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Border Policy Research Institute Publications Border Policy Research Institute
Winter 2022
The Impact of COVID-19 Test Requirements on Cross-Border The Impact of COVID-19 Test Requirements on Cross-Border
Travel: A Case Study of Blaine, WA Travel: A Case Study of Blaine, WA
Laurie D. Trautman
Border Policy Research Insitute, Western Washington University
Follow this and additional works at: https://cedar.wwu.edu/bpri_publications
Recommended Citation Recommended Citation
Trautman, Laurie D., "The Impact of COVID-19 Test Requirements on Cross-Border Travel: A Case Study of
Blaine, WA" (2022).
Border Policy Research Institute Publications
. 130.
https://cedar.wwu.edu/bpri_publications/130
This Border Policy Brief is brought to you for free and open access by the Border Policy Research Institute at
Western CEDAR. It has been accepted for inclusion in Border Policy Research Institute Publications by an
authorized administrator of Western CEDAR. For more information, please contact [email protected].
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19
TEST REQUIREMENTS ON
CROSS-BORDER TRAVEL:
A CASE STUDY OF BLAINE, WA
BORDER POLICY BRIEF VOLUME 17, WINTER 2022
Canada’s Testing Policy
Timeline at Land Border
1
August 2021
Vaccinated Americans with negative
PCR test can enter Canada
November 8, 2021
US lifts restrictions for vaccinated
Canadians, no test required
November 30 to December 20, 2021
Canada exempts vaccinated
Canadians from pre-arrival testing for
trips less than 72 hours
December 21, 2021
Canada reinstates PCR test
requirement regardless of trip
duration
February 28, 2022
Canada allows antigen test for
vaccinated travelers
INTRODUCTION
The COVID-19 pandemic brought new and unprecedented requirements
for cross-border travel. In Summer 2021, after more than a year of
restrictions on ‘non-essential’ travel, Canada began allowing vaccinated
travelers with a negative PCR test to enter and return for discretionary
purposes and without quarantine. However, testing requirements for entry
to Canada continue to uctuate, with the latest change going into effect
February 28th, 2022 (see sidebar). This Border Brief uses the case study
of the land border between British Columbia and Washington State to
explore how different testing regimes may impact cross-border travel.
BACKGROUND
Whatcom County, Washington, has long beneted from its location
adjacent to the Canadian border. In pre-pandemic years, nearly 12 million
trips were taken across the border from Canada, with roughly 7 million
of those made by Canadians bound for Whatcom County. These short,
frequent visits provided an economic advantage to many local businesses.
The border restrictions reduced these ows by 80%, virtually erasing a key
source of revenue for the County, which had devastating effects on some
businesses and communities.
2
HOW DID TESTING IMPACT TRAVEL?
On November 30th, 2021, the Canadian government exempted fully
vaccinated Canadians who traveled to the US for less than 72 hours from
the testing requirement.
3
This exemption was in place until December
21st, 2021, when it was revoked in response to the rise of the Omicron
variant. The following week, US entries dropped by 54%.
4
Reinstating the
PCR test requirement, which is costly and was difcult to schedule, heavily
depressed cross-border trips.
Figure 1 (next page) shows the number of passengers entering the US
at Blaine from July 21 to December 2021. In a typical pre-pandemic year,
volumes increased by 13% from November to December. In 2021, they
increased by 68%, bolstered largely by the temporary testing exemption.
In a similar comparison, volumes typically dip in January by around 15%.
In January 2022, when the PCR test requirement was reinstated, the
number of people crossing dropped by a much larger percentage.
5
These
comparisons illustrate how changes to testing requirements may impact
cross-border travel in the region.
ENDNOTES
1. The US and Canadian testing and vaccination requirements varied by age, and Canada had additional requirements for unvaccinated
minors. See BPRI, “Emerging from the Pandemic: Understanding the Canada-US land border requirements” (2021).
https://cedar.wwu.edu/bpri_publications/129.
2. See previous BPRI studies, available at https://cedar.wwu.edu/bpri_covid19/.
3. Note that unvaccinated minors were still subject to quarantine upon return to Canada.
4. Based on data from the Cascade Gateway Data Warehouse, https://www.cascadegatewaydata.com/.
5. Based on data from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Cascade Gateway Data Warehouse.
6. See BPRI, “Passenger Flows through the Cascade Gateway: Changes from 2013 to 2018” (2019). Border Policy Research Institute
Publications. https://cedar.wwu.edu/bpri_publications/114.
WWU is an equal opportunity institution.
To request this document in an alternate format,
please contact [email protected]
wwu.edu/bpri
Dr. Laurie Trautman
201 Canada House, MS 9110, 516 High Street
Bellingham, WA 98225 USA
Laurie.T[email protected] • 360.650.2642
HAVE SHOPPING PATTERNS CHANGED?
Over the last decade, BPRI has conducted ongoing
license plate surveys to capture the distribution
of Canadian cars at shopping locations along the
Interstate 5 (I-5) corridor.
6
This data has been used
by local planning agencies, regional businesses, and
chambers of commerce to gauge where Canadians are
shopping, and their inuence on the local economy
and transportation routes. Our last license plate survey
was conducted December 11th and 12th 2021 when the
pre-arrival testing exemption for short trips was in effect.
This exemption did not apply to Americans or third
country nationals. Similar to pre-pandemic studies, the
biggest draws for Canadians remain Costco, Ross, Silver
Reef Casino, and Trader Joe’s, followed by downtown
Blaine. Overall, Canadian shoppers at survey locations
dropped from an average of 13% of parking lot
occupancy to roughly 7%. However, it is promising that
some Canadians resumed cross-border shopping visits,
after an extended period and ongoing restrictions.
CONCLUSION
It is difcult to predict if and when the region will
return to the cross-border travel volumes and patterns
experienced prior to the pandemic. The fact that
Canadian shoppers returned to previously popular
locations when exempted from pre-arrival testing
suggests that some locations will likely continue to
benet from Canadian consumers as border restrictions
ease. However, the friction created during the border
restrictions will have a lasting effect on cross-border
travel, as many Canadians have re-oriented their
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
July
August
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
January*
Passengers
Passengers entering Blaine, US,
July 2021-January 2022
consumer behavior away from the border over the
last two years. The local economic dependence on
cross-border consumers, which increased in the post-
9/11 years, will undoubtedly be recongured by the
restrictions. As Canada continues to loosen restrictions,
travel volumes are likely to increase, but will continue
to be inuenced by the state of the pandemic, sub-
national restrictions, and of course, border policy.
Figure 1. Passengers entering Blaine, WA, July 2021 to
January 2022. *January data is based on preliminary
estimates from data collected at the port.
