to
climate change
Reduced vulnerability of
individuals, especially
women and girls,
to
climate related
shocks/hazards
Individuals, especially
women and girls, with
decreased vulnerability
to resource depletion due
to climate change
GHG emissions reduced, avoided or
removed/sequestered
Countries, and especially the vulnerable populations, are resilient and adapt to the adverse
impacts of climate change
Countries with reduced emissions and
accelerated global journey to a
climate-
neutral future compatible with the Paris
Agreement
Increased capacities, improved skills and
raised awareness
Direct/indirect jobs supported or created Additional climate finance mobilised
Aggregate results from NDF supported operations
NDF
processes
Impact
• Continued international commitment towards the Paris Agreement
and Agenda 2030, evidence-based and science-supported decision
making, political stability in countries, and developed economies
adherence to commitments to provide adequate support including
climate finance.
Outcomes
(End of
Project)
• Sustained political support
for climate action at
country/regional level.
• Limited project impact of
external extreme events.
Outcomes
(Immediate)
• NDF-financed solutions,
approaches, measures and
technologies are used by
the intended beneficiaries,
especially women and girls,
and pilots/catalytic
initiatives are scaled up by
the beneficiaries.
Outputs
Strategic
Activities
Outputs
(Enabling)
• Countries' access to data, research, sustainable technologies, quality
education and skills development.
• Country governments, private sector and development partners.
promote inclusive growth.
• Enabling environment for sustainable business development.
Drivers
Theory of Change – Nordic Development Fund
• Efficient and effective
development stakeholder
coordination.
• Development stakeholders
balanced resource and
support allocation.
• Partnerships are used to
leverage climate finance
and increase likelihood of
impact.
• Effective partnerships are
continued and expanded.
Assumptions
• Conducive legislative and policy environment for sustainable natural
resources management, conservation, ecosystem-based services and
water– energy– food security nexus solutions.
• National and local authorities strengthen disaster risk management,
climate change adaptation and resilience plans and strategies.
• Energy efficiency and clean energy solutions supported by enabling
policies, legislation and regulation.
• Women and girls as agents of lasting change supported in NDF-
funded activities. Vulnerable and marginalised groups meaningfully
participated in the spirit of leaving no one behind.
• National policy and legislative frameworks enable and incentivise
private sector participation in NDF-supported sectors.
• NDF is an effective and efficient organisation, that structures its key
strategic activities and processes around the delivery on its 2025
Strategy, mandate and development policy context.
• NDF promotes country-driven approaches among stakeholders,
partners and beneficiaries, based on meaningful participation and
principles of gender equality, equity, diversity and inclusion.
Degree of influence
